EUROPE: Poland Shows its Tusk

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Mar 26 2008 (IPS) - What looked like a foregone conclusion – Warsaw nodding to Washington’s request to build a U.S. missile base in Poland – is on thin ice after Poland’s new government decided to switch to what it calls a realistic approach to negotiations.

The U.S. administration wants to enlarge its missile defence system to Central-Eastern Europe by building a radar in the Czech Republic and a missile base in Poland that will allegedly protect Europe from missile attacks by ‘rogue’ states in the Middle East.

Over the months following the election of liberal Donald Tusk from the Civic Platform (PO) as Prime Minister last year, foreign policy has undergone a revamp.

Under the tenure of former conservative prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Poland’s policy was hostile to Russia, complicated with Brussels and, as most Polish commentators claim today, naive towards the U.S.

Experts and politicians alike complain that Poland has sided all too often with its once favourite ally, only to find that Washington took Warsaw’s passionate partnership for granted.

Tusk has re-started dialogue with the base’s main opponent, Russia, joined the mainstream of European Union (EU) politics, and toughened Warsaw’s tone towards the U.S.

Unlike his predecessor Kaczynski, who considered the presence of the U.S. base beneficial to Poland, Tusk views it as a security liability.

While Washington has promised enhanced cooperation, Warsaw demands more than promises this time. Many recall how Poland’s willingness to deploy generous contingents to Iraq and Afghanistan was followed by unfulfilled promises to partake in the benefits of reconstruction, and the oil business.

“The analysis of gains and losses resulting from our participation first of all in Iraq has brought the conclusion that this cannot be a one-way street,” Jerzy Nowak, senior research fellow at the Warsaw-based Centre for International Relations told IPS.

“We understand American interests; however there is a certain difference between the U.S. and Poland’s security, and the base will increase dangers to our security,” he said. “We cannot simply accept a situation in which Poland only follows the American wish, we have to be treated as partners with our own interests and needs.”

In contrast with the goodwill of Czechs, who have practically agreed to the base and settled for Washington’s promises of enhanced technological cooperation, Warsaw wants tangible returns before or simultaneously with the approval of the base.

The main conditions are increased air defence for the country and modernisation of Polish armed forces.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rica has told Poland its security is already fully guaranteed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and while Washington has promised to meet some of the Polish demands, the White House is concerned that further militarisation of Poland could anger Russia even more.

Poland wants protection against short-range missiles as it claims the base will make it a potential military target for Russia. Several Russian generals have made statements in this direction.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said Moscow wants its concerns to be heard, and has welcomed Poland’s openness for dialogue.

Warsaw has conceded that Russian concerns are legitimate, and has agreed to enter into a dialogue with Moscow, angering the conservative opposition that claims the issue concerns only Poland and the U.S.

Polish officials also claim they attach much importance to defence systems eventually becoming an element of the NATO and EU security systems.

The U.S. has been taken by surprise by Warsaw’s turnaround, whose demands could amount to an extra 20 billion dollars for the White House budget, and make Poland the biggest beneficiary of U.S. military assistance worldwide.

Moreover, the Poles know the upcoming U.S. presidential elections put pressure on the other side of the Atlantic, leaving Warsaw in a strong bargaining position. To show it means business, Poland has already announced it is ending its mission in Iraq.

The U.S. Democratic presidential candidates are not as enthusiastic as Republicans about the shield, but Warsaw hopes the Republicans might accept most conditions, and leave the bill for the next administration.

Some even suspect Tusk could be sabotaging the idea of the base, in view of its unpopularity among Poles and their support for taking a tougher stance towards the U.S.

Still, according to polls, many Poles are resentful that, while they are free to travel to almost any European country, the U.S. still demands visas for its citizens.

But if Washington begins to look for an alternative location, Russia would claim victory, something many in Poland and the U.S. want to avoid at all cost.