TSUNAMI IMPACT: Caribbean to Expand Early Warning System

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Peter Richards*

PORT OF SPAIN, Jan 23 2005 (IPS) - Before Dec. 26 last year, not many people in the Caribbean knew the meaning of the word "tsunami"; but the tragedy in South Asia that unfolded on television screens is now forcing many regional governments to seriously look at establishing early warning systems for the Caribbean.

Before Dec. 26 last year, not many people in the Caribbean knew the meaning of the word "tsunami".

They were aware that tidal waves were capable of crashing over tall buildings, but the tragedy in South Asia that unfolded on television screens around the world is now forcing many regional governments to seriously look at establishing early warning systems for the Caribbean.

While disaster officials say the probability of a tsunami occurring in this region is low, there are two known potential sources – tectonic earthquakes, and underwater volcanoes like "Kick ’em Jenny", located eight kilometres north of Grenada.

A chart developed by tsunami expert James Lander predicts that a wave created by an eruption of Kick ’em Jenny could swamp the entire region within three hours. This is roughly the same time it took the first huge waves to travel across the Indian Ocean to India and Sri Lanka.

Kick ’em Jenny has erupted several times in recent years.

Guyana’s Foreign Minister Rudy Insanally, who acknowledges that his country is vulnerable to tsunamis since it lies several feet below sea level, says it is imperative for the region to join with other countries to come up with strategies to minimise the devastation that could occur.

Trinidad and Tobago, which provided millions of dollars to Caribbean states hit by hurricanes last year, has appointed a committee to review the oil-rich republic’s strategies to deal with natural disasters.

Jamaica, which has suffered two major earthquakes in the last 300 years, has also expressed concern about its ability to cope with an event of that magnitude.

There have been at least eight recorded minor tsunamis in Jamaica since 1688, causing damage to coastal areas of Savanna-la-Mar, Montego Bay, Port Royal and Kingston.

"Our hospitals, even in normal times, cannot handle pressure. Our schools were not designed to be used as shelters and our firefighters lack (the necessary resources) and are not trained for search and rescue," said Barbara Carby, head of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.

Other Caribbean countries have welcomed the coming into force of the Tampere Convention, which will make it easier for victims of disasters to benefit from effective rescue operations.

The convention requires participating states to waive domestic regulations and assist in the importation and establishment of emergency telecommunications equipment to mitigate the impact of a disaster.

"In emergency situations, telecommunication saves lives," said Yoshio Utsumi, head of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the United Nations specialised agency for telecommunications, which, along with the U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), has been a driving force in drafting and promoting the convention.

The Barbados-based Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) says it is working towards establishing an early tsunami warning system in light of the tragic events in South Asia that left more than 226,000 people dead on Boxing Day.

CDERA’s coordinator Jeremy Collymore said the agency has been holding discussions with a number of partners, including the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, the University of Puerto Rico Seismic Network, the University of the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Seismic Research Unit at the University of the West Indies.

CDERA said the focus of the Intra-Americas Sea Tsunami Warning System (IAS TWS) was initially on Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, but the system is now being widened to include the rest of the Caribbean.

"There is already a basic framework that can be used for an early warning system in the Caribbean, which comprise equipment such as tidal gauges established by the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) and an early warning system set up for the Kick ’em Jenny underwater volcano," Collymore said in a statement.

At the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, scientists caution that regional governments should consider several factors before assuming that such a system would be beneficial to the Caribbean.

"Before the region spends valuable resources on setting up new instruments for a tsunami early warning system, we need to strengthen our existing networks and focus on improving public education and communication activities with regard to geologic hazards in the region," says Dr. Richard Robertson, the acting head of the unit.

"Tsunamis in the Caribbean are a hazard but a minor one when compared with other natural hazards that affect the region or to tsunamis in the Pacific. Potentially devastating tsunamis are rare events with a recurrence rate of the order of once or twice per century," he told IPS.

There are two components that are essential for any tsunami warning system, he explained. The first is a network of instruments that allows scientists to rapidly determine when and where potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occur, and to determine whether a tsunami has actually been generated and if so, how big it is.

The second component is an efficient public information and education system that allows agencies to issue tsunami warnings and ensures that the public knows how to respond to these warnings.

"This second component is particularly important since it makes little sense to issue a warning unless people know how to respond," Robertson said.

Over the past 10 years, seismograph networks and communication systems in the Caribbean have improved to the point that it is now possible to detect and locate earthquakes down to about a magnitude 5.5 within a few minutes anywhere in the world.

But Robertson contends that given the long average period between events, it is likely that any system to issue early warning tsunamis would fade away long before the first event occurred.

"If the Seismic Research Unit were to issue a tsunami warning every time there was a shallow earthquake of magnitude greater than 6.5, we would have issued two warnings in our 52-year existence," he said, pointing to the earthquakes east of Dominica in 1969 and Antigua 1974.

"Both of these would have been false alarms since both earthquakes generated tsunamis with amplitudes less than 1 centimetre," the scientist said.

More serious than the potential for false alarms is the issue of tsunami travel times.

If a tsunami is generated by a local source, such as an earthquake located between Trinidad and Puerto Rico, it "will reach the nearest islands within minutes and the whole region within less than an hour," Robertson said.

"In order to have any real benefit from an early warning system we would need to respond within about 15 minutes and contact relevant disaster management officials within another 15 minutes."

"This is not impossible, but it would require that the Seismic Research Unit and all of the disaster offices in the region be manned or readily accessible 24 hours per day. Even then issuing a warning to vulnerable communities in the nearest islands would be nearly impossible," he explained.

*With additional reporting from Kingston, Jamaica by Zadie Neufville.