POLITICS-JAPAN: ‘Ruling Party Turmoil Shows Democracy Working’

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Catherine Makino

TOKYO, Sep 17 2008 (IPS) - After Yasuo Fukuda abruptly resigned as prime minister on Sep.1, there has been talk of a political vacuum building up in Japan. But a leading analyst points to the hot race for the ruling party’s presidency as proving the contrary.

“I would not agree that Japan is in turmoil,” says Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian Studies, Temple University in Japan and author of the well-acclaimed book ‘Japan’s Quiet Transformation.’

Kingston told IPS in an interview that Japan, at the moment, is ‘’a democracy searching a way out of political gridlock in the Diet (parliament) and witnessing intra-party competition for leadership, that is already decided’’. He interprets the seeming turmoil in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as a way of projecting the image of the LDP as ‘’more democratic and vibrant than the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)’’.

The LDP has ruled Japan ever since the end of World War II, barring a ten-month period in 1993. It is credited with overseeing Japan’s rise from the military defeat and foreign occupation to becoming the second-largest economy in the world.

But, as the party looks for a third prime minister in less than two years and one whose main job will be to lead it through elections for the lower house in less than a year, the once powerful LDP seems in disarray. Fukuda and his predecessor Shinzo Abe were both seen as ineffective in the face of an opposition which has repeatedly used its majority in the upper house of parliament to stall legislation by the conservative ruling party.

Japan, Kingston said, is a nation in transition. ‘’It’s cobbling together a new paradigm in a messy and prolonged process. It’s gone through the Meji Restoration and then U.S. occupation. It’s now in its third transformation, and it is being negotiated and debated, so this process will involve incremental reforms of an evolutionary nature.’’

Kingston is laying his bets on Taro Aso for the party presidency. ‘’It’s Aso’s fourth bid for the party presidency, while the other candidates are running for the first time,’’ he said.

Aso’s conservative credentials are formidable. His father was chairman of the Aso Cement Company and was close to former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, while his mother was prime minister Shigeru Yoshida’s daughter. Aso’s wife is the third daughter of another former prime minister Zenko Suzuki. And his younger sister, Nobuko, is the wife of Prince Tomohito of Mikasa, a first cousin of the Emperor Akihito.

Yet, the race for top post of the LDP has gathered extra attention because, for the first time in nearly 40 years, there are as many as five candidates in the race. They include a woman – another first in Japanese politics – Yuriko Koike, who has served as defence minister, is a former TV news presenter and a graduate of Cairo University who speaks fluent Arabic and English.

According to a survey conducted by the daily ‘Yomiuri Shimbun,’ Aso, who is LDP secretary general, may garner as many as 300 of the 527 votes to secure the party presidency. The results of survey conducted through the weekend by telephone in all 47 prefectures, including Tokyo and Hokkaido, were made known on Monday.

While 57 percent said they would vote for Aso, ten percent favoured Koike for the LDP leadership. Party functionary Nobuteru Ishihara and Kaoru Yosano, state minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, tied for third place with seven percent each.

About 20 percent said general elections should be held by September next year when the term of office for the current lower house members expires.

Whatever happens, the new prime minister will have to deal with a complex agenda. At home he will have to help people deal with soaring inflation, address the problems of the working poor and growing income gaps while also sorting out the lost pension records mess, instituting tax reforms and improving social service for a rapidly aging society.

Abroad, the new prime minister must deal with military ties with the U.S. and relations in the neighbourhood.

The U.S. needs the continuing role of Japan’s maritime Self-Defence Forces (SDF) in the Indian Ocean to help with fuel deliveries. Japan has been providing fuel and other logistical support for coalition warships in the Indian Ocean since November 2001. Under the special anti-terrorism law, it has been extended several times.

The five candidates have unanimously stated that they will make every effort to continue the maritime SDF activities in the Indian Ocean as part of the U.S. – led battle against terrorism in Afghanistan, citing Japan’s responsibility to play a supporting role.

In Iraq, however, the government has decided to terminate its air SDF mission there by the end of the year. The SDF operations are now coming to an end after more than four years.

“Japan has been looking for a graceful exit for some time and this seems as good a time as any,” Kingston said. “Most of the other allies have bailed out. Japan has been one of the most loyal supporters of Bush’s war despite deep public misgivings about need for and constitutionality of the mission and unease with the growing security cooperation with U.S. The LDP can score points with the public at a time when it really needs to unveil policies and initiatives that resonate with voters.”

But voters are increasingly looking at the centrist Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) as a possible alternative and many remember how it briefly but dramatically ousted the LDP from power in 1993.

‘’The public wants leaders who can relate to them,’’ says Kyouhei Imanaka, president of a printing company.

“We’re tired of their [LDP] speeches, we want to see action,” Imanaka said. “We are bored with them. We want candidates who say something we can believe in. They can’t understand how ordinary people think because most of them are born into rich, political families.”