POLITICS: Burma on Diplomatic Offensive, Little Effect So Far

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - By Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Jul 7 2003 (IPS) - Stung by criticism from its neighbours, Burma’s junta has launched a diplomatic offensive against mounting international pressure, especially from Asian countries, to release Aung San Suu Kyi immediately and resume the dialogue process with the opposition leader.

Both Burma’s Foreign Minister Win Aung and Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win are on separate whirlwind tours of the region, urging the governments of South-east Asia to be patient and give the generals in Rangoon time to get the national reconciliation process back on track.

Both Khin Maung Win and Win Aung have been appointed special envoys to Burma’s top general Than Shwe.

They have asked to see most of the leaders of Asia and are carrying personal letters from Than Shwe and an album of photographs of the opposition leader since she was detained more than a month ago to show that she is in good health and not being held in the notorious Insein prison.

In this strategy of photo diplomacy, the envoys are urging the Asian leader to allow Rangoon to introduce political and economic change in its own way and not put a deadline on Aung San Suu Kyi’s release.

Suu Kyi was detained and put under ‘protective custody’ after a violent attack on her group outside Rangoon on May 30, an incident that critics and dissidents blame on pro-government vigilantes.

At their June summit in Cambodia, the foreign ministers of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) told their Burmese counterpart that they expected the opposition leader to be freed by mid-July – a month after the summit.

It was an informal deadline. But it has stung Burma’s military rulers, who had counted on their Asian neighbours’ support to resist the growing moves in the United States and Europe to increase Rangoon’s international isolation.

Khin Maung Win has already been to Bangkok, where he met Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Foreign Minister Dr Surakiart Sathirathai. He has also gone to Tokyo, where he met Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi, and Kuala Lumpur where he met Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. He is scheduled to visited Singapore and Jakarta.

Meanwhile the other envoy, Win Aung, has already visited Beijing and Dhaka. He plans to travel to Delhi, but is awaiting official approval from Indian authorities.

So far, Burma’s photo diplomacy seems to have produced few results.

In Japan, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi snubbed the Burmese envoy and refused to see him ”There’s no way the prime leader could have agreed to meet a senior Burmese government minister while Aung San Suu Kyi is in prison,” said a government official.

Foreign Minister Kawaguchi told her Burmese visitor that nothing less than Aung San Suu Kyi’s immediate release will satisfy the Japanese government. If that did not happen soon, she warned Khin Maung Win, then Tokyo would have to consider suspending all economic cooperation.

Immediately after Aung San Suu Kyi was detained, Japan stopped all new humanitarian and development aid. Now, Tokyo is threatening to suspend all financial support, including trade and investment.

The Burmese deputy foreign minister’s current mission is primarily aimed at the ASEAN countries. But the photo album and Than Shwe’s personal letters are unlikely to have much impact, as many South-east Asian leaders have made it clear that nothing short of the immediate release of the opposition leader and the resumption of the national reconciliation process would be acceptable.

At present, Burma is more anxious to scotch the possibility of an ASEAN ministerial mission visiting Burma and insisting on seeing the opposition leader.

At the Cambodian summit, ASEAN foreign ministers agreed in general to send a ministerial mission to Rangoon to impress upon Burma’s top generals that they must release Suu Kyi and restart talks with her. It is now up to Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda whether the mission goes ahead or not.

Rangoon knew that the United States and Europe would step up pressure after Aung San Suu Kyi was put under protective custody in late May. But it has been taken aback by the vehement reaction from their neighbours who they had come to believe were unbending allies.

For ASEAN now, Burma has become a major international embarrassment that has tarnished the organisation’s reputation internationally – and could affect the region’s tourist industry and economic recovery.

”Burma is a dilemma for ASEAN, which must be tackled now,” Indonesia’s Hassan Wirajuda reportedly told his colleagues in Phnom Penh last month.

There is no doubt that Asia – ASEAN and Japan – are now committed to increasing pressure on Rangoon’s generals to introduce economic and political change as soon as possible.

By dispatching two envoys to Asian capitals, Rangoon has shown that it does care about international pressure.

Now Burma is trying to use a form of photo politics internally. The state-run media – which seldom runs photographs of the opposition leader – suddenly ran a picture spread showing Aung San Suu Kyi meeting Burma’s top military leaders during the weekend. The newspapers sold out within hours as people ran to purchase their souvenir editions.

One interpretation of the photo essay is that it is meant to convey an impression of a honeymoon period between the two sides, one that was destroyed by Aung San Suu Kyi’s combative approach that the regime says led to the violent events of May 30 in the north of the country – and the opposition leader’s subsequent detention.

But it could just as easily be the regime’s first step in an attempt to prepare the Burmese people for a significant change – real, substantive talks with Aung San Suu Kyi once she is released.

It is far too early to tell which interpretation may be correct, but it certainly reflects a battle within Burma’s top military leadership over what to do with Suu Kyi.