POLITICS-BURMA: Conflict at Top Levels Puts Reforms in Doubt

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - By Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Apr 28 2004 (IPS) - Burma’s ‘national reconciliation’ process or road map to democracy is in deep trouble, and the much expected release of the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest has now become an increasingly dim hope.

”We are not expecting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s release any time soon,” U Lwin, the spokesman for Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party, said. ”Although we are always hopeful”.

Mixed signals are coming from Rangoon, though the military regime is still making some concessions to the opposition. Earlier this week, the regime allowed the NLD’s full Central Executive Committee to meet, including Aung San Suu Kyi, at her house.

Diplomats in Rangoon believe that this is because the top military leader, Senior Gen Than Shwe, has taken control of the national reconciliation process and Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has been forced to take a back seat. Than Shwe’s antipathy towards Aung San Suu Kyi is well-known and he sees no need to rush the political reform process.

The first significant sign that the military regime’s ‘road map’ to democracy was facing major problems was Rangoon’s withdrawal from the international forum on Burma, known as the ‘Bangkok Process’ originally set to be held in the Thai capital at the end of April.

Officially, the Burmese pulled out of the Bangkok meeting because it was too close to the start on May 17 of the National Convention, tasked to draft a new constitution for the country.

”Burma’s reluctance to face the international community at this stage probably means that there has been a hiccup in the preparations for the National Convention,” said a Rangoon-based diplomat.

It also signals a growing rift between the two top generals over how to proceed with the national reconciliation process.

Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt has repeatedly told diplomats and the U.N. envoy Razali Ismail that he understood the need to make the process inclusive and involve the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the NLD.

But Senior General Than Shwe has made no secret of the fact that he thinks there is no role for the political parties in drawing up the constitution and that they should not be involved in the process until after the constitution is adopted.

At the moment, the regime is waiting for the NLD to decide whether it is going to participate in the National Convention. Invitations have already been sent out to some 30 members of parliament, including two of the party’s top leaders who were recently released, U Aung Shwe and U Lwin.

But the other two leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, still under house arrest, have not been invited.

”The party cannot decide anything on the NLD’s participation in the National Convention until the Central Executive Committee is allowed to meet to discuss it,” NLD spokesman U Lwin explained to journalists on the eve of their executive committee’s meeting on Apr. 27.

The meeting, though, failed to agree on whether the NLD would participate in the convention and the party says it will make its final decision when it meets again in the near future. ”We will be discussing this issue further,” U Lwin told journalists in Rangoon this week.

The NLD still has some time to decide. The government has ordered all convention participants to register personally at the convention centre outside Rangoon by May 15.

”As long as free debate and discussion is allowed at the National Convention, the NLD could participate,” said U Lwin.

Meantime, Aung San Suu Kyi is likely to remain under house arrest at least until the NLD’s position on the convention is clarified. ”It is even possible that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi won’t be released till days before the National Convention is due to convene,” said a Rangoon-based diplomat.

But there are growing signs in Rangoon that the military leaders intend to proceed with plans to draw up a new constitution without Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD.

This has always been a real option in the minds of the top generals. ”The National Convention will go ahead with or without Aung San Suu Kyi,” said a senior military intelligence officer earlier this year.

But as far as Burma’s neighbours and Asian allies are concerned, the ball is now in the NLD’s court. ”They need to be more realistic and practical in their approach, and not simply stand on their principles,” a senior Japanese diplomat told IPS.

The Chinese say privately that it is up to the opposition to make the concessions at this stage. ”If Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD do not agree to participate in the National Convention, then Beijing will not be able to do anything to help them,” a Chinese government official said privately.

At present, the NLD does seem to be in a conciliatory mood.

”Everything is negotiable, including the six principles, provided free debate and discussion is allowed at the National Convention,” said U Lwin. Privately, some NLD leaders have been saying that the issues of the role of the military in Burma’s political future and the qualifications of the president are all matters for discussion.

But the National Convention will only be drawing up the principles upon which the constitution will be based. The real issue in the short run is who will draw up the constitution – and how. In the end, this may be the way forward for both the opposition and the regime.

On several occasions now, Razali has suggested to both sides that an overseeing committee be established with representatives from two sides as members.

Aung San Suu Kyi could then participate in the process without actually attending the National Convention, though this formula assumes that there would be NLD representatives in the convention. At a later stage, leaders from Burma’s ethnic minorities could also join, and make the process a tripartite one.

In practice, this option would mean the establishment of a parallel dialogue process. So far, the regime has not reacted to this suggestion. In the end, how fast the national reconciliation process proceeds and whether Aung San Suu Kyi is part of it depends on what Burma’s top generals decide.

Analysts in Rangoon believe Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has lost control of the process and that Than Shwe now calls all the shots. It was Than Shwe who identified the date for the National Convention to reconvene, though Khin Nyunt reportedly wanted it to start in April, before the Bangkok meeting.

Khin Nyunt’s future depends on the National Convention being a success. But whether that happens or not now depends on Than Shwe.

But in Rangoon there are fears that Khin Nyunt has not only been marginalised, but is on his way out altogether. That would not be good news for the pro-democracy parties. For the ethnic minorities, it would be even more disastrous as they see him as something of a champion of their cause and have closely aligned themselves with his star.