BURMA: Junta Split May Hasten Civilian Rule

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Mar 30 2008 (IPS) - By promising to hand over power to a civilian government within two years, Burma’s top general has sparked speculation on the future of the junta that has ruled this country since a military coup in 1962.

“As the new constitution has already been drafted, it will be put to a national referendum in forthcoming May, and subsequently multi-party general elections will follow in 2010 in line with the provisions of the constitution,” Gen. Than Shwe told more than 13,000 soldiers, diplomats and other dignitaries assembled at the military parade for Armed Forces Day on Mar. 27.

But Than Shwe failed to announce a date for the ballot or reveal when the public would be allowed to see the final version of the charter, which has taken more than 14 years to draft. Criticising the constitution is illegal and punishable by a maximum of 20 years on jail.

Armed Forces Day, held in the new capital Nay Pyi Daw, commemorates the establishment of the national army in 1945, under the independence hero General Aung San, the assassinated father of detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi..

Before addressing the crowd, Than Shwe reviewed the parade standing in the back of a new limousine, especially imported for the occasion.

This is likely to be Than Shwe’s last Army Day as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, according to Burmese military sources at the ceremony. His health is reportedly deteriorating rapidly. He is often short of breath and increasingly forgetful. He is known to suffer from diabetes and hypertension; his kidneys are failing and he suffers from acute coronary problems.

There was little evidence though of his medical problems during his 15-minute speech, although his voice seemed weaker than usual, according to diplomats who attended the occasion. It was also shorter than usual, which may also reflect the general’s ailments.

Than Shwe’s speech was as hard-line as usual, calling on the soldiers to join hands with the people and crush what he called “internal and external destructive elements trying to sabotage the stability of the state”. He made no reference to the mass anti-government protests led by Buddhist monks last September.

“The Tatmadaw (Burmese military) is on an historic mission, to perform this important national duty of transforming the era and the system of government in a smooth and systematic way,” he concluded.

But underneath this show of unity is the start of a new battle for Burma’s future. This time it is not between the monks and the military, as it was last year, but between two factions in the army.In the past few months a major rift has emerged within Burma’s military government over the country’s political future.

At the centre of the conflict are concerns over who should control the roadmap – Burma’s plans for political change.The confrontation is now beginning to take shape – between those who currently control Burma’s government administration and the country’s economic wealth, and those who now prefer to see themselves as the nation’s guardians and wish to protect the country from unscrupulous officials.

The junta is no longer as cohesive and united as it was, as two major camps have clearly emerged. On one side there are the ministers and some members of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) who have major business interests and are associated with Gen Than Shwe’s brainchild, the mass community-based Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA).On the other side are the top ranking generals – loosely grouped around the second in command, Gen. Maung Aye – who want a professional army and see its main role as protector of the people.They have become increasingly dismayed at the corruption within government and understand that it is undermining the army’s future role in the country.

But the ‘real’ army, as these officers under Gen Maung Aye describe themselves, is going to have to act quickly if it is to remain a force to be reckoned with.The planned referendum for May and the election in two years’ time will radically change the country’s political landscape.The USDA, which is organising both the referendum and the elections, will significantly increase its power and control over the country’s new emerging political process.

Senior members of the army are increasingly resentful of the growing dominance of the USDA and the likely curtailment of the army’s authority after the May referendum. ”It will bring an abrupt end to the army’s absolute power,” said Win Min, an Burmese independent government academic based at Chiang Mai University. Key ministers and members of the SPDC have amassed huge personal fortunes from smuggling and kickbacks. Everyone seems powerless to stop them at present, according to Burmese government sources.

”They are known as ‘the Nazis’ within the top ranks of the army,” according to a Burmese businessman with close links to the military hierarchy. ”They have the money and they have their own militia.”There are many within the army who view these developments with increasing concern. There is mounting resentment and frustration amongst the junior officers in Nay Pyi Daw.

Many of the junior officers are divisional commanders in the late forties and early fifties. These are the army’s ”Young Turks”, who are alarmed at the way in which the USDA is growing in influence at the expense of the army. ”They are watching their unscrupulous colleagues, hiding behind the uniform, building up massive fortunes from corruption in government and they are worried that this tarnishes the image of the army,” said a source in Nay Pyi Daw.

In the meantime there have been no promotions within the army for nearly a year as Than Shwe has continuously postponed the quarterly SPDC meetings for fear of being ousted by a push from those commanders who oppose the power of the USDA.

“The top generals have not met [for the quarterly meeting] for months, since before the August and September protests, so during that time, apart from the appointment of three regional commanders, there have been no promotions,” said Win Min.

“The impact of this will certainly add to the growing frustration amongst some of the commanders who should have already been promoted,” he said.

This resentment is going to continue to simmer. They know that after the referendum in May their position will become increasingly less significant, as ministers and selected military generals move into the USDA and take up civilian roles in the future. At the same time they fear that widespread corruption will also destroy the country and its political stability.

”The real army is the only institution that can bring genuine democracy to the country in the future,” a military man told IPS. ”The new generation of officers represents the real hope for the country.” They would be open to a political dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, he insisted, as they see themselves as the real guardians of the country.

In the meantime, as Than Shwe’s health deteriorates, he is increasingly withdrawn and reclusive. His position is now becoming progressively more perilous, despite his carefully planned schemes, according to many specialists on Burma’s military.

“It is not worth risking a crisis when nature may solve it for us legally and peacefully,” Maung Aye recently told some of his close confidantes. But with the referendum only weeks away the army may yet have to move against the corrupt USDA lobby before it’s too late.