Stories written by Yilmaz Akyuz

Beyond the Millennium Development Goals

The United Nations’ Post-2015 Development Agenda should not simply extend the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), or reformulate the goals, but focus instead on global systemic reforms and secure an accommodating international environment for sustainable development.

Emerging Economies – From Easy Money to Hard Landing?

Before the world economy has been able to fully recover from the crisis that began more than five years ago, there is a widespread fear that we may be poised for yet another crisis, this time in emerging economies.

The Uncertain Future of the World Economy

Five years into the crisis, growth in the U.S. is still below potential, Europe is struggling to pull out of recession and major emerging economies are slowing rapidly after an initial resilience during 2010-2011.

Are Developing Countries Waving or Drowning?

More than five years since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the world economy has shown few signs of stabilising and moving towards strong and sustained growth.

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Reconsidering Policies and Strategies in the South

There are numerous reasons to believe that the forces that have been driving growth in developing and emerging economies since 2009 cannot be sustained over the medium term. At the same time, it is impossible to return to the extremely favourable international economic conditions that prevailed before the eruption of the global crisis.

Reconsidering Policies and Strategies in the South

There are numerous reasons to believe that the forces that have been driving growth in developing and emerging economies since 2009 cannot be sustained over the medium term. At the same time, it is impossible to return to the extremely favourable international economic conditions that prevailed before the eruption of the global crisis.

Is the Staggering Rise of the South Sustainable?

Growth in developing economies (DEs) has accelerated significantly in the new millennium.

Global Economy: Prospects Are Bleak Almost Everywhere

Global economic conditions continue to have a strong bearing on production, trade and investment in developing economies. In this respect the current landscape is not very encouraging. After three years of recovery the world economy still remains highly fragile. The short-term outlook predicts contraction in several advanced economies in Europe. Growth in others, including the U.S., is weak and erratic. But more importantly, medium term prospects are bleak almost everywhere.

THE END OF RECOVERY AND THE START OF A NEW GLOBAL DOWNTURN

It is growing increasingly likely that the world will face renewed risks of instability and slowdown before fully recovering from the so-called Great Recession. This is largely because the fragility and imbalances that have built up over recent years as a result of misguided policies in the US and Europe cannot be easily undone, regardless of the policy pursued today.

THE THREATS OF THE BOOM-BUST CYCLE

As in previous episodes, a key factor in the current boom in capital flows to developing and emerging economies (DEEs) is a sharp cut in interest rates and a rapid expansion of liquidity in the major advanced economies (AEs), notably the US. This first occurred in a coordinated way after an agreement at the April 2009 G20 summit in London as a countercyclical response to the crisis. In the US, recovery started in summer 2009 but the strong growth of nearly 4 percent in the first quarter of 2010 slowed to less than 2 percent in the second quarter. The response of the US Federal Reserve was to initiate another round of quantitative easing through purchases of long-term treasuries and other securities. Although the declared objective was to stimulate private spending by lowering long-term interest rates and raising asset values, this move has also been widely seen as an effort to weaken the dollar and stimulate exports.

IMF PRIORITIES AND POLICIES NEED URGENT REFORM

Much of the recent public discussion on the International Monetary Fund has been about the successor to Dominique Straus-Kahn and the flawed system of choosing its chief.

THE BOOM IN CAPITAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CAN TURN INTO A CAPITAL PUNISHMENT

An unusual feature of the global financial crisis is that for developing countries (DCs) the financial band seems to have picked up the pace of the music. While many advanced economies (AEs) continue to encounter debt deflation, financial stringency and risks of insolvency, the financial problem for most DCs is asset inflation, credit expansion and currency appreciations. Except for a brief interruption in 2008, DCs have continued to receive large capital inflows as major AEs have responded to the crisis caused by excessive liquidity and debt by creating still larger amounts of liquidity to bail out troubled banks and governments, lift asset prices and lower interest rates.  Quantitative easing and close-to-zero interest rates are now generating a surge in speculative capital flows to DCs with higher interest rates and better growth prospects, creating bubbles in foreign exchange, asset, credit and commodity markets.

WHERE IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HEADED?

After a deep and widespread contraction in economic activity and a significant drop in output and employment, policy makers, financial analysts, and media pundits all appear to be heartened by the news from different parts of the world that the worst is over. The main concern now is about the strength and the shape of the recovery.