POLITICS-TAIWAN: Ties with China Overshadow Issues in Poll

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Antoaneta Bezlova

TAIPEI, Mar 19 2004 (IPS) - When people of the democratically-governed island of Taiwan head for the polls Saturday, all domestic issues will be overshadowed by a single, external matter – how to deal with the island’s giant neighbour, China.

When people of the democratically-governed island of Taiwan head for the polls Saturday, all domestic issues will be overshadowed by a single, external matter – how to deal with the island’s giant neighbour, China.

The slide of Taiwan’s vibrant economy into recession, growing unemployment, ethnic disputes and other domestic concerns are bound to be on the backburner when 23 million Taiwanese vote to choose their next president on Mar. 20.

What to do with China – Taiwan’s number one trade partner and yet ultimate military threat – would determine the balloting.

Incumbent Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, is locked in a close race against the opposition Kuomintang candidate Lien Chan, seen as leaning toward unification with the mainland.

The election however took violent turn Friday when Chen and Vice President Annette Lu was shot while campaigning. Chen’s camp issued a statement saying campaigning was being suspended and asked supporters to avoid ”emotional confrontations” with the rival camp.

The debate about unification, for decades a feature of Taiwan’s politics, has reached a peak in the run-up to the vote.

Some find the idea of independence a heady one. ”Taiwan is my country, China is not,” says Chou I-jen, Chen’s top aide. ”Even though my ethnic background is quite similar to the people on the mainland, we are different. If President Chen wins, he will do his best to build up Taiwanese identity and the identity of the state.”

But others like Liang Kuang-chung, a public servant, urge caution. In an interview, he says: “Suppose Beijing lets go and gives us a green light to be independent. How can we imagine our future development without China? China is our biggest and most important market. Our prosperity hinges on that market.”

In the second breath, he adds: “For one thing, they (Beijing) would never let go because they can not afford to lose minority provinces like Tibet and Xinjiang. If Taiwan that is ethnically-Chinese gets independence, then imagine what would happen with those provinces whose people are not?”

Taiwan’s policy toward China is such a crucial issue that Chen has announced a referendum to solicit public opinion, to be held also during the Saturday vote. It will ask voters whether Taiwan should beef up its defences if China refuses to dismantle some 500 missiles pointed at the self-ruled island.

The second question will ask voters to endorse a government proposal to open talks with mainland China on a framework for ”peace and stability” across the Taiwan Straits.

Chinese leaders have insisted that before discussions or formal cooperation begins, Taiwan must agree that it is an inseparable part of China. The Taiwanese president has refused to accept Beijing’s precondition. The bitter stalemate over sovereignty has existed since 1949, when defeated Nationalist troops of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek sought refuge on the island from the onslaught of Mao Zedong’s communist guerrilla army in the mainland. China regards Taiwan as a wayward province and reunification between the mainland and the island remains one of the pre-eminent goals of the ruling Chinese regime. Beijing has pledged to attack the island if Taiwan declares formal independence or refuses to re-unite.

Taipei, by contrast, insists that 20 years of democratic reforms have transformed the island dramatically, nurturing a new identity among young people. Any change in the status quo between the Straits might endanger not only the democratic momentum but also the very existence of free Taiwan, people here feel.

But Beijing sees the holding of a referendum on any issue related to Taiwan’s territorial status as a dangerous one that may see the island rejecting eventual reunification with it one day.

”The Taiwanese authorities have been trying to push for a referendum aimed at Taiwan’s independence under the pretext of democracy,” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told a news conference at the close of China’s Parliament annual session last weekend. ”We firmly oppose any attempt by any people to split Taiwan from the rest of China by any means.”

Chinese leaders have avoided showing preferences for any of the candidates in Taiwan’s elections, but Beijing has made no secret of its dislike for Chen Shui-bian.

Beijing fears that harsh rhetoric on Chen might boost support for him in the coming elections as it did during the 2000 one, when Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won over the Kuomintang and he became Taiwan’s first pro-independence leader. In light of this political environment, opposition presidential candidate Lien Chan says he will set aside political disputes with China to expand bilateral commercial relations and invigorate the economy. The leader of the Nationalist party, or Kuomintang, Lien has offered to go on a ”journey of peace”, if he wins the elections Saturday.

Not all are convinced though. Lee Chang-ting, a supporter of Chen Shui-bian, explains: “My parents came from the south, from Taichang. The South is all for Chen. We don’t like the Kuomintang. Since I was a child, my family hated the Nationalists. We couldn’t speak our language at school, and had to live with the fear of their ‘white terror’. I would never vote them into power again.”

Still, Lien has attracted support from the Taiwanese business community, which has invested millions of dollars in the mainland’s economy. He has promised to negotiate direct transportation links with China and the setting up of a free trade zone.

By election day, more than 150,000 Taiwanese businessmen, many of them Lien Chan’s supporters, would have interrupted their mainland business commitments to return to Taiwan and vote.

Sensing popularity for the pro-unification Kuomintang leader, Chinese officials have hurried to promise a bright future for the proposed free trade zone with Taiwan. A massive free trade zone covering the mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau would have a huge impact on all Asian economies and promote economic integration throughout Asia, says one of China’s senior trade experts.

Following the signing of free-trade agreement with Hong Kong and Macau last year, a similar mainland-Taiwan arrangement needs to be worked out as soon as possible to prevent budding cross-straits business from withering, says Zhang Hanlin, a senior trade professor at the University of International Business and Economics.