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POLITICS: Poor Countries More Optimistic About Future

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Jul 24 2007 (IPS) - Public opinion in most poor countries and Central Europe is generally significantly more optimistic about future living conditions for their children than in wealthy, developed nations, according to newly released findings of the latest Pew Global Attitudes Project (GAP) survey released here Tuesday.

Pluralities or majorities in North America, Western Europe and Japan believe that the next generation in their countries will be worse off than the current one, according to the in-depth poll of 47 nations worldwide. Four out of five French respondents, nearly three out of four Germans, and seven out of 10 Japanese say they expect the next generation to be worse off.

By contrast, pluralities or majorities ranging up to 86 percent in 21 out of 30 developing nations surveyed believe their children will have a better life than their parents’ generation, according to the survey, which was based on more than 45,000 interviews conducted during April and early May.

Led by China, where 86 percent of respondents said life should be better for their children, public opinion among developing countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa is particularly optimistic, according to the survey. The only countries among the 15 Asian and African countries surveyed where pluralities said the next generation will be worse off are Uganda and Tanzania.

Opinions in Latin America and the Arab world, on the other hand, are much more divided. Among Latins, Chileans were the most optimistic, with 62 percent of respondents saying life would be better for their children, and 25 percent saying it would be worse. The numbers were virtually reversed for Brazil, with only 28 percent predicting better and 64 percent worse.

Among Arabs, Moroccans were by far the most optimistic, with 67 percent predicting better and only 13 percent worse, while, at the other end of the scale, a mere 18 percent of Palestinians in the occupied territories predicting their children’s lives would be better and 44 percent worse.

The survey also shows a distinct divide in public opinion between regions which have experienced strong economic growth over the past five years, when GAP conducted a similar interview, and those where growth has been slower or flat.

Where growth has been strong, particularly in most of Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Asia, respondents expressed significantly greater satisfaction with their personal lives, family incomes, and national conditions than they did five years ago.

In those countries where the economy has performed less well, particularly in the U.S. and Western Europe, contentment levels on all three factors were either the same as or reduced compared to five years ago, according to the survey.

“An analysis of changes between 2002 and 2007 finds a correlation between percentage in per capita (gross domestic product) and the share of a nation’s citizens who are satisfied with the way things are going in their country, and the proportion giving positive overall economic ratings,” according to an analysis published with the report.

Non-economic factors, however, clearly played a role in some cases. Although GDP in the U.S. rose at a faster rate between 2002 and 2007 than in the five previous years, satisfaction among respondents with the state of the nation itself declined by 16 percent over the past five years – from 67 percent to 51 percent, presumably a reflection of the impact of Iraq war and the unpopularity of President George W. Bush.

The new findings and the 92-page analysis followed the release last month of the same survey’s findings about attitudes towards international politics the major powers, and global problems.

That report found that the U.S.’s global image, already at historic lows, had fallen further in virtually every part of the world except Israel and sub-Saharan Africa, particularly compared to five years ago and that confidence in other major powers, including Russia and China, had also slipped. It also noted a sharp rise in concern, especially in Europe and Latin America, about environmental threats since 2002.

While levels of contentment have clearly risen in poor countries that have enjoyed strong economic growth, the survey found large percentages in many developing countries where respondents say they were not able to afford needed food, clothing or medical care some time in the past year.

Three percent of West European and 10 percent of U.S. respondents complained there were times they could not afford all three during the past year, compared to 25 percent of Central and Eastern Europeans; 30 percent of Latin Americans, and 32 percent of Africans.

While generally more optimistic about the future, Africans showed the lowest levels of satisfaction in their personal lives and their employment than any other regional group. The survey also found that Africans consistently cited the spread of AIDS and other diseases as “a very big problem” in their countries, although fewer than 30 percent in each of the 10 countries surveyed said they had ever taken an HIV test.

Crime is the dominant issue in Latin America and in a number of African and Asian countries, particularly South Africa, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, with large urban populations. Terrorism was also cited as a major problem by more than 70 percent of respondents in Morocco, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Pakistan, Italy, India and Turkey.

Corrupt political leaders was the issue cited by comparable percentages of respondents in Nigeria, the Czech Republic, Bangladesh, Argentina, Indonesia, Lebanon, and Peru.

The greatest concerns about immigration were expressed by respondents in Italy, South Africa, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. Emigration, on the other hand, was cited as a major problem by at least 50 percent of respondents in Pakistan, Bolivia, and Mexico.

Compared to five years ago, respondents’ confidence in their national governments increased most dramatically in Argentina and Turkey (from seven percent who agreed that “the national government has a good influence” to 61 percent), and Peru (from 27 percent to 64 percent).

The greatest declines in confidence in government, on the other hand, were found in France (from 61 percent to 35 percent), Uganda (84 percent to 61 percent), and Britain (66 percent to 44 percent).

At the same time, respondents in Malaysia (92 percent), China (89 percent), Bangladesh (87) percent) expressed the most confidence in their national governments. Mexico (70 percent) and Bolivia (68 percent) topped the Latin American list; Kuwait (79 percent) and Turkey (61 percent) topped the Middle East; and Tanzania (86 percent) and Kenya (79 percent), Africa.

Respondents with the least confidence in their governments included Egyptians (13 percent), Israelis (23 percent), Poles (28 percent), Ukrainians (31 percent), South Koreans (32 percent). Worst-performers in Africa were Ethiopia (39 percent) and Nigeria (50 percent).