AUTOCRACIES CRUMBLING

By Johan Galtung and - - Reprint | | Print |

This column is available for visitors to the IPS website only for reading. Reproduction in print or electronic media is prohibited. Media interested in republishing may contact romacol@ips.org.

NEW YORK, Feb 1 2011 (IPS) - For a long time, the US-Israel alliance (inspired by Isaiah 2:1- 5, “out of Zion shall go forth the law… and he shall judge among the nations…”) has created –by force or bribes or both–“friendly governments”, or “allies in the peace process” as US Vice President Joe Biden -Obama’s foreign policy expert- says. This pattern is now unraveling before our eyes.

The pattern has five layers: Palestinians inside Israel; Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza; Israel’s Arab neighbors (Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt); the rest of the 22 Arab states; the rest of the 57 Muslim states. Knowing that 350 million Arabs and 1,560 million Muslims cannot be controlled directly, they seek indirect control via the countries’ own governments. What they pretentiously call a “peace process” is a hopeless project, at most a short-lasting unstable equilibrium.

The unraveling has no precise beginning in time or space. It is rather a process, with the US policy of “peace by pieces” resisted from the start. Palestinians inside Israel have been ambiguous, partly bribed into accepting second class citizenship in a Jewish theocratic state. Palestinians outside have been divided, e.g between PLO and Hamas, West Bank and Gaza. After the revelations by Al Jazeera and The Guardian on 24 January of the moral corruption of PLO negotiators, Hamas is stronger than ever, with a base in Syria, which never boarded the US-Israel Titanic. Lebanon is increasingly ruled by Hizbollah; in Jordan, where the CIA outmaneuvered the peace-oriented Crown Prince Hassan in favor of King Abdullah, there is revolt. In Egypt much more so, Yemen and Somalia revolted long ago; things happen in Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, Sudan. And behind looms Turkey.

Of course, there are at least two other issues at work, not only the machinations of the US-Israel alliance. There are, second, the political issues of multi-party democracy with free and fair elections vs autocracy by one ruler or one party, and of human rights vs crushing freedoms. And third, there are the economic issues of increasing misery, unemployment and inequality vs sharing. The linkages between the three issues are often pointed out by demonstrators on posters about US-backed dictatorships and exploitation, about autocratic cliques and royal houses enriching themselves, etc. Which of the three is more important? All of them, of course. There is the US-Western-Israeli combination with such crucial points as the 1917 Balfour declaration, with which London established a Jewish “homeland”-not defined in international law- in Palestine, cutting Palestine into two with Jordan serving as a buffer state protecting Iraq’s oil. There is Churchill’s use of poison gas against Iraqi “barbarians” threatening civilization in their struggle for their homelands -familiar themes. Then Israel declared itself a state, more afraid of a peace that could limit its expansion than of war for expansion. Now history catches up with them.

Which of the three factors the demonstrators choose to emphasize will vary, with the distance from Israel, or the longevity of the autocracy, like 20, 30 years. Yet another factor is pure tactics, how to make more allies, by denouncing the USA or by downplaying that theme? Some US commentators are celebrating that there is no “down with US imperialism” in some revolts, and the focus on democracy and human rights, maybe planning how to manipulate elections and bribing with freshly printed dollar bills. Investment will be promised, known to benefit the rich more than the poor. Soon we will hear from China.

But right now let us celebrate. By and large nonviolent revolts in most of the Arab states in North Africa and West Asia reveal the fragility of even global and regional superpowers. They now face moments of truth with WikiLeaks truths that no doubt inspired and ignited the masses. US commentators, with a special talent for choosing wrong levels of analysis, point to demonstrators being mostly young, educated and unemployed. Thanks to education they can see through the massive propaganda, and being unemployed they have time for political work in the streets, and no fear of losing a job? Would giving them fellowship and jobs end the popular revolts? Or maybe, being denied expression in free elections, the common people find ways of reclaiming power?

I remember a meeting in Cairo on 18 December 2010, where I addressed Cairo University professors on world trends, including in and around Israel and the USA, and rising inequality, and predicted revolts. They said, our poor get poorer by the hour, but police and military make revolts impossible. I said that they might join, being themselves repressed, exploited and alienated. And exactly that seems to have happened -and not only in Egypt- after initial brutality. A shock for the powers-that-were, now collecting their gold for retirement in Saudi Arabia. Also soon to fall.

And the USA? And Israel? An Israeli general recently revealed plans to attack Hamas and Hizbollah in Gaza and Lebanon. But many more plans are needed. Attacking an Egypt guided by the Muslim Brotherhood? Maybe too much even for Israel and the USA, given that both hegemons have very serious political and economic problems.

Or -miracle of all miracles- could this wave of people reclaiming foreign policy, the polity and economy from the sticky hands of small groups, come to hit the hegemons themselves? And open for a real peace process, involving everybody concerned? Inshallah. (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

(*) Johan Galtung, a Professor of Peace Studies, is author of “A Theory of Conflict” ( www.transcend.org/tup).

AUTOCRACIES CRUMBLING

By Johan Galtung and - - Reprint | | Print |

This column is available for visitors to the IPS website only for reading. Reproduction in print or electronic media is prohibited. Media interested in republishing may contact romacol@ips.org.

NEW YORK, Feb 1 2011 (IPS) - For a long time, the US-Israel alliance (inspired by Isaiah 2:1- 5, “out of Zion shall go forth the law… and he shall judge among the nations…”) has created –by force or bribes or both–“friendly governments”, or “allies in the peace process” as US Vice President Joe Biden -Obama’s foreign policy expert- says. This pattern is now unraveling before our eyes.
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