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ENVIRONMENT: Across the Globe, Warming Viewed as “Critical”

Eli Clifton

WASHINGTON, Mar 14 2007 (IPS) - Climate change is of real concern in all parts of the world, but there is disagreement over whether the problem is urgent enough to require immediate, costly measures or whether more modest efforts will be satisfactory, according to an international poll released Wednesday.

The poll, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org in cooperation with polling organisations around the world, was carried out in 17 countries containing more than 55 percent of the world population, although not all questions were asked in all countries.

Twelve countries were asked whether steps should be taken to address climate change.

Ninety-two-percent of Australians favour measures to combat global warming, making it the country with the largest majority of its population believing immediate action should be taken to reverse climate change.

Surprisingly, China, whose environmental policies are often criticised, and Israel are the next most inclined to favour such measures, with 83 percent of their populations in favour of immediate actions to reverse trends in global warming.

The lowest level of support for taking steps to address global warming was found in India, with 49 percent of the population supporting immediate action while 24 percent were opposed.

Arguments against the validity of global warming as a scientific fact have not fared well, with fewer than one in four people in any country endorsing the statement, “Until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs.”

Countries with the highest percentages favouring inaction include India (24 percent), Russia (22 percent), and Armenia (19 percent).

Countries with the smallest percentages favouring inaction include Argentina (three percent) and Thailand (seven percent).

In a separate question, asked in 10 countries, strong majorities in all of the countries say climate change is an important threat, with small minorities calling it unimportant.

The highest percentage of climate change sceptics are in Armenia (16 percent) and Israel (15 percent).

Majorities call climate change a “critical” issue in Mexico (70 percent), Australia (69 percent), South Korea (67 percent), Iran (61 percent), Israel (52 percent) and India (51 percent).

Larger numbers agree climate change is “critical” in Armenia (47 percent), China (47 percent), and the United States (46 percent) while Ukraine was the only country split about whether the problem was “critical” (33 percent) or “important but not critical” (33 percent).

In five of 12 countries polled, the most common view is “Global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs.” These include: Australia (69 percent), Argentina (63 percent), Israel (54 percent), the United States (43 percent), and Armenia (37 percent).

The most commonly held view in another five countries is that, “The problem of global warming should be addressed, but its effects will be gradual, so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost.”

Proponents of the “go-slow” and “low-cost” approach include: Philippines (49 percent), Thailand (41 percent), Poland (39 percent), Ukraine (37 percent), and India (30 percent).

The polls are split between those who favour less expensive measures and those who believe the problem merits action involving significant cost in China (low cost, 41 percent, significant cost 42 percent), and Russia (low cost, 34 percent, and significant cost, 32 percent).

The poll attempted to address the issues of an equitable approach to climate change by asking sample groups in five developing countries – China, India, Argentina, Armenia and Thailand – “If the developed countries are willing to provide substantial aid, do you think the less-developed countries should make a commitment to limit their greenhouse gas emissions?”

In all five counties majorities say they should but most significant responses were observed in China (a 79 percent majority), and in India (48 percent agree, 29 percent disagree).

All five of these countries have ratified or accepted the Kyoto Protocol to curb greenhouse gas emissions, but are not defined as industrialised countries under the treaty.

Their developing country status under Kyoto means they are not legally obliged to cut emissions of carbon dioxide or other pollutants but could be eligible for various schemes and funds that pay developing countries to reduce carbon emissions. Just last month, a report released by the United Nations called attention to the rising flow of greenhouse gasses released by the economic powerhouses of India and China.

By 2009, says the International Energy Agency, China will have overtaken the U.S. as the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses that are energy-related.

Three developed countries were asked the same question about providing aid to less-developed countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Respondents in all three showed high levels of support for such programmes, with 64 percent of U.S. citizens, 84 percent of Poles, and 72 percent of Ukrainians.

All three countries are considered industrialised countries under the Kyoto accord, but the U.S. has refused to the ratify it, arguing that it would be too costly to the U.S. economy and that large developing countries like China and India are unfairly exempted.

The following countries were included in the poll – China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, Ukraine, Poland, Iran, Mexico, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, Peru, Israel, Armenia and the Palestinian territories.

An additional poll released today by the Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies reinforced the Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll, finding that 83 percent of U.S. citizens now say global warming is a “serious” problem, up from 70 percent in 2004.

The recent poll data suggesting an increased awareness that global warming requires immediate action comes on the heels of a report released last month by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the leading international network of climate scientists – which confirmed the scientific evidence behind global warming and urged prompt action to slow and reverse the dangerous buildup of heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere.