TURKEY: Chilling Mid-Summer Elections Coming Up

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Jacques N. Couvas

ANKARA, May 11 2007 (IPS) - The generals are in their offices, the troops and tanks in the barracks, the students at school, and the tourists in the bazaars. Life in Turkey is back to normal. Abdulah Gül’s decision to withdraw his controversial candidature to the Turkish presidency has made this possible.

Not that embattled foreign minister Gül had a choice. After two consecutive cancellations of the election, on Apr. 27 and May 6, parliament had already decided to suspend the process, to avoid a cul-de-sac similar to that in 1980, which caused a military coup after 115 rounds of ballot casting.

The return to daily routine does not apply, however, to the political class. The impasse caused by the aborted presidential appointment has triggered the mechanism for early general elections, set for July 22, instead of November, as planned, or September, as the opposition had been asking.

Political parties were caught off guard, time for preparation being short. The main opposition formation Republican People’s Party (CHP) has already moved to postpone the elections on the grounds that a large number of voters will be on holidays and unable to cast their voice, but the Supreme Election Board (YSK) has confirmed the date.

Preparation for general elections requires excellent organisation and logistical support, and heavy investment in the media, which is a novelty in comparison with the previous elections when political rallies and radio, rather than TV, where the main weapons of the candidates. This time, international political marketing agencies are being hired to give a modern flavour and efficiency to the campaign.

Open air advertising, a favoured medium, seems threatened because billboards throughout the country have been rented to ice cream and soft drink producers for the whole summer. Innovative ideas for joint promotions with such vendors are floating around. In 2002, Cem Uzan, a businessman with no political past, attracted the electorate with free concerts and doner kebabs. He collected 9 percent of the vote.

Parties have other concerns too. With the exception of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and CHP, political formations are small, fragmented and ideologically dispersed. This has led in the past few days to mergers aiming at creating stronger players in the arena.

The True Path Party (DYP) and the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) have finalised their unification, while on the left CHP and the Democratic Left Party (DSP) are in advanced talks for joining forces. Past attempts for unification among left-wing parties has been unsuccessful.

While parliament is still in session, AKP is trying to get its agenda of constitutional reforms through. The package proposed includes the appointment of the president of the republic by direct popular vote, to take place on the same day as the general elections, together with a referendum to confirm the constitution’s amendment for the presidential appointment by the people.

The package also proposes change of the duration of this mandate from seven to five years, and the life of the parliament from five to four years. This means voters will have to cast three ballots to three different urns at the electoral offices.

It is an ambitious plan, unlikely to be adopted, as both the opposition and the incumbent president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, are not prepared to accept a parliamentary decision in this respect. CHP has already said it will seek its annulment before the constitutional court.

It is more realistic to believe that the presidential election, or a constitutional reform, will be held after the new parliament is in place. This should extend Sezer’s term until much later in the year, a possibility the opposition and Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) are looking forward to.

AKP’s true objective is to reinforce its majority in the new national assembly in order to have the last word in picking the president. The move to early elections is a strategy towards occupying Cankaya presidential palace, once inhabited by Kemal Ataturk.

This is anathema and hubris to the secularists, who resent the idea that Mrs Gül, were she to become First Lady, could share the chambers of the founder of the republic. Hayrunisa Gül, an Islamist activist, has in the past taken Turkish institutions to the European Court of Human Rights in an attempt to reverse the banning of the headscarf in universities in the country. In the event, the ECHR ruled against her claim.

The ruling party speculates that early elections will give it a larger majority than in the current legislature. Observers are, however, increasingly sceptical about this rationale. After TSK’s clear statement of intent to intervene should the secular principles of the republic be threatened, many here believe that the majority of the electorate, including moderate AKP sympathisers, will back a solution that gives the military no reason to step in.

This would mean a weaker AKP and the appointment of a head of state neutral to political parties and politics, which the military and the outgoing president favour.

On the other hand, if AKP’s bluff proves to be right, the political life of Turkey could change dramatically. First, with a strong majority in the parliament, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan may decide to re-submit his candidature for the presidency. His election would be the less painful choice between two evils, for the military and CHP, as he is more moderate than Gül, despite the appearances and the image he has succeeded in creating internationally.

Once in a strong law proposing and making positions – controlling the government, the house of representatives, and the presidency – AKP could press with the reforms that the opposition and TSK fear. These, according to the latter, would include steps to reintroduce religious practices in the public sector.

General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of the general staff, has criticised the government for letting Islamic behaviour grow freely in schools in various parts of the country. The foreign press has also taxed Erdogan and Gül with intentions to Islamise not only Turkey but Europe.

Second, unopposed legislative and executive powers may also give Erdogan a unique opportunity to finish once and for all with the influence of the military in the state’s political affairs, by reforming the constitution in order to clip TSK’s wings. This could easily be attributed to the demands by the European Commission and Parliament for Turkey to act as a Western democracy in order for its application to be converted into membership.

AKP is being considered the likely winner in the elections. The tanks may be in the barracks, but their engines will be running. (IPS/MM/IP/CR/JC/SS/07)

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