POLITICS-EGYPT: Debate on Whether Saddam will Seek Asylum Abroad

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Jan 26 2003 (IPS) - Egyptian government officials deny reports of a plan to offer Iraqi President Saddam Hussein asylum in Egypt, but analysts say even if an offer were made, the Iraqi leader would probably decline.

"This question is not being raised, we don’t know anything about it, and we have nothing to do with it," Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said earlier this month. He continues to deny reports that Arab leaders are formulating a plan to force Saddam into exile or offer him a safe haven as a last ditch effort to avert a war.

U.S. officials have endorsed the idea, but say it is unlikely that Saddam would ever relinquish power.

"The best solution for the Iraq crisis would be for President Saddam Hussein to take a long vacation from political power," U.S. Ambassador to Egypt David Welch said. "I don’t know whether this is possible or likely, but yes, as far as the United States is concerned, a change of regime in Baghdad would be very welcome."

Political analysts suggest that Saddam, whether he steps down on his own accord or is forced out of power, could seek refuge in Libya, Cuba, North Korea or Egypt. Unconfirmed reports say his aides have already visited these countries to scout locations.

While Egypt may not formally offer Saddam asylum, its government seems unlikely to turn him away, asserts Sherif el-Musa, director of Middle East Studies at the American University in Cairo.

"Egypt has been quite hospitable in the past," he says. "It has a long history of hosting political exiles."

Italy’s King Victor Emmanuel III came to Cairo after his 1946 abdication, King Idris of Libya found refuge in Egypt after the 1969 coup that brought Muammar Qaddafi to power and the deposed Shah of Iran spent his final years in Cairo.

In his youth, Saddam Hussein also found safe haven in Egypt. He fled to Cairo in 1959 following his part in a botched assassination attempt against Iraqi President Abdel Karim Qassem. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser welcomed the young radical, providing shelter and allowing him to enrol in Cairo University.

"At that time you had the Hashemites in Iraq and a split in East-West alliances," explains El-Musa. "Saddam was an opponent of their (pro-Soviet) regime. Egypt’s decision to protect him was essentially part of the Cold War."

Saddam returned to Iraq after Qassem was deposed in a 1963 coup to eventually lead the Ba’ath Party. Egypt has offered him asylum whenever the need arose. On the eve of the 1991 Gulf War, President Hosni Mubarak phoned Saddam to offer him safe haven as a way of averting the impending war. Saddam reportedly hung up on him.

"I imagine Egypt would welcome him again," says El-Musa. "The question is whether Saddam would come."

The situation has however changed since the late 1950’s, and the Iraqi leader would no longer be a political asset. He would also have to reckon with a long list of enemies without the benefit of his personal entourage, army and intelligence network.

"I don’t think he would trust that he would be left alone," says El-Musa. "There are a lot of legal questions about his crimes against humanity that the U.S., non-governmental organisations focussing on human rights and other groups would press."

His biggest threat, however, may be the Egyptian people themselves. While Egypt has supported Iraq diplomatically, many Egyptians are bitter over Saddam’s alleged efforts to undermine their country’s prestige.

"It was Saddam Hussein who led the campaign to isolate Egypt from the Arab world following its peace treaty with Israel and who then conspired to keep it isolated in pursuit of his dream to succeed Egypt and become the leader of the Arab world," writes Ibrahim Nafie, editor-in-chief of government-run Al-Ahram newspaper.

Egyptians also hold Saddam responsible for the murder of Egyptian workers at the end of the Iran-Iraq War in the late 1980’s.

"Vivid in our memories, too, are the corpses returned to Egypt from Iraq in body bags," he says. "Autopsies revealed the Egyptian workers had been killed by bullets to the head or chest."

While no official figure exists, some 1,000 Egyptian workers are believed to have been killed when Iraqi soldiers returning home at the end of the war discovered they had taken their jobs and wives.

"Their deaths are part of the Egyptian collective memory," says political science professor Mohammed Kamal, "If you want to (verbally) attack Iraq you bring it up."

Civil servant Magdy Tawfik thinks Saddam would prefer to retire in North Korea.

"Egypt is an ally of the U.S. and all Egyptians hate Saddam Hussein, so why would he want to come here?" he asks. "In North Korea they consider him a hero."