A VICTORIOUS DAY FOR PEOPLE POWER – WHAT NEXT?

By Johan Galtung and - - Reprint | | Print |

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SANTA CRUZ, CALIFORNIA, Feb 14 2011 (IPS) - After 18 days of massive nonviolent demonstrations, Egypt’s president Mubarak finally stepped down. This historic achievement by a million heroes was inspired by Tunisia. It had no leaders, of course, because leaders are easy targets. Everybody united around one idea, the ouster of Mubarak–like of Ben Ali in Tunisia.

This was only the first act of many to follow in this drama. Egypt is now run by the High Council of the Armed Forces.

What has happened surprises nobody familiar with the enormous strength of nonviolence. A massive nonviolent citizens movement can bring down a head of state if they are numerous and persistent enough.

What happens next may show the weakness of this type of nonviolence–as opposed to the Gandhian original. Gandhi did not demand the ouster of a viceroy, but the end of colonialism; swaraj, self-rule, and he got that. But he also argued sarvodaya, uplifting the poor and casteless, and was betrayed. So were the huge masses in Western Europe demonstrating against nuclear arms; they are still there. So were the heroic demonstrators in Leipzig in October 1989; they wanted a democratic East Germany, not absorption into capitalist West Germany. The nonviolent “rose” revolution in Georgia and “orange” revolution in the Ukraine were so clearly designed in the USA that they were caricatures of popular revolts.

But even when popular uprisings are genuine, states do not like to share power with people. And states have a number of tricks after some initial sharing, committees, even agreements.

Parliamentary democracies can use legislative power to put the issue to a vote in a parliament based on national multi-party fair and free elections –easily manipulated by the media. Only rarely will a majority in parliament yield to a majority in the streets. Direct democracies may call a referendum, but mobilize the non-revolting masses.

If the demands from streets do not win parliamentary, nor democratic, legitimacy, are they dead? Not if the nonviolent movement becomes better at conveying its message to the unconverted, reaching beyond streets and squares.

States can also use judiciary power, placing the issues before the Supreme Court, having the demands declared unconstitutional.

Or they can use executive power, the whole state machinery to sabotage demands by simply not carrying them out. And the secret police or the military can be used to suppress the will of the people. In Egypt the military are now holding all power. Is this a constitutional coup? It depends. Military rule may also be with the people and for the people, even if not by the people. A dictatorship should also be judged by what it dictates –and a democracy by what the people decide, like voting for US parties with military interventions and wars on their hands. Judge the tree by its fruits. Give them a chance, the youth will watch.

But still deeper down two states want a final say. Israel, caring only for itself, not for the Egyptian people, does anything to keep the Camp David accord, a betrayal of the Palestinian people, intact. The USA may do anything against “Islamism”. The military council has acquiesced, they will “honor treaties”.

To confront this five-headed hydra is not easy. Goals beyond the ouster of a symbol of evil must be formulated in non- controversial universal language. The two International Covenants of 16 December 1966 offer such language, with the following examples:

Civil-political rights 1. Rule of law 2. Freedom of movement, internally and externally 3. Right to own property 4. Freedom of thought 5. Freedom of expression 6. Freedom of assembly 7. Right to take part in government

Economic-social-cultural rights 1. Right to work 2. Sufficient wages for a decent living 3. Right to rest, leisure 4. Guaranteed food, clothing, housing 5. Guaranteed health care 6. Guaranteed education at all levels 7. Right to take part in culture

The Egyptian protesters were demonstrating for both, even if the rhetoric was more for freedom than for basic needs. The movement should be steadfast on both, well knowing that immediate steps can ensure the civil-political rights (stop torture, lift censorship, free and fair elections) whereas slower processes are needed for economic and social rights (create employment). But insisting on all human rights would be an unbeatable platform, enjoying world-wide at least verbal consensus and remove any suspicion that the revolt is by and for the educated middle classes only. Both-And.

What remains are the USA and Israel applying threats and bribery. The next goal is sovereignty, like the end of colonialism. Are free elections in a puppet country real liberation? For a country aspiring to reemerge as an Arab leader?

Sooner or later the Camp David accords and the joint blockade of Gaza –outcomes of autocracy and bribery– will be up for renegotiation. Sooner or later the youth wave will hit more dominos; the PLO, Syria, Iran, and the Big One –the Saudi Royal House. Maybe even that other Big One–Israel–liberating it from narcissism, paranoia, and rule by generals, to positive judaism. Maybe one day even the Biggest One –the USA–will close its foreign military bases and end interventions, engage in mutually beneficial trade, use dialogue instead of arm-twisting and bribery, and learn from other cultures, not only export its own culture. Becoming a normal country, blossoming. (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

(*) Johan Galtung, Rector of the TRANSCEND Peace University, is author of “The Fall of the US Empire – And Then What?” (www.transcend.org/tup).