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EAST TIMOR: Involve Indonesia In Stabilisation Efforts?

Analysis by Kafil Yamin

JAKARTA, Feb 11 2008 (IPS) - East Timor President José Ramos-Horta was reported in a stable condition after emergency surgery in Darwin hospital, for gunshot wounds sustained Monday, but his fledgling country appeared heading for a critical phase.

The Nobel peace laureate was seriously wounded in an assassination attempt by a group of rebel soldiers led by Alfredo Reinado at his home in Dili. Reinado was killed by Horta’s guards in a gunfire exchange.

Also attacked by the rebels on Monday was Prime Minister José Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao, who led the armed resistance against Indonesian occupation of East Timor, situated on the eastern half of the Indonesian island of Timor. But the Timorese independence hero was unharmed.

Much now is said to depend on measures the Dili government takes in the wake of the failed coup attempt. Ina Befride, a close associate of Reinado, was quoted saying that if the government persists with inviting foreign military intervention the situation was likely to worsen."

Australian special troops began arriving in Dili on Tuesday to reinforce international forces helping to implement a state of national emergency declared soon after the assassination bid.

East Timor, a former Portuguese colony with almost one million people, became independent in 2002, ending more than two decades of Indonesian occupation. But the new country quickly fractured along regional lines in 2006, triggering violence that prompted foreign, mainly Australian, armed intervention.

Many were said to be opposed to Gusmao’s decision to call in Australian troops and also to hunt down Reinado. But Dili has now reacted to the assassination attempt on Horta by asking Australia to send in more troops.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told the ‘Sydney Morning Herald’ on Monday that he would be sending more troops and police to East Timor. Rudd will also be travelling to Dili later this week, in response to a request from Gusmao. "My reason for doing that is to reinforce in person Australia&#39s resolve, Australia&#39s determination to stand with East Timor at this time of deep challenge to its democratic processes,’’ Rudd was quoted as saying.

About 800 Australian troops are already on peacekeeping duties in East Timor. Rudd said the National Security Committee of the cabinet has authorised a "substantial and immediate" reinforcement of Australian defence force personnel as well as an additional contingent of Australian federal police personnel.

The Australian-led international security stabilisation force in East Timor has already secured key buildings throughout Dili and increased its presence in the districts.

But the deployment of Australian troops poses a danger to the standing of Timorese politicians and the Horta government. It means they rely on foreign forces to protect themselves from their people who are fighting for better situation, said Filomeno de Haornay, secretary-general of the &#39Uni Timor Aswain&#39 that groups large sections of the Timorese community in Indonesia.

Reinado has a large number of supporters, said Haornay. ‘’His death will spark massive resistance. If the government were not smart enough in handling this, things will go worse,’’ he maintained.

Taufik Darusman, a politician with the New Indonesia Party (PIB), does not believe that resistance will intensify after Reinado’s death.

‘’There is no other resistance leader as charismatic as Reinado. The group is now losing momentum,’’ Darusman told IPS. ‘’The resistance will subside, but the dispatch of too many foreign troops will provoke resistance,’’ he added.

Reinado led a group of about 600 rebel soldiers who were disappointed with alleged regional discrimination in promotions. They had deserted the East Timor army and set up their own headquarters some 25 km south of Dili, from where they launched an anti-government campaign.

To quell violent demonstrations in Dili, on Mar. 28, 2006 the security forces shot dead five people, sparking more violence, rioting and looting for several days. This was followed by fighting among groups of the security forces that left more than 37 people dead between April and May 2006.

It was then that the Dili government brought in international peacekeepers to restore calm and hunt down Reinado. On Mar. 5, 2007, the Australian troops raided Reinado’s hideout on a hilltop base, but Reinado and an unknown number of his armed men escaped despite the Australians being heavily armed and blockading the base for six days.

Reinado&#39s escape emboldened his supporters who chanted "long live Reinado" as they fought pitched battles with United Nations peacekeepers in Dili. Rioters smashed cars and government buildings in Dili and Gleno, a small town in East Timor&#39s coffee-growing western mountains where Reinado grew up.

Yanto Soegiarto, a senior journalist and editor of the ‘Globe’, an English-language business magazine, offered a simple but effective solution to IPS: ‘’Give the Indonesian military a chance to restore security and stability in Timor and the situation will improve.’’ ‘’Indonesia and East Timor are now in a brotherly relationship. The Timorese will see Indonesian troops more as their new brother compared to the Western-style, heavily-armed white soldiers who always try to look superior,’’ Soegiarto maintained.

The international community once saw Indonesian presence as the core of East Timor’s problems. Now they can see for themselves that the situation is much worse under the international security forces, Soegiarto said.