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CLIMATE CHANGE-JAPAN: Looking to Play a Key Role in Bali

Catherine Makino

TOKYO, Dec 2 2007 (IPS) - Japan expects to play a key role at the 11-day conference which begins Monday on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCC).

"Climate change and environmental issues are opportunities for Japan to promote positive &#39trans-border&#39 relations with its neighbors," Andrew Horvat, visiting professor of economics at Tokyo’s Keizai University, told IPS. "Acid rain doesn&#39t stop at national borders and neither does the effect of polar ice cap melting. Taking a leadership role on global warming is just what Japan needs, to show that it can contribute positively to the world order."

According to Horvat, military-security contributions have always been problematic for Japan, partly because of the absence of domestic consensus and partly because Japan has yet to settle issues pending from World War II with its neighbors.

For decades, Japan has had trouble winning the trust of its Asian neighbors -especially China and South Korea – because Japan inflicted great harm and suffering on the people of the region during World War 11.

Japan needs to influence all countries to join the new framework on global warming, or else it will fail, warned Mitsune Yamaguchi, lead author of the IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Report and a member of the Japanese government’s climate policy committee.

"Will it be possible to draw in the United States, and later the major emitters, such as China and India, if we continue the current rules and trade schemes?" Yamaguchi said.

He does not think so.

"If the new rules of post Kyoto are very stringent, the U.S. will never accept it," Yamaguchi says. "They withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol partly because it was so costly for them to comply with the target. Without U.S.’s participation, China and India will never follow.’’

Japan is the world’s fifth biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (GhGs) that are blamed for global warming, behind the U.S., China, India and Russia, and is under pressure to meet a greenhouse gas emissions limit.

"On the other hand, if we allow a more lenient target only for the U.S. and more stringent targets for EU and Japan, neither EU nor Japan can accept it. Particularly in Japan, there is a prevailing feeling that to have accepted the unfair cap under Kyoto was a mistake,’’ Yamaguchi said.

"It’s impossible to stabilise climate change without people changing their life styles and values. They need to watch less TV which consumes a lot of electricity and not drive cars,’’ he said. ‘’It is crucial to work together as a global community.’’

He hastened to add that this did not mean that Japan is not willing to contribute and tackle global warming. The common view is that GhGs should be reduced substantially, to less than half of the current level within a century, Yamaguchi said.

Japan’s sharpest increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) come from the service sector. That is because of the demand for heating electricity during the cold season. Private companies are reluctant to ask workers or customers to use less heat.

"Reducing our emissions by half by 2050 is too optimistic," Yamaguchi says. "By what technologies and calculations can we accomplish it? The current targets at climate conferences are not feasible. Countries are basing their targets on their desires, not realistic calculations. It’s up to Japan to make countries aware of it."

Japan believes it is doing its bit and, only last week, committed a whopping two-billion dollar aid package to help fight pollution and combat climate change. It included training programs grants and soft loans that will be distributed over a five year period.

"The countries of East Asia are now facing serious environmental problems while achieving the rapid economic growth that Japan once experienced," Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda said at a press conference last week announcing the package. "I want these countries to learn the lessons and knowledge from Japan in overcoming grave environmental disasters." The aid is meant to help developing Asian countries with its air and water pollution and help prepare for natural disasters.

"We will also use Japanese satellites to monitor forestry areas of East Asia and to measure GhGs." He did not specify which countries in the region would benefit.

Officials at the environment ministry said that policy makers "feel a strong need to increase Japan’s reaction to global warming". They expect to make, in March, a new policy announcement – in time to create excitement for the next big, international conference, the G8 summit in July, hosted by Japan in Hokkaido.

Although this year Japan decreased its emissions by 1.3 percent it is still below its target. The initial allocation of allowance in Kyoto is considered unfair to Japan and there is resentment that this would mean having to implement harsh and unpopular rules on domestic emissions to meet the Kyoto Protocol targets.

‘’Japan’s energy efficiency is the best in the world. If it is so hard for Japan to comply with the Kyoto target that means the initial allocation was quite unfair,’’ Yamaguchi pointed out.