UKRAINE: A Divided Country United in Uncertainty

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin

KIEV, Dec 13 2004 (IPS) - Most western analysts rejoice in what they describe as the latest struggle for democracy in former Soviet territory, but among the divided Ukrainian and Russian commentators the mood is slightly different. Some ask why for the West democracy is orange, and the blue votes do not count.

The divisions follow the controversial presidential election in Ukraine that has revived debates over geo-strategic disputes, and raised the possibility of a split of the country of 48 million.

Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich was officially declared winner of the presidential election in a run-off poll held Nov. 11, but a massive opposition protest held over 15 days in Kiev forced the Supreme Court to declare the vote invalid and order a re-run Dec 26.

Most observers agreed irregularities had been common practice in Yanukovich’s strongholds in the east during both rounds of the elections, but little has been said about voting anomalies in the western region, and the Kremlin’s accusations of double standards by pro-West groups.

A European Union (EU) diplomatic source who was an observer during the second round of the elections told IPS on condition of anonymity that she had also observed irregularities favouring opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, though to a lesser extent. "However, my report was ‘revised’ and those remarks were not deemed as relevant in the final version," she said.

The new vote will follow a compromise reached last week by the parliament to correct flaws in the electoral law. It decreased the powers of the president and reinforced those of the parliament and the prime minister.

It remains to be seen if the deal will secure a smooth vote, and whether the outcome of the elections will be affected by Saturday’s release of a medical report that supports claims that Yushchenko survived a poisoning attempt.

The negotiations over electoral law brought an important sense of compromise to a deeply divided electorate.

However, re-uniting a country with a split identity will still be the most difficult task ahead for the next president as voters entrench themselves in opposing sides.

‘Our Ukraine’ party led by Yushchenko embraces mostly reform-minded liberals, but also various nationalist movements with a strong anti-Russian stance, which might prove difficult to restrain in the future. These radical factions have alienated many Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Yanukovich’s support base in industrialised eastern Ukraine on the other hand fears losing its financial stability, and fears that the opposition’s liberal reforms will hit it most harshly.

These groups in the east are reluctant to weaken their links with Russia, and perceive the other side as a nationalist, West-adoring, and disregarding of their views.

"The intelligentsia supports Yushchenko," says Yushchenko supporter Tatiana Chernova, a medicine student, expressing a typical view from that camp. "Those who support Yanukovich of their own free will are simply cattle."

Nevertheless, most Ukrainian analysts downplay the risk that the country may be split in two.

The demands by three governing councils from eastern regions for referendums to review their degree of autonomy have been seen as a move to counter-balance the pressure exerted by Yushchenko supporters.

Soon after the Supreme Court decision, eastern industrial unions and business groups issued statements against any violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Their statement was intended to bring highly needed stability to business.

President Leonid Kuchma has warned that the country’s financial system could collapse. His concerns have been confirmed by worrying financial indicators such as rising inflation and massive purchases of hard currency.

At the international level, the dispute is focused on an eastward enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and over control of pipeline routes from former Soviet republics.

Ukraine is an important transit route for Russian oil and gas exports, and is highly dependent on favourable energy deals with Russia. The western regions need to attract U.S. and EU investment to boost economic development.

Support for NATO enlargement, initially supported by Kuchma, was eventually abandoned for an increase in cooperation with Russia. This prompted the United States to support the opposition candidate, who promised closer ties with the alliance and the West.

The United States is believed to have aided opposition groups through non-governmental organisations, foundations and private donors. Some analysts claim that these agencies might have provided logistical support in organising the protests.

Russia on the other hand provided straightforward financial and other support to Yanukovich, the candidate they thought would better protect Russian interests.

While the West and Russia speak ardently about spheres of influence, for Ukrainians it is more a matter of domestic policy. They are concerned about corruption, media control, and whether Russian should be considered an official language or not.

Ukraine cannot afford to lose any of its current partners, and the future president will have to reconcile the international imperatives stemming from the country’s geopolitical position with the expectations of an enthusiastic – or apprehensive – population.