POLITICS-SUDAN: The Goal of Reaching Peace Accord by June Looks Unlikely

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Katy Salmon

NAIROBI, May 22 2003 (IPS) - In an effort to hasten progress towards ending two decades of civil war in Sudan, mediator Lazaro Sumbeiywo is drawing up a final peace agreement to present to the two warring parties next week.

"I am developing a final agreement. I am working on it," Sumbeiywo told IPS this week. This is part of the new holistic style of negotiating which begun in the latest round of talks, held in Kenya, which broke off on May 21 with several major issues still unresolved.

"It’s a new method, a new modality, that I am introducing after discussing with the parties and we have agreed that that is the way to go. I am going to consult with their principals," says Sumbeiywo.

The Kenyan mediator will travel to Khartoum to discuss the draft document with President Omar el Bashir and to southern Sudan to talk with Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) leader John Garang.

They will then agree on a date for the next session of talks in Kenya. When the fifth round closed on Wednesday, Sumbeiywo admitted that the goal of reaching a final agreement by June now looks unlikely.

One of the thorniest issues yet to be resolved is that of security arrangements. The government argues that the two armies should be integrated during the six-year interim period agreed upon in last July’s Machakos Protocol. At the end of the interim period, the people of the south will be allow to vote on whether they want independence.

"We have already decided that we will have the country united during the interim period, one of the main pillars for unity, especially in Africa, is to have one country, one army and one command," says Mohammed Dirdeiry, a senior figure at the Sudanese embassy in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya.

"If the SPLA is very clear about this fact – that there should (be) one country and unity during the interim period – we feel that they should appreciate the need for having one army in the country.

"Two armies are a recipe for conflict. This is very clear. We can try to address their concerns if they are seeking any guarantees, but definitely to try to maintain two armies at a time is not something that we can tolerate," he says.

But the SPLA says the two armies should remain intact, separated by a buffer zone at the 12th Parallel, which marks the border between the north and the south.

The SPLA claims the Sudanese army is an Islamic army. "That is the army of the (ruling) National Islamic Front. It is no longer a national army of the Sudan. They purged it since they came to power (in 1989). Most of the army corps now is composed of the Mujahadeen, holy warriors, so why (should) we integrate into an army of a party?" asks George Garang, the SPLA’s Nairobi spokesperson.

"If there is going to be a national army at all, then it has to be constituted after the referendum. We are not talking about integration until the south decides what to do – whether they remain part of Sudan or secede. It is the referendum that will decide whether we have a national army or not," he insists.

This cautious position makes it sound like the SPLA has already decided that secession is inevitable. But Garang insists that is not true.

"There is a possibility, if we genuinely enter into partnership and share power and then the south is developed, people can decide on unity. Let’s see what we can do. We can secede or unite. The two possibilities are there," he says.

Despite their differing stances, Dirdeiry is optimistic that a solution can be found. "This new approach of trying to see everything together at a time, the collective, holistic approach, is assisting us very much to address this issue in particular.

"We are not talking only about security arrangements or only the command of the military. We are linking that also to other issues like the matter of the presidency, who will be the commander-in-chief of the army?" he says.

An equally optimistic Sumbeiywo says, "I have listened to them. I have heard their positions. I am going to merge their positions and I am going to take it to them."

The two sides also need to come to an agreement on the sharing of oil reserves. Sudan’s oil fields have been the focus of the war over the last few years, with the SPLA doing its best to sabotage the pipes while the government has been accused of trying to clear local people from oil-rich areas.

The SPLA says it is entitled to 60 percent of the oil wealth, while the government is willing to offer only 10 percent.

"But since the government is in control of that area we say, ‘Okay, give us 60 percent so that we carry on with reconstruction, rehabilitation and all that’," says Garang,

Analysts are optimistic that a trade off solution can be found to such issues in the final stages. The government and the SPLA also have to come to an agreement on the status of three disputed areas, power-sharing and the status of the capital city, Khartoum.

The SPLA took up arms against the government in Khartoum in 1983 to fight for greater autonomy for the south. Some two million people have since died, mainly through war-related famine.