JAPAN-POLITICS: Murayama Makes Way For ‘New Leadership’

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Jan 5 1996 (IPS) - The resignation Friday of Japanese Prime Minister, Socialist Tomiichi Murayama, is unlikely to see any major shift in Tokyo’s foreign policy, but his touted Conservative successor is expected to shake up domestic politics.

In a surprise announcement, the 71-year-old Marayama told a televised news conference that he was stepping down because the time had come for Japan to have “new leadership” in a move that some political analysts interpreted as an admission of defeat in dealing with the economic problems now facing the country.

“Murayama could not wait to give up his position. The problems Japan faces today are too much…” commented Manabu Shimizu, head of the Institute of Developing Economies, a quasi-governmental economic institution.

Murayama, who was at the helm of a three-party coalition since June 1994, is expected to be succeeded by Minister of Trade and Industry Ryutaro Hashimoto, who heads the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) — the dominant partner in the ruling coalition.

Sakigake, the third party in the Left-Right coalition, is headed by Finance Minister Masayoshi Takemura. His reassurances that the government would remain intact, is indicative that Hashimoto’s succession will be smooth.

Hashimoto, 58, known in the United States as a hard-nosed negotiator — exemplified by the tough stance he took during auto- trade dispute discussions — is not the conventional Japanese politician.

In contrast to the usual deferential, consensus-seeking Japanese style, Hashimoto stood his ground against U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor, blocking U.S. efforts to obtain a specific share of the auto market.

Japanese newspapers applauded his tough stance, describing it as an example of how Japan must from now on conduct its affairs.

“For Kantor and the Americans, it may have been the first time that they met a Japanese minister who was clear on the details of what he was negotiating,” Makoto Utsumi, a former vice-minister of finance, was quoted saying about those talks.

Unlike Japan’s demure politicians, Hashimoto is widely described as assertive to the point of arrogance — and before the cameras as well, having excelled in his clear, concise answers during live television debates on policy issues.

In contrast to Murayama whose honesty and simplicity won him high marks at the beginning, Hashimoto has a reputation for being tough and ambitious.

So that while Murayama’s clean reputation initially won the hearts of the Japanese public, Murayama’s strong character is now seen as the answer to the country’s current economic slump.

According to separate surveys published by two leading Japanese dailies on Thursday, an overwhelming majority of Japanese were dissatisfied with how the country was being run. The ‘Mainichi Shimbun’ said 64 per cent of the respondents are hoping for a strong political leader to change the status quo.

“He is good for Japan right now. We need a man who can lead Japan confidently in this difficult period,” says Takeo Nishimura, a 42-year old company employee.

But it will be a difficult year ahead for Hashimoto, who is expected to be confirmed leader of the government next week. Indeed, even though elections are not constitutionally due till mid-1997, some analysts do not rule out a vote this year.

His present popularity ratings will at least drop some notches when he inks his name on a hugely unpopular bill that would commit the government to dip into public funds to bail out several Japanese banks and housing loan agencies mired in more than 800 billion dollars of bad debts.

The bill, which is to be debated in the Diet next week, is considered to be one of the bitter pills that must be swallowed in order to pull Japan out of its longest post-war recession.

Unemployment has risen, hitting a post-war high of 3.4 per cent in November — that is 2.8 million people from Japan’s labour force are out of work, the highest since 1953.

Presuming he does assume the premiership, his next potentially unpopular act may come in April when Japan hosts U.S. President Bill Clinton. Tokyo and Washington are expected to announce a new strategy under the current Japan-U.S. Security Treaty that forms the backbone of Asia’s defence.

But there is growing opposition to the presence of the U.S. forces following the rape last year of an Okinawa schoolgirl, allegedly by three U.S. troops who are now on trial.

Okinawa Governor Masahide Ota reiterated this week that the military presence on the south-western Japanese island must at the very least, be trimmed down. Ota has refused to sign documents needed for the continued compulsory lease of land to the U.S. military.

“I want to continue to appeal to the Japanese and U.S. governments…not to make the U.S. bases permanent or to strengthen them,” Ota said in his New Year message.

On the foreign policy front, analysts expect little change largely because Japan’s “faceless” bureaucracy, with which Hashimoto has built up close ties, will continue to set the tone. “That is why Japan is so stable,” said David Power, Editor of BBC Japanese television. ”

Shimizu, of the Institute of Developing Economies, predicts a period of stability in the event of Hashimoto taking over. “The goodwill he has earned with the bureaucracy and business will enable him to control his position.”

And despite, indeed because of Hashimoto’s hard-nosed approach, Washington would probably genuinely welcome his assumption of power — if only because he could turn around the Japanese economy.

He will need that support — not only for the tough economic decisions ahead, but on the domestic political scene as well.

The Opposition party Shinshinto, which is led by an equally ambitious politician, Ichiro Ozawa, is pushing for an early general election.

And while Murayama has said his successor should come from the LDP, the rank and file of the Socialist party will view the passing of power to the Conservative leader as a major blow that may also impact on the party’s chances at the next elections.

JAPAN-POLITICS: Murayama Makes Way For ‘New Leadership’

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Jan 5 1996 (IPS) - The resignation Friday of Japanese Prime Minister, Socialist Tomiichi Murayama, is unlikely to see any major shift in Tokyo’s foreign policy, but his touted Conservative successor is expected to shake up domestic politics.
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