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POLITICS: Joint-Defence against Terrorism Tops Indian PM’s Agenda in US

Analysis by Ranjit Devraj

NEW DELHI, Jul 18 2005 (IPS) - In the wake of the July bomb blasts in London, it is inevitable that terrorism will figure prominently in the agenda of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the United States; yet the discussions have raised concerns on the sub-continent.

Coming as it does in the wake of the July bomb blasts in London, it is inevitable that containing terrorism will figure prominently in the agenda of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s state visit to the United States.

Yet such discussions during Singh’s passage through Washington – the business end of which begins with a ceremonial welcome at the White House on Monday – have raised concerns on the sub-continent.

What worries many observers and political leaders is just how far the planned joint-efforts to fight terrorism will take the rapidly evolving Indo-US relationship in the direction of a full-fledged military pact between the ‘’world’s two largest democracies.”

Apprehensions have already been expressed by the communist allies of Singh’s Congress-led coalition government as well as by analysts in neighbouring Pakistan over the ‘Framework Agreement for the US-India Defence Relationship’ signed in Washington late June – which sets the backdrop for the summit.

Communist leaders have cautioned Singh not to overstep the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) of the ruling multi-party coalition, which demands that the government maintain the ‘’independence of India’s foreign policy on all regional or global issues” while pursuing ‘’closer relations and engagement” with the United States.

Before emplaning on Saturday, Singh told the media that India attached ‘’the highest importance to further developing and strengthening the strategic partnership with the US, both in the bilateral context as well as to strengthen our partnership to meet global challenges.”

And in an exclusive interview to the state-run TV channel ‘Doordarshan,’ broadcast before the departure, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice confirmed that both terrorism and defence would be on the agenda in discussions that Singh will have at the White House.

Rice said that ‘’as a democracy that is multiethnic and has suffered terrorism itself” India is considered a ‘’very good partner in the war against terrorism.”

India has been the target of frequent bombings by militant groups seeking to liberate the Muslim-majority territory of Kashmir, long under dispute with neighbouring Pakistan which was accorded the status of ‘’major non-NATO ally” by the US for military-to-military relations.

But as links between Pakistan and militant groups resorting to terrorism become exposed, especially after the London blasts, Washington has shown keenness to get India involved in its widening global campaign against terrorism.

Rice said in the interview that Washington would like to see ‘’terrorism devalued as a method of resolving grievances” and welcomed peace initiatives between Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and Singh that may yet allow the nuclear-armed neighbours to settle their long-standing differences across the table.

Soon after the ceremonial welcome, Singh is expected to hold discussions with U.S. President George W. Bush on the ‘Framework Agreement’ that covers joint-military operations in third countries and the patrolling of vital sea lanes.

The agreement sets the scenario for defence-related technology-transfer, collaboration and co-production as well as research and development in sensitive areas like nuclear technology and space and leave behind an era of sanctions that have curbed the export of ‘dual-use’ technology and raw material such as uranium to India.

Singh, who is on his first visit to Washington after assuming office in May last year, will address a joint-session of the US Congress on Tuesday, underlining the importance being attached to the visit by the Bush administration.

But Singh will only be building on the efforts of the preceding, right-wing, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government which signed the ‘Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP)’ with Bush in Nov. 2001, following the Sep. 11 aerial attacks on New York and Washington that year.

Indeed the NSSP provided for ‘’expanded engagement” on nuclear issues, missile defence, space technology and combating the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) – in the first major policy departure from the cold war years which saw India aligned with the former Soviet Union.

Already the NSSP has seen joint-military exercise conducted by the armies, navies and air forces of the two countries in locations as far apart as Alaska in the US and over Agra in northern India.

Since the 9/11 attacks, India which traditionally sourced its defence hardware from the Soviet Union, tripled commercial military purchases from the US from a negligible 5.6 million U.S. dollars to 17.7 million dollars last year and sales are projected to exceed half a billion dollars worth this year.

‘’The 9/11 attacks put pressure on the US to relent on thorny issues, such as lifting an embargo on nuclear technology (imposed on India since 1974, when India first tested nuclear device) and Washington’s ambiguous stand on armed militancy in Kashmir,” said Prof. Christopher Raj, a specialist on Indo-US relations told IPS in an interview.

Raj, who teaches at the department of American Studies at the prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said that just as 9/11 provided impetus for the NSSP, the 7/7 London blasts would serve to remove any residual hesitation in furthering the objectives of the recently signed framework agreement on defence cooperation.

According to Raj, a test of how far Washington would be willing to go may be readily reckoned by possible agreements that could be entered into during the Singh visit on civilian nuclear cooperation, since this would entail acknowledging India as a nuclear power and allowing it to retain its arsenal.

In return, Washington could ask international safeguards on nuclear installations in India, which has refused to sign the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) on the grounds that it is discriminatory and gone ahead with its own nuclear energy programme that does not have depend on uranium imports.

Without a deal on civilian nuclear cooperation, it would be difficult to see India joining the controversial Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) initiated by the Bush Administration and this, in turn, would mean foregoing Indian resources for planned interdiction of vessels suspected of ferrying WMD on the high seas.

The PSI is a limited agreement among just 21 mostly Western states and critics here have said that India’s participation in it is likely to bring it into conflict with its Asian neighbours such as China, Iran, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Raj said the Bush Administration would also like to see Indian involvement in peacekeeping operations in Iraq, which this country has so far resisted. But pressure is mounting on Washington to recruit fresh and credible partners into the ‘war against terror” alliance with key existing ones announcing plans to drop out one after another and withdraw their troops.

That, said Raj, would be the kind of quid pro quo that India must consider if it hopes to realise its ambition of entering the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with US backing – a major item on Singh’s wish list while in Washington.