POLITICS-GREECE: Democracy Runs Again in the Family

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Hilmi Toros

ISTANBUL, Feb 9 2004 (IPS) - Greece is heading towards a hotly contested national election where all that is certain in its ‘hereditary democracy’ is that the next prime minister will again be either a Papandreou or a Karamanlis.

The battle between the two political dynasties was renewed last weekend after Prime Minister Costas Simitis, seen as a sure loser after a record eight years in government formally ceded leadership of the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) to his popular foreign minister George Papandreou.

Papandreou (‘The Third’), grandson and son of previous heads of Greek governments now battles it out with Costas Karamanlis (‘The Second’), nephew of a venerable former prime minister who later became president.

It is a close contest for the March 7 elections. The result could affect relations with neighbour and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ally Turkey, and stability in the volatile eastern Mediterranean.

Simitis bowed out after a poll showed that PASOK was trailing the conservative New Democracy (NP) party of opposition leader Costas Karamanlis by as much as nine points.

Simitis received high marks for Greece’s entry into the Euro zone, the accession of Cyprus to the European Union (EU) and infrastructure modernisation ahead of the 2004 Olympics to be held in Athens.

But PASOK was also held responsible for many ills during the years of its long governance. These range from complaints over failure to institute welfare reforms to high unemployment and charges of inadequate health and education services.

Enter the affable and charismatic U.S.-born George Papandreou, and it is a new ball game. Polls still show NP in the lead, but with the lead reduced to two to five points.

George Papandreou, or “Yorgakis” (Georgie), has just taken over the mantle of the party founded by his father Andreas. Despite his party’s relatively poor standing, Papandreou is already seen by the Greek public as the most suitable candidate for prime minister, drawing 38.3 percent support in polls to 36.9 percent for Karamanlis.

But Papandreou still faces an uphill battle in lifting the party’s fortunes to the level of his personal popularity. Highly regarded for his diplomatic skills and his rapprochement with traditional adversary and neighbour Turkey, he needs to convince the electorate that he can deliver on issues Greeks care about most: poverty, crime and unemployment (officially 9 percent and the main concern of 65 percent of Greeks).

Whoever wins, Greek politics is in for a profound change. The next prime minister will be the youngest in modern history. Papandreou is 51 and Karamanlis 48. Both understand the need for reforms; a current poll finds that only 20 percent of Greeks have faith in political parties.

“The post-1974 party model (after the collapse of the military junta) is in crisis,” says Stavros Lygeros from the daily Kathimerini. “It has degenerated into a bureaucratic apparatus which is unwilling and unable to meet social demands through a cohesive political plan.”

Papandreou has already begun something of a political revolution. After being designated party leader by Simitis and the PASOK apparatus, he sought further approval for the first time from 140,000 PASOK party members and even others considering themselves “friends of PASOK”.

He received unexpectedly strong endorsement from PASOK workers and supporters, garnering more than a million endorsements, seven times the number of registered party members.

Papandreou called this first move of its kind “participatory democracy” and the “new ethos”. But the process has its critics. Some commentators say the move diminishes the traditional role of the party and makes its standard-bearer less accountable to checks by the party. And they say it can lead to a “personality cult”.

That Papandreou was the sole candidate made the selection more a ‘plebiscite’ than a contest. Former conservative prime minister Constantine Mitsotakis said the procedure was “Stalinist” or in line with the practice in “Middle Eastern regimes”.

National commentator John Psaropoulos says the NP is in the lead because “people are willing to try a new team, however inexperienced, just to get rid of the old. Mr. Papandreou, in effect, has to behave like an opposition to the old elements of his own party. The more he does that, the more votes he will tear away from New Democracy.”

Papandreou ran into a political storm even before taking over doing exactly that. He scratched 10 PASOK deputies including a deputy minister from the re- election list after they were found involved in supporting legislation tailored to suit a real estate developer.

Issues will sharpen as the contest heats up, but Karamanlis is already hammering away at unemployment, reported corruption and the heavy bureaucracy under the decade-long PASOK administrations. He says he would overhaul the healthcare system to make it more accessible.

Papandreou has proposed tax cuts to spur business, and a revamped bureaucracy. He also stresses education, women’s issues and mutual cuts in defence spending with Turkey to free funds for economic growth. He is also wooing the votes of the Muslim minority of Turkish origin in Thrace in the north.

On the international scene, a Papandreou victory would continue his opening to Turkey and could lead to concrete steps in settling Greek-Turkish disputes over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea. Karamanlis is considered more nationalist than Papandreou.

Simitis had company in making room for the new. The veteran Mitsotakis (86) also announced he will not seek another term in the parliament he first entered in 1946. This added pressure on other ‘barons’ to step down, although Karamanlis’s uncle Achilleas resists the idea of retirement.

In the hereditary democracy of Greece, the next generations are appearing already. The daughter of Mitsotakis, Dora Bakoyannis, is the mayor of Athens (she is considered a potential NP leader) and his son Kyriakos is up for his election debut. Mitsotakis himself was the nephew of the 1920’s statesman Eleftherios Venizelos.