POPULATION-ASIA: Following Japan into a Greying Future

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Dec 30 1997 (IPS) - Asian countries turn to Japan almost on reflex whenever they are stumped by economic problems, but Tokyo may not be their best mentor when it comes to thinking up ways of dealing with a fast-greying population.

This despite the fact that Japan, whose population is ageing faster than those of other industrialised countries, has been grappling with this demographic trend for years.

“The Japanese government is not handling the ageing problem as well as it should,” said population expert Toshio Kuroda of Nihon University, who contributed to a new international study on ageing sponsored by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). “It is difficult to tell other countries they can learn from us.”

Recently, the UNFPA said Asian countries, despite high rates of population growth, will soon be following Japan’s lead and see larger and larger segments of their populations turning grey.

UNFPA researchers say that because of its affluence and lower fertility, East Asia will experience this transition first, followed by South-east Asia and then South Asia. West Asia will be the trend lagger, they add.

“There is a link between economic development and ageing,” UNFPA chief Nafis Sadiq explained during a visit here last month. “With better education and health care and higher standards of living, families will be having less children and people will live longer. It is a natural process.”

Japan has already borne this out. Right after the Pacific War, Japan experienced high birth rates of almost five children per family. Then came rapid industrialisation that, coupled with better education programmes and population policies, encouraged numbers to fall fast. By 1995, Japan’s number of live births was down to 1.1 million, or half the 1946 figure.

Meanwhile, the Japanese were living longer. Indeed, the country now has the highest longevity rate in the world: 77 years for males and 84 for females. By 2015, experts say 25 percent of the country’s population will be 65 years or older.

“The challenge is tremendous,” said a health and welfare ministry official, who is working on a new medical insurance scheme that would make health care more expensive for seniors. “The Japanese government is not capable of coping with the extra burden as things stand now.”

Kuroda says part of the reason lies in the government’s “misconception” that “raising birth rates (alone) will change the ageing process in Japan”. But he said: “This is not the answer.”

The expert says countries like China and India would do well to pay close attention to the mistakes Tokyo is currently making so that they can avoid repeating these in the future.

According to Kuroda, China and India by the middle of the next century will be experiencing what Japan is now going through. Apart from being the world’s most populous countries, the two nations are enjoying high rates of economic rowth.

Kuroda says with the current low birth rates in China — 1.9 children per family — that nation will have seven percent of its population above 65 years of age by 2010. In comparison, India will have senior citizens making up 12.3 percent of its population by 2030.

Other experts say governments will be worrying not only about where to find funds for the medical care and pensions of more and more senior citizens. They say there will be social challenges as well, since many of the elderly will have to cope with living alone — a situation now being faced by 40 percent of Japan’s senior citizens.

While Kuroda says the best way to deal with the problem of a fast- greying population is simply to accept it, he also stresses the importance of seeing the elderly not as a burden but as a group that can still contribute to economic development.

His own research shows that 63.5 percent of Japan’s senior citizens remain healthy and alert because of the country’s higher living standards. Surveys also show that they are eager to maintain their energetic lifestyles.

“This is a healthy sign,” said Kuroda. “The Japanese government must devise new policies that will use these people for economic development and not consider them as a financial burden.”

At present, the retirement age for men in Japan is 60. But Kuroda indicates that this may be too early for many Japanese, and notes that almost all of the country’s senior citizens today are college educated and have worked hard to make Japan into an economic powerhouse. “Their talents can be used for a long time yet,” he argued. “They can provide cheap and reliable labour.”

Tokyo would be better off developing jobs for these people rather than looking into financial support programmes for the elderly, says Kuroda. At the same time, he adds, the government should spend more money for programmes that would keep senior citizens hale and hearty and, therefore, productive.

“Their salaries can be less than the younger workers because they will have their pensions to rely on,” he said. “My calculations show that seniors will be able to hold their jobs till they are 75 years old.”

Kuroda says such a programme could also work in other Asian countries with growing populations of elderly citizens. Said Kuroda: “Our cultures are similar and there is an emphasis in our societies for maintaining long careers.”