TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: MP’s Defection Throws Political Scene Into Confusion

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Wesley Gibbings

PORT OF SPAIN, Apr 17 1997 (IPS) - Just 17 months after elections which resulted in a coalition government, the political structure of this twin-island republic has changed significantly as politicians continue to cross the floor.

What started out as an indecisive 17-17-2 result in the general election of November 1995 has now become a 17-15-3 (one seat is vacant) state of confusion.

One seat became vacant a month ago when the incumbent, the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) leader Arthur Robinson, was appointed president of the country.

Two Opposition Peoples National Movement (PNM) Members of Parliament have now declared themselves “independent” and become government ministers and one National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) MP this week resigned from the party but has retained her ministerial portfolio.

The upshot of all of this is that the United National Congress (UNC)/NAR coalition of November 1995 now no longer officially exists and has been replaced by a coalition comprising four distinct units — the UNC plus three “independents.”

This has placed the sometimes recalcitrant NAR, which ran the country from 1986 to 1991, in a rather difficult position. “I have always indicated that the NAR is committed to the coalition arrangement,” party leader Nizam Mohammed says. But political scientist Dr Hamid Ghany is asking: “What coalition?”

So, too, are many other people including opposition leader Patrick Manning who has taken the Speaker of the House of Representatives to court over his refusal to declare the seats of the two PNM defectors vacant.

Significantly, a high court judge ruled Monday that Manning had established an “arguable case” and that the matter should be heard in full by the court.

In the event Manning succeeds, the UNC will have to return to its reliance on Sports Minister Pamela Nicholson who left the NAR this week because she did not support her party’s choice of candidate for the upcoming May 5 by-election to choose Robinson’s successor.

Should that candidate, controversial radio talk show host Morgan Job, win the seat — as is widely expected — Nicholson may well have to share space in the cabinet with him. This, in turn, may create another dynamic and increase the potential for further conflict in the politics.

Meanwhile, the outspoken former school teacher, says she is supporting NAR defector Winford James in the upcoming by-election. “He is the man we consider to be the best candidate,” she told reporters.

Should James win and the Manning action prove successful, Nicholson could become the single most important political personality in the country, holding the dice in yet another coalition arrangement.

Prime Minister Basdeo Panday is acutely aware of the possibilities. “In politics you learn to expect anything and to deal with it as the situation arises,” he says.

Panday’s skills in that area are now no longer being contested by close observers here. He is known for beating off successive challenges to his political leadership both inside and outside the government.

The appointment of former prime minister Robinson as president was seen as a ploy to rid the UNC/NAR coalition of any possible contenders for the top government post.

There had been early reports that part of the coalition agreement between Robinson and Panday in 1995 was that Robinson would support the coalition if, upon the termination of former president Noor Hassanali’s term, he (Robinson) would be appointed in that post.

No one has ever denied that such an arrangement had been made and some politicians who were around one and a half years ago remember talk of such an arrangement.

The decline of the NAR so soon after Robinson’s departure might not have been envisaged, but it puts a rather manageable ball in the court of the prime minister. The UNC now plans to firmly set up shop in the NAR stronghold of Tobago.

UNC activists in Tobago have been talking about the “disintegration” of the NAR and discussions have already begun on the leasing of a building for UNC activities, one Tobago source told IPS.

The PNM, meanwhile,is looking at its chances in the Tobago by- election, particularly since Nicholson’s resignation has the potential to severely split the NAR vote. When the PNM campaign was launched on Sunday, the full party hierarchy journeyed to the NAR hinterland.

Should the PNM win in Tobago, succeed in its court case and win the by-election it could find itself back in power in under a year. But that is a lot of “ifs”, the biggest of which is Manning’s ability to effectively marshal somewhat disgruntled troops, observers say.

He has already faced one major challenge to his leadership and the two recent parliamentary defections, because of bad leadership explained the two MPs, have not particularly endeared him to nervous supporters fearing a long stay in the opposition benches.

Panday is said to be telling his friends he has his eyes on no fewer than seven PNM seats. While the diehard PNM support may scoff at the suggestion, not one single political punter is placing a devalued Trinidad and Tobago cent against the ruling party luring even more impatient PNM support in parliament.

Politics, some say, is the art of the possible and this is one time all parties concerned will be hoping for more than a small dose of possibility.