POLITICS-MIDEAST: Bush Faces a Long and Winding Road

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Jun 2 2003 (IPS) - As U.S. President George W. Bush launches his peace moves in the Middle East, many Arabs are asking whether he really is up for the task.

"Bush faces an unprecedented level of anti-Americanism in the Arab street," says Mohammed Kamal, political science professor at Cairo University. "It’s going to be a very difficult job to win the hearts and minds of the Arab people."

To succeed, says Kamal, Bush will have to convince all parties that the U.S. can oversee implementation of the road map without bias. "Nobody says the U.S. has to be neutral in its relationship with Israel, but it must be neutral in its implementation of the road map," he told IPS.

"This will be difficult given that many elements within the U.S. administration are pro-Israeli and against any kind of pressure on Israel," he said.

Bush himself is confident he will succeed. "I understand that it’s going to be tough, and difficult, but I believe we can handle it," he said in an interview on Egyptian state-run television. "The people got to know that when I say something I mean it."

Bush will hold two summits this week during his first trip to the Middle East since taking office in January 2001. He will meet Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab leaders at the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh Tuesday, and then hold talks with Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in Jordan Wednesday.

The Bush visit is intended to gather support for the Middle East road map, which calls for an end to violence, a freeze on Israeli settlements on the West Bank, and Israeli troop withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The plan drawn up by the Bush Administration with support from the European Union, the United Nations and Russia envisions the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005.

"When I come to the region I come with peace in mind and the possibilities of peace between the Palestinians and Israelis," Bush said in the interview. "We’re serious about our intentions."

The road map will challenge Israelis and Palestinians to end 32 months of bloodshed, but more than anything, it will test the resolve of Bush as a peace broker. Disliked by most Arabs for ordering the invasion of Iraq, Bush faces an uphill battle convincing sceptics he is serious about peace.

"We hate him and we don’t trust him," says security guard Hani Shafiq. "Does he really think anything will make us forget the children killed by American bombs in Iraq?"

The U.S. war on terrorism had already provoked a wave of anti-U.S. sentiment among Arabs and Muslims. Many see the road map as a public relations effort to restore the U.S. image.

Palestinian and Arab leaders have accepted the road map. Some analysts believe Bush will have a tougher time persuading the Israelis to act on it, despite the support for the road map that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon finally announced.

"There’s no reason to speak about obstacles between President Bush and Arab leaders, because all Arab leaders attending the summit have agreed to the road map," says Emad Gad, political analyst at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. "Bush will face obstacles convincing the Israeli side."

Israel has insisted that Palestinian refugees must relinquish their right to return home. It also wants the Palestinian Authority to disarm Hamas and other militia groups as a first step.

Arab support for the road map does not come without reservations. A large section of the Arab media has argued that the document guarantees Israeli security by forcing Palestinians to surrender their only bargaining chip before any negotiations.

"The logic of the road map begs the logical question: if Israel’s security is totally guaranteed and the Palestinian militias are disarmed, what cards would the Palestinians then have to play in their final status talks with Israel?" political analyst Kareem Kamel says in an article for IslamOnline.net.

Another view is that the road map as an opportunity for both sides to end the violence while saving face before their people. "The Palestinians and the Israelis have something of a saviour in the person of Bush," says Jordan Times columnist Ahmad Majdoubeh. "Not only do they have a golden chance to put an end to a very vicious, very nasty, cycle of violence, they also can rescue themselves from further embarrassment and failure."