PAKISTAN: Opposition Unity May Force Early Polls

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Muddasssir Rizvi

ISLAMABAD, Aug 31 2006 (IPS) - Although a no-trust move against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz failed this week, it has had the effect of galvanising opposition groups to press for early elections and restoration of real democracy in army-ruled Pakistan.

Political commentators said opposition parties could ride the widespread political unrest in the country that followed the weekend slaying of regional leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, in the restive Balochistan province, by the military.

Opposition parties are already gearing up for general elections, scheduled for the last quarter of 2007, but they could precipitate a snap poll by resigning en masse from the national assembly, Mohammed Najeed, a political commentator told IPS. “I can see it (growing unrest) as the beginning of election campaign of opposition parties, but what is yet to be seen is the opposition’s ability to bring people out into the streets,” Najeed said.

A series of public rallies planned for early September are based around growing public disenchantment with the government over rising prices, unemployment and the precarious law and order situation – particularly in Balochistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan where the military is fighting, what the government says are, Islamic extremists.

There are hurdles. The combined opposition could only muster 136 votes in the 342-member National Assembly for the no-confidence motion on Aug. 29, sponsored by the Pakistan People’s Party of Benazir Bhutto, the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif and an alliance of six religious parties called the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA). Bhutto and Sharif, both former prime ministers, live in exile.

But Najeed believes that the trump card in the hands of opposition parties is their threat to resign from the assembly. “If the opposition is to leave the 141 seats that it holds in the National Assembly, the government will be forced to call snap polls.”

The opposition groups say their real aim is to oust the military from the political power it has enjoyed ever since President Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in a bloodless military coup in October 1998 and briefly imprisoned Sharif, then prime minister.

“We are prepared to fight the final battle. We have the support of people who are suppressed by oppressive force when they raise genuine demands for more resources, provincial autonomy and political say in running the federation,” Abdul Hayee Baloch, a prominent Baloch nationalist leader who is part of an alliance of four Balochistan-based political parties spearheading public protests against the killing of Nawab Bugti, told IPS in a telephonic interview.

Pakistan’s 1973 constitution promises provincial autonomy, but the central government, dominated by the civil and military bureaucracy, and the politicians they have propped up, have been resisting regional demands and refusing to shed the overwhelming powers they have assumed for themselves.

Even now, the government shrugs off opposition protests as mere political gimmickry that is devoid of public support. ‘’They (opposition) have no agenda. All they want is to destabilize the system and derail the process of economic and political reforms that the government has been successfully implementing under the guidance of President Musharraf,” said Tariq Azim, federal minister of state for information, speaking with journalists in parliament, this week.

Musharraf, rather than being conciliatory over the killing of Bugti, declared that the state would use force against the agents of instability and anti-state elements. “Whoever wants to harm Pakistan, national or international, will have to fight with me first,” said Musharraf in a bellicose public speech, knowing that such statements would only anger people more.

Government callousness, according to political commentators, can be dangerous and casts an ominous shadow on the very future of Pakistan. “What happened in 1971 (when Bangladesh seceded) is being repeated now. The state and its protégés are not realising the sense of alienation among the masses of smaller provinces (Sindh, North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan),” said Sarwar Bari, a veteran political activist who now heads a non-governmental organization (NGO) working in the areas of democratisation, rights and good governance, while talking with IPS.

People in Pakistan’s smaller provinces believe that Punjab, with more than 55 percent of the population, controls much of the economic and political resources and deprive the other provinces due share.

Importantly, much of the military is drawn from the Punjab. “It is the duty of all political actors who believe in the federal system to initiate a process of national reconciliation before the existing sense of alienation transforms into violent struggle, as happened with Bangladesh,” Bari suggested.

Although opposition parties are ready for a dialogue with the government to resolve the pressing issue of equitable distribution of economic and political power and resources among provinces and that of more autonomy to federating units, they are not open to the idea of the military dominating politics.

“We want restoration of true democracy with parliament supreme. We reject a parliament that is a rubber stamp for the military. People are sick and tired of sham democracy that is concentrating power in the hands of a few rather than dispersing it among the masses,” said Khwaja Saad Rafique, a legislator who belongs to the Sharif’s Muslim League, when contacted by IPS.

While the government says that the defeat of the no-trust move is proof of its popularity among the masses, opposition groups believe otherwise. “We have achieved the objective. We wanted to bring to official record and public knowledge a long list of government’s corruption, mismanagement and failures. The no-trust move is a prelude to our campaign to oust the military-controlled government and its patron-in-chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf,” said Raja Pervez Ashraf, a senior leader of the PPP, in an interaction with the press.

What goes in favour of the government is the motley composition of the opposition. Key components are united on issues like the military staying out of politics and greater regional autonomy but stand miles apart on such issues as greater rights for women.. To many, it is an unnatural combination of conflicting political ideologies that may not survive the pressures of an alliance.

In fact, the opposition realises this weakness and are talking about compromises. “We were never this close as we are now, after the killing of Nawab Bugti. We are now together on a minimum common agenda,” Hafiz Hussain Ahmed of MMA told IPS.

But the success of any prolonged opposition movement also depends on the willingness of people and professional organizations of transporters, lawyers, workers, traders, and other groups to participate. “We are ready to take part in opposition campaign provided they give our demands a due place in their manifestos. We just do not want to be used and then forgotten,” commented Mian Abdul Qayyum who heads the National Labour Movement.