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MALAYSIA: Anwar Needs Huge Win in Crucial By-Election

Analysis by Anil Netto

PERMATANG PAUH, Penang , Aug 25 2008 (IPS) - All eyes in Malaysia and beyond are trained on this constituency of 58,000 voters in mainland Penang, the scene of a pivotal by-election on Tuesday that could determine if an opposition alliance can press ahead with its plan to take over the federal government in the coming weeks.

The de facto head of the People's Alliance, Anwar Ibrahim, is squaring off with a little-known candidate, Ariff Shah Omar Shah, from the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) that is led by the monolithic United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. A third candidate from a little-known party is expected to be trounced.

Tuesday’s by-election is being seen as a gauge not only of popular support for Anwar's ambitions to take over as prime minister. A huge win for Anwar will provide evidence of the extent to which the public backs the Alliance's bid to lure defections of parliamentarians from the BN in its bid to wrest power at the federal level. It could also convince ruling coalition parliamentarians that Anwar's leadership would enjoy greater popular support among the public.

The BN currently enjoys a 140-81 majority over the Alliance in the terms of number of parliamentarians. It may appear a comfortable majority, but Alliance supporters are hoping that a landslide victory for Anwar could result in the eventual collapse of the BN if enough parliamentarians feel that the Anwar's coalition presents a more popular and viable alternative.

That's not all. Anwar's bid to press on with his march from Permatang Pauh to Putrajaya, the administrative capital, has captured the imagination of many Malaysians who have tired of the ruling coalition's race-based politics, the slow pace of reforms of key government institutions and the lacklustre efforts at curbing corruption.

In many ways, the campaign has actually been a de facto battle between Anwar, widely seen as prime minister-in-waiting, and Deputy Premier Najib Razak, the anointed successor to Badawi. Najib has spear-headed the BN campaign while Abdullah has kept a low profile.

Anwar has had to contend with what by many accounts has been a racially charged campaign by the BN including personal attacks on his character especially the sodomy allegation against him. Analysts say the BN's persistent focus on the sodomy allegation is aimed at running Anwar down in the eyes of Muslim voters, who comprise close to 70 percent of the electorate.

Anwar is accused of having sodomised his former aide, Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan. Throughout the campaign, the BN had gone to town playing videos of Saiful taking an Islamic oath that he had been sodomised.

But on Sunday night, the Alliance pulled out an ace, when they produced Ramlang Porigi, an imam from the Federal Territory Mosque, who had witnessed Saiful's oath. Ramlang told crowds at Anwar's political rallies that he was "ordered" by higher-ups to act as a witness to Saiful's oath. He also claimed that the oath was not properly carried out in accordance with Islamic procedures.

The imam's disclosure could prove the turning point in the campaign. Until then, the big question was what kind of impact Saiful's oath-taking would have on rural Muslim voters in particular. But now, some observers say the focus on the sodomy allegations may backfire spectacularly.

Many BN supporters and election workers are said to be discouraged and demoralised as a number of road-side BN campaign service centres appear to be deserted, according to eye-witnesses.

"Before I voted for BN candidates; now I am voting for Anwar. My family and I are sick with the way the BN has used Saiful to fish for votes," said a 30-something voter in the area.

It is not just Anwar and his party members who are hoping for change. Large numbers of Malaysians are watching from the sidelines, willing him on.

At ceramah or public rallies, crowds chant "Reformasi!" and "Makkal Sakthi" (Tamil for People Power). For some, it is their first experience at a political rally. "I never knew it could be so interesting," said Yanam (only one name given), a politically aware woman from mainland Penang who is not a voter in the area.

Much of the discussion among the crowds has centred on whether Anwar can improve on his wife Azizah’s winning majority. Azizah had won the seat by a 13,388 majority in the Mar. 8 general election.

One Permatang Pauh voter, Rezza, says he heard from a reliable source that support for Anwar was currently running at 70:30. "Even if it’s a dirty election, he could still win by a 10,000-vote majority," he maintained.

But a winning majority of less than 13,388 could prompt the BN to claim a moral victory and allege that Anwar is losing support.

The man himself has called for caution, warning that more dirty tricks could surface. ''Don’t be surprised at what else they could bring up," he told voters at a rally. "Go out early and vote.''

He has highlighted cases of certain people going around photocopying the identity cards of voters, prompting fears that phantom voters could turn up. His People's Justice Party is also claiming that more than 900 names are missing from the electoral rolls.

Earlier, the Election Commission had fixed polling day on Tuesday, a working day, prompting fears that voters might not be able to head to polling stations. But Anwar's ally, Lim Guan Eng, now the chief minister of Penang, has declared Tuesday a state holiday, levelling the field a little.

One political analyst warned that UMNO’s racial and communal tactics could have fed into Malay insecurities of being ruled by a state government helmed by Lim's Chinese-based but multi-ethnic Democratic Action Party, which is part of the Alliance.

Penang is the only state in the peninsula where the Malays are in the minority; so the insecurity among segments of the Malay community here is unique in the peninsula. It is this sort of insecurity that critics claim UMNO has fed through its racially charged – and even misleading – posters, banners and leaflets.

In the Pakatan’s favour, however, is the fact that low-income workers of all ethnic groups – especially the Malays who form a large proportion of the working class – are finding it difficult to make ends meet following a 41 percent petrol price hike in June. There are significant pockets of Malay and Indian poverty in Permatang Pauh and surrounding areas.

The government's six percent reduction in petrol price last week was widely seen as too little too late. "Are you that cheap to be bought by 15 sen (about 5 US cents)?" is the recurrent question that was raised by Alliance speakers.

Meanwhile, the minority parties of the BN such as the Malaysian Chinese Association, the Malaysian Indian Congress and Gerakan are in disarray after a drubbing in the Mar. 5 general election – and this is not likely to help the BN cause.

In contrast, the level of interaction and campaigning among political activists from the Alliance parties has been encouraging. "The response was encouraging but whether that will be translated to votes remains to be seen," said Chew, a political activist who participated in the campaigns.

For Anwar, the main issues are national unity and the economy. He has vowed to lift the economy from the doldrums within three months of taking over power at the federal level if given the chance.

On the ground, the inter-mingling of the various ethnic groups in the Alliance's campaign and among the ceramah crowds has provided hope to many that a new Malaysia where everyone has a stake under the sun is possible. They even shout in protest in unison at the ever-circling police helicopters above.

"We have a dream," Anwar told a crowd of 3,000, in the midst of low-income flats on the weekend. "But it’s not an empty, wishful dream. We want to actualise it and work towards it."

'The stakes are high. 'This is an absolutely critical by-election for Malaysia," civil society activist Ahmad Chik told IPS. ''If Anwar loses, it could set back the cause for good governance and accountability by half a generation.''