Headlines, Latin America & the Caribbean

CUBA: Everything Under Control…?

Dalia Acosta *

HAVANA, Aug 1 2006 (IPS) - No rumours had hinted at any bombshell, the army did not increase its presence in the streets, and Cuban President Fidel Castro did not seem any weaker than usual at his Jul. 26 speech. Indeed, his announcement that he would temporarily cede power took the world by surprise, bolstering speculation that Cuba’s socialist government is preparing for the worst.

While the Cuban exile community in Miami spent Monday night celebrating the prospect of Castro’s death, island residents went about their day-to-day lives, working to preserve a sense of normalcy. Many reacted with sadness, others lit up with private joy, but most carried on under the shadow of an uncertain future.

“There is no reason they should feel so euphoric,” Cuban dissident Eloy Gutiérrez Menoyo told IPS, commenting on reactions among Cuban-Americans in Florida. A former commander of the Cuban revolution who spent more than 20 years in prison here before going into exile in the United States, Gutiérrez Menoyo returned to Cuba in August 2003 and decided to stay to fight for change from within.

“I’m going crazy. I was up all night worrying about what could happen. This country won’t be the same without Fidel,” said Estrella López, a 67-year-old retiree. “He has been sick before, but it’s different this time. Anything could happen.”

López spoke freely with IPS, but most people contacted declined to comment. Normally, every street corner in Cuba is abuzz with talk; however, the issue of Castro’s illness was conspicuously avoided in public areas.

Cuban journalists noted that calls inquiring after the president’s health have been steady since the news was released late Monday.

Castro underwent an emergency operation for intestinal bleeding and, with several weeks of recovery and rest ahead of him, issued his “Proclamation to the people of Cuba,” a document unprecedented since the 1959 revolution, signed in his handwriting at 6:22 PM (local time) Jul. 31, 2006.

With just two weeks to go to his 80th birthday (on Aug. 13), the leader – loved and hated with equal fervour by his followers and enemies – handed over the reins for the first time in his 47-year run as president to the defence minister and head of the armed forces, his 75-year-old brother Raúl.

“I do not have the slightest doubt that our people and our revolution will fight to the last drop of blood to defend these and other ideas and measures that are necessary to safeguard this historic process,” stated Castro in the communiqué that also named others to take over additional tasks he had personally been handling.

The designation of the defence minister as head of the Communist Party and the Council of State and as commander-in-chief of the army is part of a plan drawn up years ago that, despite the opinion of some analysts, may ensure stability in the crisis that will inevitably arise after Castro’s death.

General Raúl Castro has the support of the armed forces, and a number of ministries are headed by former military officers. That means the defence minister is perhaps the only person with the clout and backing necessary to unite differing factions in the ruling Communist Party and the government.

Raúl Castro is a “guarantee of security” because he controls the military and the police, and “people see him as the natural successor,” dissident Manuel Cuesta Morúa told IPS.

The spokesman for Arco Progresista, a moderate opposition coalition, says the uncertainty in Cuba “is basically psychological” and is directly related to “how entrenched the current (socialist) model is.” Thus, the concern is “whether there will be change, or a step backwards that would lead to even more hard-line internal policies.”

“Raúl represents a chance to move towards change similar to that seen in China. The country needs to revitalise its economic bases and move towards pluralism. It is a chance to begin a transition in line with the wishes of many Cubans: towards openness, improved economic conditions, increased communication with the rest of the world, and freedom of movement,” he said.

Gutiérrez Menoyo also sees Raúl Castro as a positive element. “Raúl’s presence could open the door to certain changes towards democracy that Fidel Castro is unwilling to support,” suggested the president of Cambio Cubano (Cuban Change), a Cuban exile organisation.

He went on to say that “21st century socialism, the kind promoted by (Venezuelan President Hugo) Chávez, is based on democratisation,” and despite his “hardliner” image, Raúl “has a more objective perspective of these concepts” than his brother Fidel. “Keeping things the same will only further hijack and block the future,” stated the dissident.

However, the potential beginnings of “transition” from within Cuba are at odds with the U.S. government proposal for change in the island’s socialist regime. The plan was further developed Jul. 10 with a new report from the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba.

The report, which built on the plan approved by President George W. Bush in 2004, called for the creation of an 80 million dollar fund to support civil society groups opposed to the Cuban government over the next two years.

In addition, the report suggests measures to keep aid from being sent through third countries, recommends restrictions on religious travel to Cuba, and calls for a review of the rules regulating the sales of U.S. medical equipment to Cuba so that it is not used in Havana’s health assistance programmes abroad.

“It is Cubans ourselves who need to focus on Cuba’s transition. The United States has its hands full with Iraq, Lebanon and Israel,” said Gutiérrez Menoyo.

“This would have been the time for the separation of powers. Why repeat the same model that (Castro) used? What reason is there to centralise control in the hands of one person when there are other capable leaders? Raúl isn’t young either, and he needs to keep an eye on his own health,” said one university professor.

However, a retired historian suggested that “during a military contingency such as the one we are facing, the only option is to centralise all control.”

As it always has at times of trouble since the Jan. 1, 1959 triumph of the revolution, the island is keeping a wary eye on the United States and the stance that country could take in the defining moment of Castro’s death. The fear of military intervention is beginning to rear its head again.

Although Castro has demonstrated a remarkable ability to bounce back, the island nation is facing a future full of uncertainty. “I’m most worried about the things going through people’s minds. What is going to happen when Fidel dies? Nobody knows,” an analyst who wished to remain anonymous told IPS.

“The riots of Aug. 5, 1994, before the ‘rafters’ exodus, are an indication of how the masses can react. The same people who shouted ‘Down with Fidel’ began to shout ‘Long Live Fidel’ when he appeared. This makes it difficult to predict what might happen,” he said.

After the disturbances, the first seen since the 1959 revolution, some 30,000 Cubans set out on boats and homemade rafts to try to reach the U.S. coast. The crisis was cut short with the arrest of hundreds of demonstrators and Castro’s appearance on the scene.

Cuesta Morúa said “the new phase is about psychological adjustment to the situation – Fidel Castro’s temporary absence – as well as uncertainty as to where the country is headed. It is a combination of internal and external factors, which includes Washington’s position.”

The media have reported that the White House is closely following the situation in Cuba. An editorial in Miami’s El Nuevo Herald newspaper said “it is a time for caution and circumspection,” urging the Cuban immigrant community to stay calm and to avoid breaking the law.

Miguel Acosta, who practices Santeria, an Afrocuban religion, said in the past few hours people have come asking him to “do a little something” (hold a ceremony), some looking to protect Fidel and others trying to make sure he will not return to power. “I’m asking for health, stability and calm. We don’t want blood; we want peace,” he said.

* Patricia Grogg contributed to this report.