Arabs Push for Stability in Lebanon

By Mona Alami Reprint | | Print |

Mona Alami

BEIRUT, Feb 3 2011 (IPS) - With political crises in Egypt and Tunisia overshadowing other issues in the Middle East, the appointment of billionaire Najib Mikati as Lebanon’s new prime minister is winning regional support in the hope that the change will minimize instability in yet another Arab country. Many questions are arising, however, about the formation of the new government and how much clout Hezbollah will have over it.

“It is important to realize that since the Tunisia and Egypt events, Lebanon is not a priority any more for the international community. Any political arrangement bringing stability will be preferred, as the region is already tackling several political crises,” explains editorialist Michael Young, author of the “Ghosts of Martyr’s Square.”

In recent weeks, regional protests have led to the end of the Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali dictatorship in Tunisia, which then sparked off countrywide demonstrations in Egypt that have targeted the 30-year presidency of Hosni Moubarak.

In Lebanon, Mikati’s candidacy was made possible after Hezbollah put pressure on Druze leader Walid Joumblat, a former main ally of March 14, to support the Iranian and Syrian backed March 8 movement, giving them a parliamentary majority. This change in the balance of power allowed for the sidelining of incumbent premier Saad Hariri, son of slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri.

Since 2005 and the assassination of Rafik Hariri – which is largely attributed to Syria – a political crisis has been pitting the Sunni-led March 14 against the Hezbollah-led March 8. The discord was aggravated by rumours that some members of Hezbollah may have been involved in the killing.

“Whether we like it or not it, the international community will back stability in Lebanon. No one wants the Special Tribunal to Lebanon (STL) – which is responsible for bringing Hariri’s killers to justice – to lead to a Sunn-Shia war,” adds Young. Mikati seems to be perceived as a consensus candidate to regional players. From looking at reports published in the Saudi press, political analyst and Hezbollah specialist Amal Saad-Ghorayeb explains that a schism in Saudi policy towards Lebanon – between King Abdullah and foreign minister Prince Faycal – may have led to the indirect support of Mikati’s candidacy.

The businessman also seems to have been endorsed by France, which considers him an “acceptable consensus candidate, particularly that he receives Saudi support,” according to sources quoted by local newspaper as- Safir. The United States warned, however, that an opposition-led government would affect bilateral relations. U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, accused Hezbollah and Syria of using “intimidation, pressure and threats of violence” to make Mikati premier. “The international community will not go to war over a political figure (Hariri) but over an agenda. Its position towards Mikati’s government will greatly depend on the contents of the new ministerial declaration and what it states about the STL and the fate of Hezbollah’s weapons,” says editorialist and political analyst Emile Khouri. Hezbollah is considered Lebanon’s most powerful military group; in 2006, it fought a bloody war with Israel. “If the international community does not approve of the ministerial declaration, it might block aid to Lebanon,” adds Khouri. In 2007, the international community pledged over 7.6 billion dollars in aid and loans to Lebanon in what was dubbed the Paris III conference.

According to both Young and Saad-Ghorayeb, Hezbollah’s mark on the new government’s policies will focus mainly on strategic issues, such as the STL and its weapons, putting aside secondary preoccupations, like economic and social agendas. In recent days, Hezbollah has kept a low profile with regards to which ministries it will fill with its candidates, leaving its allies in the Shia Amal movement and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement to take the lead.

“In terms of the economy, Mikati will want to ensure a certain amount of continuity to avoid panic in the market. There will be no major overhaul,” predicts Young.

Mikati’s nomination receiving backing from Arab countries might also come with a price tag for March 8, leaving little room for the new majority to pursue witch-hunts. According to opposition sources, March 14 figures voiced fears that they would be targeted. Mufti Ahmad Qabalan, a religious leader close to the Amal movement, called for a government of national unity that would “uproot the (previous) rotten political class” and hold accountable the traitors, which was an indirect reference to the March 14 government.

Even if a Hezbollah-backed government were to be formed, political analysts do not believe that it would result in media censorship, contrary to rumours.

“Hezbollah is already pushing for a controversial decision, which is severance of all Lebanese ties with the STL and the demand for its cancellation. It will not be able to beef up censorship, which would be a risky policy for the new government to adopt, one that I am not sure Mikati will endorse,” speculates Young.

For many analysts, the toppling of the Hariri government was significant in many ways. Saad-Ghorayeb points out that it may have brought an end to the rule of the (Saudi-backed) Hariri family, which has assumed the leadership of various Lebanese governments since the 1990s.

“However,” she says, “a Hezbollah-led government will not change much in terms of the Lebanese political structure, as the party has not brought in religion since it joined the political game five years ago.”

But for Khouri, the new government structure will certainly highlight one fact: Lebanon is increasingly being “drawn into the Syrian-Iranian orbit.”