POLITICS-EUROPE: Spain Tilts the Power Balance

By Julio Godoy Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Julio Godoy

PARIS, Mar 17 2004 (IPS) - The Socialist triumph in Spain last Sunday has transformed the balance of power within Europe in favour of France and Germany, who have been pleading for a common foreign policy independent of the United States.

French and German relations with the government of George W. Bush have been strained for a year following the invasion of Iraq without an international mandate.

The Iraq war had divided Europe with France and Germany opposing the U.S.. actions, and other European countries including Britain, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Denmark supporting the war.

This schism led the U.S. Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld to speak of an “old Europe” comprising France and Germany, and a new Europe supportive of U.S. military plans.

A year ago on March 16 Bush met former Spanish prime minister José María Aznar and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in the Portuguese island Azores to draw up final plans for the invasion of Iraq. After a swift military campaign, the U.S.-led war ousted former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein.

But within the last week, the European political equation has changed dramatically. The new Spanish prime minister elect José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE after its Spanish name) called the war on Iraq and its occupation a “disaster”.

He urged “George Bush and Anthony Blairàto reflect and engage in some self-criticism, so things like that don’t happen again.”

Zapatero did not mince words. “You cannot go bombing peoples just in case,” he said. He declared he would “take Spain out of the Azores trio.”

Following that, France renewed its criticism of the war on Iraq. French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin said Monday that the decision to wage war against Iraq “was a mistake, I would even go as far as to say that it was a grave blunder.” The very language used by the leaders was indicative of a renewed resistance to the United States.

De Villepin added that the war against Iraq had turned that country into a source of instability nourishing terrorism. “The first source for terrorism right now is the Middle East crisis (provoked by the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories), and the second one is Iraq,” he told media representatives.

Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission, the EU executive, also criticised U.S. policies. “The war against Iraq was waged in the name of fighting back terrorism,” Prodi said in a statement. “But terrorism is infinitely more powerful today than one year ago.”

Karsten Voigt, EU Social-Democratic commissioner for relations with the United States said “our opposition against the war in Iraq has been confirmed by the events over the last one year.”

Official statements are in line with popular opinion. A new opinion poll shows that European distrust of the U.S. role in Iraq has sharpened over one year..

The poll published March 16 by the Pew Research Centre and conducted in late February and early March in several European countries confirms that the gap between the United States and Europe has deepened since the war against Iraq.

According to the survey, 75 percent of people in France, 63 percent in Germany, and 56 percent in Britain want a more independent European policy on security and diplomatic affairs.

The poll also established that most people in France, Germany, Russia and even Britain see the U.S. government as untrustworthy.

The election in Spain has also led to new troubles in problem-ridden Iraq. Zapatero has announced that his government would withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq by June 30 unless they were kept there by a UN mandate. Zapatero reiterated that stand Wednesday.

The right-wing government of Aznar had sent some 1,500 soldiers to Iraq. They are based in the southern and central zone of the country under the command of a Polish general.

The Spanish troops are the second largest contingent in the Polish controlled zone, and the sixth largest in Iraq. The U.S. and the Polish government faced serious difficulties last year in convincing other countries to send troops to Iraq. Poland itself has sent 2,500 soldiers.

Polish ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Jerzy Nowak has admitted that withdrawal of Spanish troops would “provoke serious complications.” But he said Poland would be able “to continue commanding the multinational troops in (the Polish controlled) zone in Iraq” after June 30 even if Spain withdraws its soldiers.

A U.S. plan to appoint NATO to lead the military occupation of Iraq is unlikely to win much European support. Germany and France have rejected the plan, and the new Spanish government is unlikely to approve it. The United States continues to enjoy Poland’s declared loyalty. But the Spanish political turnabout has meant a political and diplomatic backslash for the right-wing Polish government of Prime Minister Leszek Miller.

As in all European countries, the war against Iraq was extremely unpopular in Poland. New opinion polls suggest that Polish participation in the “coalition of the willing” has taken a toll on Miller’s government in Warsaw. Less than 10 percent of the population approve Miller’s stand, polls indicated this week..

For Poland the democratic change in Spain brings a setback also in its relations with the European Union (EU). Poland is among ten new countries set to join the EU May 1.

Under Aznar, Spain and Poland were together in seeking a more substantial power share within the EU. Both countries had opposed the draft constitution for Europe on the grounds that it would give them a smaller share of power within the EU than that given through the Treaty of Nice in December 2000.

The draft constitution seeks to determine this vote on the basis of a country’s population size. That would reduce Polish and Spanish votes in relation to Germany and France.

Zapatero says his government will seek agreement with Paris and Berlin on the constitution.

“Spain is going to work harmoniously together with France and Germany to approve the excellent draft constitution,” he said. “My ambition is to work for European unity, and that Europe works to defend international legality.” Spain’s stand will also weaken Poland’s case.

That leaves Britain and Italy still supporting the United States firmly. But the governments in these two countries hardly look as convincing as they try to sound.