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PAKISTAN: Musharraf’s Exit Imminent?

Analysis by Amir Mir

ISLAMABAD, May 29 2008 (IPS) - While Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has dismissed widespread speculation in the media of his imminent resignation, the odds are against the former military ruler continuing in office for long.

At a Thursday dinner meeting attended by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani and Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the man who succeeded him as army chief in November, Musharraf accused ‘’rumour mongers’’ of trying to ‘’create differences’’ between him and the army and ‘’create unrest in the country,’’ according to a report by the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan.

Musharraf’s long-time spokesman Rashid Qureshi has been busy scotching reports in the local media that his leader was about to resign and that the chief of the praetorian guard of elite commandos that protects him had been withdrawn.

“It is absolute nonsense. There is no such thing. Nothing like this (resignation) is under any sort of consideration,” Qureshi told Dawn News TV.

Much of the speculation was sparked by reports in ‘The News’, an influential English-language daily, that Kayani had, during a late Wednesday meeting with Musharraf, asked the president to resign.

Kayani had apparently ordered the removal of the commander of the ‘Triple-One Brigade’ (which has been instrumental in successive military takeovers) and also moved back commandos of the elite Special Services Group responsible for the security of the embattled president.

An official statement released by the army confirmed the replacement of Aasim Bajwa as commander of the 111 Brigade, but described the reassignment as routine. The statement went on to say that ‘’a section of the press’’ was trying to ‘’sensationalise routine functional matters’’.

Musharraf’s eight -year grip on power, that began in October 1999 with his leading a military coup against an elected government led by then prime minister Nawaz Sharif, started to slip after the Feb. 18 general elections in which his political supporters were defeated by an opposition coalition formed mainly of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

Initially, the senior partner in the coalition, the PPP, showed reluctance in securing the removal of Musharraf. Differences also surfaced over the reinstatement of top members of the higher judiciary dismissed by Musharraf when he declared emergency rule in November. Earlier this month, nine ministers from Sharif’s party quit the cabinet throwing a shadow over the future of the coalition.

But on May 24 PPP leader Asif Zardari told a crowded press conference that the president should quit. “We have never accepted Musharraf as the constitutional president of the country and we will decide his fate with the backing of the parliament. We want him to walk away rather than impeach him away. Therefore, he should decide to step down voluntarily rather than face impeachment,’’ Zardari said.

Earlier, on May 20, in an interview given to the Press Trust of India news agency, Zardari had described Musharraf as a ‘relic of the past’ who was standing between the people of Pakistan and democracy.

Sources in the PPP claim that Zardari’s warnings were a response to Musharraf’s refusal to surrender his powers to dissolve the parliament and appoint the chiefs of the armed forces. They said Zardari had conveyed to Musharraf that he was ready to indemnify his Nov. 3, 2007 act invoking emergency and sacking 60 members of the higher judiciary in return for quitting the office of the president voluntarily.

Many believe that getting Musharraf to resign is difficult because he continues to enjoy the backing of United States, accorded ever since he became instrumental in enrolling Pakistan as a key ally in the ‘war-on-terror’ in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The million-dollar question in Pakistan now is whether Musharraf will invoke the powers retained by him as President to dismiss an elected government in times of ‘grave crisis,’ a possibility not ruled out by spokesman Qureshi.

Speaking with IPS, Qureshi said Zardari’s demand for the president to resign was both impolite and uncalled for. “There is a possibility of President Musharraf holding a meeting with Prime Minister Gillani shortly to express his concern over the deteriorating law and order situation in the country and the acute economic crisis that has hit Pakistan in the first two months of PPP government,” he added.

Qureshi cited as example plans by several foreign countries to set up universities in Pakistan that have been shelved because of political uncertainty. ‘’President Musharraf wants to apprise the prime minister of such negative developments.’’

Much now depends on how much support Musharraf can get from the army since he cannot exercise his power to dismiss an elected government without the backing of the military. So far, the army’s top brass has shown disinclination in getting involved.

Former army chief Aslam Beg told IPS: “Keeping in view the actions and directives of the incumbent army chief since his assuming command of the institution, I don’t see him supporting Musharraf to remove the government and dissolve the parliament. Kayani is a professional soldier who has depoliticised the army besides ensuring its neutrality during the Feb. 18 general elections, which otherwise could have been rigged by the Musharraf administration.’’

Aitzaz Ahsan, president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, told IPS that in the aftermath of the elections, Musharraf’s position had become precarious. ‘’In my personal opinion,’’ he said, stepping down from the presidency and leaving the political scene quietly is the only respectable option left for Musharraf. I don’t think he is in a position to confront the new parliament, which is hostile and has got the two-thirds majority to show him the door.’’