MIDEAST: Olmert Begins to Rival Abbas in Weakness

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Peter Hirschberg

JERUSALEM, Nov 19 2007 (IPS) - An oft-repeated argument in Israel against signing a peace deal with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is that he is a weak leader who lacks the political clout to implement an agreement. But anyone observing Ehud Olmert over the last few weeks might well be making similar assertions about the Israeli prime minister.

This past week he was embarrassed in parliament when an opposition- sponsored bill stipulating that any changes to the boundaries of Jerusalem must be supported by a special majority (80 out of the 120 lawmakers in parliament) passed without any problem. The bill, which was intended to embarrass Olmert ahead of a U.S.-sponsored peace summit aimed at reviving the long-dormant Mideast peace process, passed with the support of lawmakers in his own ruling coalition.

Israel and the Palestinians have been struggling to agree on a declaration of principles for the summit, and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has made several visits to the region in a bid to tease out the differences. The U.S. hopes the meeting will kickstart substantive negotiations that will ultimately lead to a final peace deal, including the creation of a Palestinian state. Rice, however, is yet to issue invitations to the summit, although Nov. 27 is now being touted as the most likely date.

In the end, the invitations will be issued and Olmert will head for Annapolis, Maryland, where the summit will be held. But he will go with the knowledge that if he makes any substantive concessions there, his ruling coalition will be in danger of unraveling as the right-wing parties could bolt, leaving him to face an election he does not want and almost certainly cannot win.

The ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which is an integral part of the ruling coalition, has hinted heavily that if Olmert engages in substantive talks, they will head for the opposition benches. “We object to gestures so long as the Palestinians do not disavow terror,” said party chairman Eli Yishai. “Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) cannot say he’s the landlord of all Palestinians but not for terror. We need to stick to economic issues. Talk – yes. Enter into binding declarations – certainly not.”

Yishai met Rice during one of the secretary of state’s recent visits and tried to convince her to turn the Annapolis summit into an economic conference, not a meeting that will deal with the issues at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And the meetings this past week between Shas spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the centre-right Likud party which opposes the summit, were a clear message to Olmert not to attempt anything too adventurous at Annapolis.

But it’s not only Shas who has been sending the prime minister warning signals. Also doing his best to ensure the summit is no more than an extravagant photo-opportunity is Avigdor Lieberman, the minister of strategic threats and head of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party. He has insisted that Israel make any movement on the Palestinian front dependent on the implementation of the first stage of the road map peace plan.

The first stage of the road map, which has the backing of the Quartet – the U.S., Russia, the EU and the UN – requires that the Palestinians dismantle all militant groups, and Lieberman is banking on this never happening. His next move aimed at undermining the summit will be to get a decision passed at the final cabinet meeting before Annapolis, stating that there can be no substantive negotiations with the Palestinians until they recognise Israel as a Jewish state – something he knows they are loathe to do.

With the two sides unable to agree on a joint declaration of principles, and with Olmert increasingly shackled by his right-wing coalition partners, Israeli hardliners sound jubilant. They have been telling an “Annapolis” joke in recent days: “Why haven’t invitations been issued yet for the summit? Because while invitations to a wedding go out two months in advance, invitations to a funeral only go out the day before.”

Even defence minister Ehud Barak, who heads the centre-left, pro-peace Labour Party, has been sounding increasingly pessimistic about what can be achieved at Annapolis. Barak, who negotiated with Yasser Arafat at the failed Camp David summit seven years ago when he was prime minister – the last time the two sides sat around the negotiating table in earnest – has intimated that the Palestinians are still not ready to reach an agreement that would end the conflict between the two peoples.

“The Palestinians must recognise Israel as a Jewish state,” he said recently during a speech at a conference in Jerusalem. “But in the talks over the declaration that will be made at Annapolis, they weren’t able to sign on those four words, ‘As a Jewish state’.”

Olmert recently declared that he believed there was a chance to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians before U.S. President George Bush leaves office in early 2009. But considering the state of his coalition – and the distinct lack of enthusiasm being displayed by Barak – it seems the prime minister’s declaration will join the ever-growing scrapheap of Mideast peace deadlines that haven’t been met.