UKRAINE: Another Election? No, Thanks

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Dec 22 2006 (IPS) - The pro-Western parties in Ukraine, uncomforted by their opposition status, are attempting to regain power through early elections or a constitutional reform. But most Ukrainians, fed up with power struggles, have distanced themselves from their plans.

“People are tired and angry, they know about the political tensions, but everyone feels it’s a top-level tension which should be resolved at the government level,” Tetiana Katsbert, expert from the European Union project ‘Strengthening Civil Society’ told IPS.

For the last months power struggles between President Viktor Yushchenko, head of the pro-Western Our Ukraine Party, and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, leader of the main governmental force Party of the Regions, have prompted Our Ukraine’s exit from the governing coalition.

The pro-Russian Party of the Regions won last March Parliamentary elections ahead of the pro-Western orange parties, including Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine. Following months of negotiations, a “coalition of national unity” with Socialists, communists and, surprisingly, the pro-Western Our Ukraine was formed in August.

The coalition proved problematic since the beginning, as Yushchenko and Yanukovich had been bitter electoral rivals for years. Yanukovich was prime minister in 2004 when a popular revolt against vote-rigging in a presidential election, known to many as the ‘orange revolution’, toppled him and his pro-Russian government.

Yet the Prime Minister is now more powerful than before, with a recent constitutional reform that boosted his powers and diminished those of the President. The allies of a weakened Yushchenko, including three top-level ministers, have gradually been expelled from the governing coalition.

The sacking of Foreign Minster Boris Tarasyuk, who favours joining the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU), was the most controversial decision of the present government.

Yushchenko reinstated the foreign minister, insisting that Tarasyuk, who according to the constitution is appointed by presidential decree, could not have been dismissed by parliament, but members of the Party of the Regions have insisted on the lawfulness of the dismissal.

Elements from the Party of the Regions have twice blocked Tarasyuk from attending a cabinet session. Last Wednesday Tarasyuk was physically blocked, cornered and pushed into another room in the Cabinet of Ministers building.

Yushchenko, surprisingly for a right-wing liberal, struck back by vetoing the 2007 state budget for not guaranteeing the interests of pensioners and other vulnerable groups. The government responded by accusing Yushchenko of populism.

Parliament amended the budget law to conform to presidential wishes, among them the setting of a size limit for member of parliaments pensions, and a rise in the subsistence level and pensions. Seeing all his demands had been met, Yushchenko was finally forced to sign the amended version.

But Yuliya Timoshenko, the main opposition figure, had condemned his decision to veto the budget arguing that in its absence the government, which she describes as “a bandit gang”, would be free to steal funds from the state.

Timoshenko, who became prime minister through the ‘orange revolution’ until Yushchenko fired her, is now calling for a reversal of the constitutional reform and early elections due to what she sees as a “large-scale” political crisis.

In contrast with Timoshenko’s radicalism, Yushchenko rather hopes to recover power by revising or even cancelling the constitutional reform that weakened his powers.

The opposition argues the reform, hastily adopted during the popular uprisings in November 2004, bears procedural violations. The ‘orange’ camp is hoping Ukraine’s Constitutional Court will agree, with the ultimate goal of calling a referendum on a new constitution.

But Our Ukraine is not dismissing the possibility of early elections either. Yushchenko recently strengthened his party by replacing its leadership and nominating close allies to top positions.

Yet it is unlikely a new vote would make Our Ukraine more powerful, as Yushchenko’s party is deeply unpopular among disappointed ‘orange’ voters who think the President betrayed its democratic values by nominating his arch-rival Yanukovich for prime minister.

“Only Timoshenko’s party is clearly interested in early elections. Yushchenko will wait for a decision on the constitutional reform; their popular support is presently too low for elections,” Katsbert told IPS.

But overall, the opposition’s relentless offensive is unlikely to bear results in the near future. “Calling for early elections is unrealistic and won’t bring any benefits to Ukrainians,” Katsbert says. “People don’t feel it would change anything, they perceive these struggles as not being fought for their sake, but for that of high elites.”

According to most legal analysts in Ukraine, there is still no basis for dissolving the parliament and calling early elections, but the opposition is waiting for more mistakes from the government which could justify dismissing the cabinet.

With Timoshenko continuously calling for early elections to capitalise on her current popularity, Yushchenko will hope that with an expected increase in utility prices next year, support for the governing coalition will plunge.

The increases, blamed by the government on the “incompetence” of previous ‘orange’ governments, could cause social unrest and shift popular mood towards the opposition forces.