UKRAINE: It Could Just Be Tilting Right

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

KIEV, Nov 26 2004 (IPS) - An orange sea of banners and scarves of ‘Our Ukraine’ opposition party challenges the white of snow-covered Kiev. It reflects a growing sense that the country is on the verge of making history, and no one seeking that change wants to be left out.

An orange sea of banners and scarves of ‘Our Ukraine’ opposition party challenges the white of snow-covered Kiev. It reflects a growing sense that the country is on the verge of making history, and no one seeking that change wants to be left out.

Behind closed doors in the meantime, Russia and the West each struggle to pull the country into its sphere of influence.

After a succession of upheavals no one dares foretell the outcome of what is unanimously recognised as the most important election in post-communist Ukraine. The population is following events continuously through the media or in the streets, overwhelmed by hope or apprehension depending which side you are on. Every new announcement keeps the momentum alive.

Six days after the controversial presidential elections Sunday, there are no signs of retreat in Kiev’s main square. Tens of thousands are gathered here to support the opposition demand for cancellation of the election results that made Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich winner in the presidential elections.

Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko who was prime minister for 15 months in 2000-2001 is gaining strength by weakening his foes. He has been seducing officials and journalists, who are increasingly switching sides and admitting they were pressured by the government.

Demonstrators supporting him continue to block access to government buildings. Government supporters can also be seen, but they are largely outnumbered.

Yushchenko’s last achievement was the Supreme Court decision Thursday to examine an appeal against the election results by Monday. The court cannot invalidate results, but it can demand regional recounts. The court decision to examine results has added legitimacy to Yushchenko’s claims that he has been "robbed" of the presidency.

The Western community, relying on critical reports from most observers, has condemned the electoral process. Conversely, Russia and other former Soviet states congratulated Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich for his victory in the presidential election, and asked the west not to interfere in Ukrainian politics.

This came as no surprise because Putin had supporterd Yanukovich. Russia has high stakes in Ukraine, one of its closest allies, a privileged business partner, and a buffer state between the expanding North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and Russia. The Russian government made a significant announcement that it was sending special troops to assist the Ukrainian army in defence tasks.

The Central Election Commission had confirmed its preliminary verdict earlier by declaring Viktor Yanukovich the winner in the disputed presidential election with 49.46 percent of the vote against 46.61 percent for Yuschchenko. This had come as a surprise to many after exit polls predicted, with varying margins of difference, a victory for ‘Our Ukraine’.

The opposition registered several complaints alleging irregularities and intimidation. Western observers corroborated the validity of the accusations, particularly in the east of the country.

The market-oriented Yushchenko appeals mostly to Ukrainian speakers in the west, small businessmen, and idealist youngsters fascinated with a western lifestyle. Yanukovich received his support mainly from pensioners and Russian-speaking voters in the industrial east.

The contenders both promised economic prosperity, but in different ways. Yanukovich wants to integrate Ukraine into a common market with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and favours greater state control. Yushchenko wants Ukraine closer to Europe, he wants stronger transatlantic ties, and a deregulated market economy.

Each candidate tried to win over the rival’s electorate. Yushchenko vowed to maintain ties with Russia, while Yanukovich promised to transform Ukraine into a "European country." Just days before the elections he increased pensions and state workers’ salaries in what the opposition called a populist move.

Yanukovich had the advantage of endorsement of his candidacy by outgoing president Leonid Kuchma. He could therefore count on the state apparatus to support his campaign. Most observers said local media had been "overtly biased" in his favour.

Yanukovich was supported by business tycoons keen on maintaining their dominant position, but Yushchenko was backed by large business circles in less industrial areas.

Yanukovich would be likely to continue the hard line of Kuchma’s two terms. That brought an authoritarian shift in a country that had been developing into a model of democratisation in the post-soviet world, despite economic deprivation in the early 1990s..

Ukraine has the fastest growing economy in Europe, but hardships are still a part of everyday life. In a country of 48 million that is a potential agricultural and industrial powerhouse, an overwhelming majority of people live on a monthly salary below 60 dollars. Corruption is widespread, and wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few magnates.

But as events continue to unfold, it seems likely that the Ukraine will tilt towards the west. That at least was the prevailing view among demonstrators who believe they are witnessing the latest European revolution.