BULGARIA: Far Right Goes Out of Fashion

By Claudia Ciobanu Reprint | | Print |

Claudia Ciobanu

SOFIA, Mar 6 2008 (IPS) - The national rally of extreme-right party Ataka, taking place Mar. 3 in Sofia, illustrated the dwindling support for this group among Bulgarians.

On Mar. 3, Bulgarians celebrate their liberation from the Ottoman Empire at the end of the Russo-Turkish War in 1877-1878, after five centuries of foreign rule.

Extreme-right party Ataka, infamous for its anti-Turkish and anti-Roma rhetoric, organises its annual national rallies on this date. This year, the slogan was ‘No to the New Turkish Yoke’.

“Almost 10,000 activists and sympathisers” gathered in front of Aleksander Nevsky Cathedral in Sofia, representatives of Ataka proudly announced. But local observers placed the figure lower.

Most of the “activists and sympathisers” were pensioners, many of them representatives of local branches of the party, brought by 30 buses from all over Bulgaria. A few “neo-Nazi” youngsters were also present, mostly enjoying the sun on a day when classes were suspended on account of the national holiday.

According to a poll conducted by Alpha Research in December 2007, support for Ataka now stands at 5.7 percent. The party, established in April 2005, reached its peak of popularity during the 2006 presidential elections, when the leader of the party, TV host Volen Siderov, won 21.5 percent of the vote, and faced current president Georgi Parvanov in a run-off.

The party mostly plays on Bulgarians’ fears that they will be “marginalised in their own country.”

Turks represent about 9.5 percent of the 7.8 million population of Bulgaria, mostly located in the south-east and north-east of the country. Census authorities noted that this estimation may be imprecise, as oftentimes Roma, Tatars and Pomaks (Bulgarian Muslims) identify themselves as Turks. The Roma minority, another target of Ataka, accounts for 7 percent of the population (or 5 percent, if those declaring themselves Turks or Bulgarians are discounted).

The anti-Turkish message of the extreme-right reached even educated audiences in big cities. “If you look at the scale on which the Turks are sending money into these (Eastern) regions, and how mosques grow like mushrooms after rain, it is not far-fetched to think that they would like to increase their territory…by half of today’s Bulgaria,” says Dani Dimitrova, a business and economics graduate from Sofia.

Anti-Turkish sentiment has been further fuelled by corruption allegations against members of the current government alliance, which includes the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, representatives of the Turkish minority.

Paradoxically, while anti-Turkish and anti-corruption messages such as the ones promoted by Ataka became increasingly attractive, support for the party dropped.

“The appeal of Ataka is exhausted,” says political scientist Ivan Krastev, chair of board of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia. “Some of its messages have already entered the mainstream, and this has been done through different parties.”

Much of the strength of populists derives from the novelty of their message. And the freshest populist voice on the Bulgarian political scene is Boyko Borisov, the mayor of Sofia, who proposes a much more cosmopolitan message than Ataka.

Borisov depicts himself as a strong man, who talks straight and gets things done. A former bodyguard of communist dictator Todor Zhivkov, he went on to become a secretary general in the Ministry of Interior in the 2001-2005 centrist government of ex-king Simeon de Saxa-Coburg. In 2005, he became the mayor of Sofia.

In December 2006, Borisov founded a party, Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), which went on to win the largest number of seats (five out of 18) in the European Parliament (EP) May 2007 elections. GERB currently enjoys the support of 27.6 percent of potential voters, more than any other party (Alpha Research).

Borisov is trying to define his party as belonging to the centre-right, and GERB even joined the European People’s Party, the group in the EP representing centre-right, conservative, and Christian Democrat forces.

But his political positions remain ambiguous. Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev accused Borisov of “playing left to the left parties and right to the right parties.” Borisov even expressed admiration for Ataka, a position he later took back.

Nominally, GERB stands for combating crime and corruption and constructing a European future for Bulgaria. But critics argue that the party has done little to explain how it could reach such goals.

The main strength of Borisov is that he manages to place himself above politics. Speaking to Bulgarian media about irregularities in the Sofia municipality, the mayor stated: “The current disturbances show that the political parties have no right to even comment on my actions. Only the people have this right, but not the parties, because it’s them to be blamed for this situation. The parties should remain silent and let me do my job.”

“GERB’s populism is opportunistic. It’s not anti-minority, but anti-elite, plus it is strongly pro-European”, Ivan Krastev told IPS. “Borisov’s strategy is to push for a coalition between Brussels and the majority of Bulgarian citizens who are mistrustful of the elites and institutions.”

General elections will take place in 2009. “It is too early to say whether Borisov will be the next prime minister,” said Krastev, “but he can mobilise the protest vote, and many people see GERB as the party of change.”