POLITICS: China Gives Burma Support, but Also Urges Change

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - By Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Aug 26 2003 (IPS) - Burma is beginning to find itself more isolated now than it has ever been since the generals seized power 15 years ago. Even Rangoon’s closest ally, Beijing, has warned Burma’s military rulers that economic and political change is essential if the two countries are to continue to develop together.

”China’s greatest concern is regional security,” said a senior Western diplomat in Beijing . ”Having seen the break-up of the former Soviet Union, they are anxious to prevent anything that might lead to the same process on their own borders.”

There is no doubt that from Beijing’s perspective that Burma’s lack of development – political and economic – poses a medium to long term threat to the regional security of the region.

This was one of the key issues which emerged during last week’s visit to China by Gen Maung Aye, Burma’s second most important military leader.

Although largely a military visit, China’s leaders discussed Burma’s internal situation at length with Gen Maung Aye. After all, he is one of the three men who run the country.

Until a year or so ago, Gen Maung Aye was also nominally in charge of the economy. It is the lack of economic development which is currently worrying China’s policymakers. They fear economic shortages could lead to social unrest – and this is something that worries Beijing most.

On the face of it, General Maung Aye seems to have been wined and dined as a close ally. His visit featured prominently in the Chinese press, and his itinerary also included a meeting with China’s top leader Hu Jintao.

This was largely unexpected as the Burmese army chief is not the head of state and does not hold a key post in the government – but he is head of the army.

”General Maung Aye’s high-level reception reflects how important Beijing sees its relationship with Rangoon,” said an Rangoon-based Asian diplomat. ”But below the surface there are mounting tensions between the two sides.”

While Beijing and Burma are close allies, there is no doubt that China does not endorse the Burmese military regime unquestioningly. President Hu Jintao and the other Chinese leaders used the opportunity of Gen Maung Aye’s visit to underline their concerns in their discussions.

Statements issued after the two key meetings during the visit – one with Hu and the earlier one with state councillor and former foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan – seem to reiterate Chinese support for Burma’s military rulers.

”The current domestic situation in Myanmar is the country’s internal affairs, and China does not agree with foreign interference or sanctions,” Tang was quoted as saying by the state-run Xinhua news agency on Aug. 21.

But a close reading of the Chinese leaders comments reveal their growing concerns about Burma’s future.

In their public statements, China’s leaders stressed Beijing’s support for a friend who they expected to be stable. They also said they supported the national reconciliation process, urged the Burmese government to develop the economy and improve the peoples’ living standards.

Hu Jintao said: ”As a friendly neighbour China hopes Myanmar will remain stable, its ethnic groups will live in harmony, it economy will keep growing and the Myanmar people will live in happiness.”

This is more than a veiled criticism of the current government and its policies. For sometime now, the Chinese leaders have regarded Burma’s military regime as potentially unstable.

”It is a regime without legitimacy,” a senior Chinese diplomat based in South-east Asia said privately to IPS ”This lack of legitimacy will lead to political instability and could pose a major threat to regional stability in the future.”

China is also concerned at the lack of economic development – not only because China regards economic development as the cornerstone of political stability, but because economic growth and prosperity of China’s south-western areas depends on the growing economic relationship with its neighbour Burma.

This can only happen if Burma’s economy also develops and maintains strong growth.

Instead of mutual prosperity, Burma’s growing economic crisis poses a major threat to regional security. ”Burma is a economic basketcase,” a Chinese diplomat recently confided.

China’s policymakers and planners have not forgotten their experience in Burma nearly two years ago when Jiang Zemin made his state visit. ”Mobile phones did not work, fax, machines did not work – nothing worked,” said a Chinese diplomat involved in the trip.

For Beijing, the issue is how to influence Rangoon without endangering their close relationship. It is not the Chinese way to exert pressure publicly – at least on their friends. But Beijing has made it clear to the Burmese leaders that they regard political and economic reform as essential for continued stability.

”Maung Aye was told that Aung San Suu Kyi should be released immediately and a political dialogue with her and the NLD (National League for Democracy) started,” a Chinese source in Beijing revealed.

The Chinese leaders, according to sources in Rangoon, see this as a first step in a process of political liberalisation.

They have advised Burma’s leaders that they must deal with the opposition leader and accommodate her. But they have also told Rangoon that Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD need not be seen as the be all and end all, and they should also be starting a real dialogue process with other political parties and ethnic groups.

”China supports ASEAN (Association of South-east Asian Nations) on the Myanmar (Burma) issue,” China’s foreign minister Li Zhaoxing told Asian and European counterparts at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Bali a month ago.

In effect he was telling the other foreign ministers that China’s policy endorsed the ASEAN approach and supported the organisation’s view that Aung San Su Kyi should be released immediately and the national reconciliation process resumed.

In the past 12 months or more, Chinese leaders have repeatedly said Beijing supports the efforts of the U.N. envoy Razali Ismail’s efforts to break the political deadlock in Burma.

But though Beijing is committed to seeing political and economic change in Burma – it wants to see it introduced gradually. It fears, as do Burma’s generals, that speedy democratic change could lead to social unrest and instability – something Beijing feels must be avoided at all costs.