POLITICS-EGYPT: New Optimism Over Iraq

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Nov 10 2002 (IPS) - Egypt is optimistic that Iraq will accept the new United Nations Security Council resolution, which Arab officials see as the final opportunity to avert a war.

"I think we can expect a positive position by the Iraqis," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher told reporters following a meeting Saturday with his Iraqi counterpart.

Arab foreign ministers of the 22-member Arab League are meeting in Cairo Sunday to discuss the new UN Security Council resolution on Iraq, which was approved Friday by all 15 members of the Security Council, including its only Arab member, Syria.

The resolution gives Iraqi President Saddam Hussein until Friday to accept the return of UN weapons inspectors and another 23 days to make an "accurate, full and complete" declaration of any weapons of mass destruction programmes. Failure to comply with the resolution will result in "serious consequences," which analysts say means war.

Arab officials have spoken to Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri in a desperate attempt to persuade Baghdad to accept the terms of the resolution. Egypt, a key U.S. ally in the region, says it is seeking a peaceful solution to the Iraqi crisis and wants to avoid war at all costs.

"President Hosni Mubarak has urged the Iraqi Government since the start of the crisis to respect the UN resolutions," Maher said earlier.

Egyptian officials fear a U.S.-led war on Iraq could lead to mass unrest and a wider confrontation, especially if Israel becomes involved. They see positive signs in Baghdad, and believe that President Saddam Hussein is willing to accept the return of UN weapons inspectors without conditions.

The Iraqi government has given no indication yet whether it is willing to accept the terms of the new resolution. It accused the U.S. of bullying Security Council members into approving the resolution, but boasted that the international community "rejected the U.S. cravings for war."

Two months of arduous negotiations ended with the U.S. getting more or less the result it wanted, but not without compromise. The resolution in effect authorises use of military force if Iraq obstructs weapons inspectors, but makes no specific mention of overthrowing the Iraqi regime, which analysts say was the real objective of Washington’s sabre-rattling. "The U.S. was looking for a carte blanche," says Enid Hill, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo.

Government-owned Al-Ahram Weekly described the UN resolution as a "win-win situation" that puts the onus on Iraq while saving face for all sides.

"For the U.S. it will place Baghdad on notice, strengthen the hand of inspectors and, in Washington’s interpretation, give it a free hand to act unilaterally should efforts to disarm Iraq flounder," the weekly commented . "For France, Russia and China the resolution will be seen as successfully confining the U.S. within the multilateral fold, leaving the matter of war and peace in the hands of the Security Council and sparing Iraq a devastating blow that would also undermine their own strategic and economic interests."

The newspaper said the resolution was also a victory for Arab countries seeking to counter U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. "For some, the resolution will be seen as the crowning success of the subtle game of confronting misguided U.S. policies," it said.

Other analysts say that Iraq’s belligerent tone could give the U.S. a pretext to launch a military strike. "Iraq has relapsed into making sabre-rattling statements," said Samir Ragab, chief editor of El-Gomhuriyya, another state-owned newspaper. He said Iraqis talk of tearing Americans to pieces if they launch an attack and say that the UN Security Council would be punished. "Such statements, although too impossible to come true, give the other side justification to fulfil its agenda, particularly as it will be interpreted that Baghdad is unwilling to comply with the UN resolution," he said.

Several Egyptians say the U.S. is unfair in picking on Iraq, which has suffered under tough UN sanctions since its brief occupation of Kuwait in 1990. They accuse U.S. President George Bush of using Iraq as a scapegoat for his own inadequacies.

"Bush is a failure so he’s trying to pick a fight with Saddam like his father did," says Mohammed El-Sayed, 31, a souvenir salesman. El-Sayed is sceptical about Washington’s claims that Iraq possesses advanced biological, chemical or nuclear weapon programmes, though he is sure Saddam has a few nasty surprises lying around. He says the only credible threat the Iraqi leader poses is to Israel.

"Saddam is like a venomous snake," he says. "If you leave him alone, he’ll go away. If you annoy him he’ll try to put his poison into you."

POLITICS-EGYPT: New Optimism Over Iraq

By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print |

Cam McGrath

CAIRO, Nov 10 2002 (IPS) - Egypt is optimistic that Iraq will accept the new United Nations Security Council resolution, which Arab officials see as the final opportunity to avert a war.
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