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POLITICS: Iranians Prefer Economic Development Over Nukes

Khody Akhavi

WASHINGTON, Jul 11 2007 (IPS) - An overwhelming majority of Iranians want improvement in their economy to be the top priority of their government, and 68 percent of that nation&#39s citizens said they would give up their country&#39s pursuit of nuclear weapons if it meant normalising political and economic relations with the United States and the West, according to a rare public opinion poll of Iranians released Wednesday.

While the survey said a small majority -52 percent – of Iranians favour the development of nuclear weapons, only 29 percent of those polled viewed it as a high priority.

Support for nuclear weapons dropped to below 17 percent when Iranians were asked whether they would provide full inspections and a guarantee not to develop a weapons programme in return for economic, educational and technological assistance.

The poll reflects internal dissatisfaction over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad&#39s two-year tenure and his international showdown over the future of his country&#39s nuclear enrichment programme.

Western concern over Iran&#39s nuclear programme has resulted in stringent economic sanctions by the United Nations Security Council, placing increased pressure on the Iranian economy.

The survey was sponsored by Terror Free Tomorrow (TFT), a Washington-based bipartisan group dedicated to "leading the fight against terror by winning the popular support that empowers global terrorists," according to the organisation&#39s website.

"Terror Free Tomorrow&#39s path-breaking survey of Iran demonstrates that the Iranian people are the best ally of the U.S. and the West against the government in Tehran," wrote Ken Ballen, president of TFT, in a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed titled "What Iranians Really Think."

The organisation&#39s advisory group includes U.S. Republican presidential hopeful Senator John McCain, and Democrat Lee H. Hamilton, who recently co-chaired the Iraq Study Group (ISG), the congressionally appointed panel charged with assessing the U.S.-led Iraq War and making policy recommendations.

Fifty-eight percent of those polled also said they support Iran helping finance Shiite militias in Iraq.

While nearly two-thirds of those polled support Hamas and Hezbollah, 55 percent of Iranians said they would also endorse recognizing Israel and Palestine as two separate independent states, as part of a plan to achieve normal relations with the U.S.

A slight majority of support for nuclear weapons does not reflect an entrenched position among Iranians, but should be interpreted as a kind of defensive posturing brought on by the sense of military threat posed by the U.S, said Steven Kull, director of the University of Maryland&#39s Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA).

A 2006 poll released by PIPA, through the programme&#39s website, www.worldpublicopinion.org, found that while most Iranians want their country to have the capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear energy, a majority also believed Iran should comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which forbids signatories from developing nuclear weapons.

"There are a number of incentives offered [in the poll] in giving up the nuclear weapons programme, and it is striking how readily [Iranians] are willing to give that up for normalization of relations with the U.S.," Kull told IPS, referring to the Terror Free Tomorrow survey.

Iran and the U.S. have not had diplomatic relations since student protestors sympathetic to the Islamic Revolution seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979 and held hostages captive for 444 days.

Yet both polls reflect strong and continued support for the development of nuclear energy, ostensibly for peaceful purposes.

Several questions regarding the prospects for democratic opening in Iran, specifically whether a political system in which the Supreme Leader, Iran&#39s defacto head of state, should be elected by free and direct vote from the people, prompted overwhelming support from 72 percent of Iranians.

While the answers could be interpreted as a criticism of the regime, Kull cautioned against reading to much into Iranians willingness to replace their current government.

"I don&#39t think we can take the response to this question as clear evidence that they are rejecting the system," he said.

The telephone survey, conducted by D3 Systems, a private media, marketing, and opinion research company, consisted of calls to 1,000 random Iranian adults nationwide, in rural and urban areas. Interviews were conducted in Farsi by native speakers between Jun. 5 and Jun. 18.

At least 90 percent of Iranians can be reached by land-line telephones, according to D3.

Legitimate public opinion polls are unusual in Iran and face-to-face interviewing even more so, as the regime maintains strict media controls and has periodically shut down newspapers critical of their policies.

The last face-to-face poll to ask similar questions was conducted in September 2003 by Abbas Abdi inside Iran. Abdi, an influential spokesman for Iran&#39s largest reform faction and supporter of then President Mohammad Khatami&#39s reform plans during the late-1990s, was imprisoned as a result.

The most pressing problems for Iranians appear to be the state of Iran&#39s economy, and increasing isolation from Western nations, according to the poll&#39s results.

While Iran is one of the world&#39s largest exporters of crude oil, the country&#39s refining capacity is severely limited, and the government has been forced to import about 40 percent of its gasoline from abroad while offering the highest subsidies of gasoline to its citizens in the Middle East.

Fifty-six percent of Iranians polled stated that Ahmadinejad had failed to keep his campaign promise to "put oil money on the table of the people themselves."

In late June, the Iranian government announced gasoline rationing for private vehicles, sparking angry protests among citizens. Several gas stations were set on fire and state-run banks and business centres came under attack.

In response, Iran&#39s security services ordered local journalists not report on the protests, and authorities switched off the mobile text messaging system in Tehran overnight to prevent motorists from organising new protests, according to a report from the BBC.