Africa, Headlines, Human Rights

POLITICS-GUINEA: What Future for the Opposition?

Lansana Fofana

CONAKRY, Jan 6 2004 (IPS) - “The elections were fixed. We know that Lansana Conte was re-elected through fraudulent means and so his tenure cannot be legitimate,” remarks Ba Mamadou, Chair of the Revival Front for Democratic Change: a coalition of opposition parties that boycotted last month’s presidential poll.

Mamadou, who also heads the Union of Democratic Forces, did not specify what action the coalition (also known as FRAD) would take. But, he said discussions were underway to adopt a common position “and harmonise our strategies as to what to do with General Conte”.

“There is no doubt that Conte and his Unity and Progress Party (PUP) have killed democracy in Guinea. Our people must resist this tendency,” he told IPS.

Fantamady Conde, another opposition militant, called for civil disobedience: “We can’t resist Conte by violent means. His ruthless militants and sections of the army may come down hard on the people.”

Conte, who has ruled Guinea for the past 20 years, is sick and bed-ridden – although this didn’t stop him from sweeping to victory in the Dec. 21 election with 95.63 percent of the vote.

Several opposition parties announced last November that they would boycott the poll. Guinea’s Supreme Court then disqualified almost all groups from being able to contest the election, on the grounds that they had failed to pay a registration fee of 10,000 dollars.

Ultimately Mamadou Boye Barry of the Union for National Progress was the only other contender to join Conte in the race. Barry is widely-believed to have received support from the PUP in a bid by the ruling party to legitimise the election.

While Interior Minister Moussa Solano claimed a turnout of about 83 percent, other sources reported widespread apathy on the part of voters. The poll was also marred by reports of violence and mass arrests of opposition militants.

Moussa Camara, a tailor in Conakry, is cynical about the election: “I did not even bother to vote because I knew it was all a sham. For me Conte’s re-election will change nothing.”

Says Ousmane Diallo, a hawker, “The situation here is hopeless. The elections were simply a mockery of democracy – but what else could we do?”

Although opposition leaders won’t comment extensively on their post-election strategy, they do appear to be counting on the donor community to force Conte’s hand by freezing aid to Guinea. It is hoped this may lead to dialogue with the opposition.

“We will continue to talk to our donor friends to block aid to the government because it doesn’t have the legitimacy of the people,” says Bailor Bah, a political leader in the capital – Conakry.

This step was already taken by the European Union prior to the election, when it decided to withhold 345 million dollars in assistance to the West African country.

Part of this aid package had been set aside to fund the election under an agreement that required Guinea to set up an independent electoral commission, and allow presidential candidates equal access to the state media. Conakry failed to meet these demands.

As yet, regional leaders have not taken any position on Conte’s re-election – although some did raise concern about the opposition’s lack of participation in the poll.

For Conte’s supporters, though, it is business as usual. They have been celebrating the president’s victory, and argue that he is the person most capable of leading the country.

“With Conte in power, our country has remained relatively stable while our neighbours – Sierra Leone, Liberia and Ivory Coast – are beset with problems of war,” Mma Doumbuya, a housewife, says.

At least some of Liberia’s difficulties can be traced back to Guinea, however. The New York-based Human Rights Watch, and the International Crisis Group (ICG), located in Brussels, have drawn attention to Conte’s role in sponsoring a Liberian rebel group: Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD).

According to the ICG, this support has contributed to tensions along the border between Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The organisation notes that combatants in the region have “unpredictable allegiances”, and that they could be put at the disposal of officers in the Guinean military who might wish to stage a coup.

Conte is not unaware of this danger, and spoke in October last year of “ambitious officers who are plotting to seize power by force.” Whilst he may have won another term in office, it appears that his future is far from secure.

 
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