POLITICS-INDONESIA: Polls Next Year, But Election Season Is Here

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

JAKARTA, Nov 6 2003 (IPS) - The flags of the various political parties flapping in the wind here are putting the whole spectrum of political opinion on display ahead of next year’s key elections in Indonesia.

There are the red flags of President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle, known by its Indonesian acronym PDI-P, the gold emblem of the former governing Golkar party and the green flags of the Islamic parties, like that of former president Abdurrahman Wahid’s National Awakening Party.

In Jakarta at least, election fever is beginning to overtake the city – though campaigning at this stage is illegal. The presidential elections – the first-ever direct vote for the leader of this country of 220 million people – are not due for almost a year, though the parliamentary poll will be held in April.

But on the capital’s streets, some Indonesians express little real interest in the outcome of these polls, a landmark in the country’s transition to democracy that started with Suharto’s ouster in 1998.

“All the parties are the same, they promise us the world but deliver nothing when we vote them into power,” says Arfan, a taxi driver from Sumatra island who came to Jakarta three decades ago because of the poverty in his hometown.

Indonesia’s fledgling democracy has left many people disillusioned with politics. There is apathy in many places and a growing nostalgia for the old days of military rule. “We knew what to expect under Suharto, and there was law and order then,” taxi driver Mohammad explains.

‘Things were better under Suharto’ is a theory heard among some in this country, including from those who point to the lack of security and the enormous apparent growth in corruption as signs that democracy has not yet brought change for the better.

“Under (Bacharuddin Jusuf) Habibie (Suharto’s immediate successor) everything was under the table, under Gus Dur (the president before Megawati) it was all over the table. Now it’s take the table as well,” says a senior Indonesian journalist with links to the PDI-P who did not want to be identified.

But while many of Jakarta’s citizens may grumble about the current situation, this does not mean they want the generals to return to power.

“This nostalgia for the past doesn’t necessarily mean they want the military to return,” says the Australian specialist on Indonesia, Harold Croush. “But (it) reflects a general dissatisfaction with the failure of the civilian government to bring the changes that people wanted – an end to corruption, stability and economic prosperity.”

“Most of the current presidential hopefuls are tarred with the same brush – self-interest, in-fighting, manipulation and corruption,” says a Jakarta-based Asian diplomat who did not want to be identified. “What everyone is hoping for is a that during the next six months a new candidate will emerge – a Mr Clean – who could galvanise support and oppose the status quo.”

On the streets of Jakarta at least there is one name that seems to inspire that kind of confidence – the former general Susilo ‘Bambang’ Yudhoyono, now chief security minister in Megawati’s cabinet.

Recent opinion polls suggest that more than two people out of every three would vote for him if the election were held tomorrow. This is close to double the popularity of the current President, and is certainly worrying her aides.

“He has the right mix of intelligence and compassion,” says Abdurrahman, a journalist from Medan in Sumatra island. “Although he’s a former soldier, he was one of the reformers in the military and is relatively untainted by current politics,” adds Rahmat, also a journalist, from Aceh province.

Bambang tried to project the image of a man with a vision when he told an Indonesian audience in Washington recently: “We need not just a president, but a leader and leadership. Leaders should have concepts, strategies and agendas.”

An Indonesian academic says ”there is no doubt about his appeal among the urban elite and the middle class,” but adds that his small Democrat Party will not be able to bring out the voters, especially in rural villages, to justify his candidacy for president.

Some groups have come out to express concern about the possibility of political parties supporting former Suharto military officers in the elections. On Wednesday, after a network of 40 non-government groups, media and other groups called for wide-ranging reforms, Gadjah Mada University rector Sofian Effendi said: “Civilian supremacy must be upheld and the military must not return to rule the country even if it has strong discipline and leadership to manage the country.”

Even if Bambang does declare his candidacy, it is unlikely that either of the two major political parties, PDI-P or Golkar, could be interested in him as their bet.

Only the PDI-P candidate, Megawati, is a certain candidate at this point. Former armed forces chief Wiranto and Lt Gen Prabowo Subianto, former commander of the Army’s Strategic Reserve Command (Kostrad) are joining Golkar’s convention to choose the party’s presidential candidate.

In the parliamentary elections, the issue will likely be the size of these two parties’ votes, which party leaders then hope will be reflected in the presidential polls.

Some opinion polls suggest that at least one in four of those who voted for Megawati’s party four years ago will now vote for another party, although the PDI-P is likely to emerge as the strongest one if voters try to avoid uncertainty through a change in political leadership at this time.

Unless one candidate gets more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections, there will be a run-off between the top two candidates.

While there seems to be little doubt that Megawati will be one of them, the other could be anyone. “If a credible anti-Mega candidate makes it to the final round, they will win the elections hands down,” says a senior editor with close ties to the PDI-P party.