SERBIA: Preparing to Vote Really Between EU and Russia

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Jan 23 2008 (IPS) - The two leading candidates in the presidential elections Sunday headed into a second round Feb. 3 as expected. Less expected was the high turnout.

The ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic got 39.59 percent of the vote and current President Boris Tadic 35.45 percent. But no one had expected 61 percent of the electorate, 4.1 million people, to vote. This was the highest turnout since 2000, when the vast majority of some 75 percent of Serbs voted out Slobodan Milosevic.

Elections since have attracted less and less voters, sometimes below 45 percent.

“People voted strategically, giving their votes to the two candidates they knew would top the list for the second round,” said analyst Vladimir Goati at a press conference traditionally organised after elections by the non-governmental organisation Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID). “They did not want their votes to disperse. Besides, the incredibly warm weather (14 degrees C in winter) added to this.”

Nine candidates were running for presidency, but it was obvious from the start that only two stood to go into the second round.

“Voters showed they were mature, understood democracy and the meaning of their votes, and surprised us all,” analyst Zoran Stojiljkovic told IPS. “There was also the fear that the ‘other side’ would profit more, and they turned out in large numbers.”

The elections are being held against the background of hot issues such as independence for the southern Serbian province Kosovo, and closer ties with the European Union (EU).

Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian populated province run by the United Nations since 1999, is set to proclaim independence from Serbia in coming months. Prime Minister Hashim Thaci has told IPS in an interview that the date for independence has been set and could be announced soon.

Independence for Kosovo is strongly backed by the United States, and by the EU which is due to send a large mission to replace the UN administration in Kosovo.

Both Tadic and Nikolic oppose independence for Kosovo. The difference is that Tadic stands firmly for European integration and vaguely mentions compromise with the EU on Kosovo; Nikolic stands for close ties with Russia and defiance against countries that support independence for Kosovo. His Serbian Radical Party (SRS) was a partner of Milosevic in the wartime governments of the 1990s.

SRS voters traditionally turn out in large numbers. Pro-democracy or pro-European supporters are more relaxed and only wake up at decisive moments. But this time both sides showed their strength.

Analyst Dragan Bujosevic told Belgrade B92 radio that the division of vote between the two candidates was fundamentally economic. “For losers in transition, it is Nikolic,” he said. “For others, it is Tadic.”

Nikolic stands for “more equality” among people, attacking the new rich. Tadic stands for free enterprise and better opportunities for private entrepreneurs.

Serbia is slowly recovering from the isolation of the 1990s after the downfall of Milosevic. Its economy has barely reached the level of development of 1989, prior to the disintegration of former Yugoslavia. But it is much stronger than in the 1990s.

Since 2000, many have been “losers in transition”. These are mostly SRS supporters and Serb refugees who are retired or jobless. However, the economic recovery has seen the resurgence of a middle class that opts for European values and fears Russian influence.

A decisive direction for the second round of voting could come from Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, some analysts say. “It is Kostunica who will decide, and his word will make a difference,” the first post-Milosevic foreign minister Goran Svilanovic told B92.

Kostunica did not support Tadic in the elections, but had a candidate of his own, Velimir Ilic from the small coalition partner Nova Srbija. Ilic obtained 7.6 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Party (DS) of Boris Tadic is also an important partner in Kostunica’s coalition government, but Tadic’s pro-European views were too distant from Kostunica, who blames the EU and the U.S. for “tearing Serbia apart” by insisting on Kosovo’s independence.

“Kostunica’s message to his sympathisers will make the difference in the plebiscite we’ll have on Serbia’s future on February 3,” Svilanovic added. “The president will be decided by a matter of some dozens of thousands of votes.”