CHALLENGES 2006-2007: New Government Due in France, Maybe New Policy

By Julio Godoy Reprint | | Print |

Julio Godoy

PARIS, Jan 2 2007 (IPS) - This year French citizens will elect a new president and a new government. Whether that will bring new policies is an entirely different question.

Socialist presidential nominee Ségolène Royal and conservative minister for the interior Nicolas Sarkozy are the leading candidates in the presidential elections due Apr. 22 and May 6.

Both candidates claim they represent popular aspirations for a radical break with traditional policy. Royal built her candidature outside the conventional structures of her Socialist Party (PS), establishing direct contact with the electorate through the Internet and regular meetings with citizens. Sarkozy has spoken of the need for a “rupture” with French political past.

Some ten other candidates will be running to replace President Jacques Chirac. But with the sole exception of neo-fascist leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, they stand no chance whatsoever of reaching the second round of elections, according to opinion polls.

Recent surveys give Royal 31 percent of the vote in the first electoral round, followed by Sarkozy with 30 percent and Le Pen with 16 percent. The two candidates with the highest share of the vote in the first round qualify for the decisive round May 6.

Sarkozy, 52, has been minister for the interior for most of the time since 2002, with a 14-month term as finance minister in 2004-2005. He has based his ascension to leadership of the ruling right-wing party Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) on his uncompromising policy against immigration, and aggressive rhetoric against petty crime and immigrant youth.

At a public meeting Nov. 9 to mark the 36th death anniversary of Gen. Charles de Gaulle, Sarkozy said “I want to break with the French way of practising politics.” It is not clear what kind of “rupture” Sarkozy was speaking of.

During World War II De Gaulle broke away from the French government of the time to lead resistance against Nazi occupation. He is the French political icon of the 20th century.

But with the electoral rendezvous approaching, Sarkozy is now talking of both “rupture” and “continuity”. At a meeting with UMP members last month, he spoke of a commitment to “continuity and change.”

Royal, 53, too has distanced herself from some of her earlier positions.

During the campaign that led to her nomination, she spoke of the need for dialogue with all elected representatives abroad, especially in the Arab world. That would imply recognition of Hamas in the Palestinian Territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both considered pariahs in Europe and North America.

During a visit to the Middle East last month, Royal took part in a conference in Beirut that was also attended by a representative of Hezbollah, who compared the Israeli occupation of Arab territories with the Nazi occupation of France.

This comparison, and Royal’s lack of reaction to it, provoked strong protests both in France and in Israel. Under pressure, Royal cancelled plans to meet elected Hamas leaders, and met only Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.

Royal has also called for a renewal of French diplomatic relations with Syria as a way of searching for a solution in the Middle East. This would mean a break with the policy of isolating Syria that France has adopted since 2004, and especially since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. Unofficially, the French government blames Hariri’s killing on Syrian secret services.

Royal’s proposals on Syria could bring French position in line with that of several European countries, particularly Spain, Italy, and Germany. The U.S. Iraq Study Group set up to review U.S. policy in the Middle East has also called for direct talks with Syria.

Royal and Sarkozy differ on the Iran nuclear programme. “Given that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is based upon mutual trust, and taking into account the statements by Iranian leaders, the regime of Tehran should not be allowed to enrich uranium,” Royal said in a television interview earlier in December.

Sarkozy said he would support the Iranian quest for nuclear power for civilian purposes. He has argued that in the NPT signed in 1968, “the international community bestowed upon all peoples of the earth the right to nuclear energy for civilian purposes. If I am elected president, I will respect these rules.”

Neither Royal nor Sarkozy have spelt out policies on Africa and on development, or on international issues such as trade and economic globalisation. For that matter, they have not stated their position on domestic issues such as unemployment either.

This led social scientist Emmanuel Todd to call them both “the candidates of emptiness.” In an interview in Le Monde daily, he said: “They both refuse to speak out clearly on the simple but brutal problems people suffer from every day, for instance the international economic evolution.”

Parliamentary elections, which will lead to the formation of a new government, are scheduled for Jun. 10 and 17. Traditionally, the presidential election influences the outcome of the parliamentary vote, giving the elected president also a large majority in parliament.