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EAST ASIA: Torn Between Japan-US Ties and N. Korean Bomb

Analysis by Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Oct 25 2006 (IPS) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s tour of Japan, China and South Korea last week to rally support for tough measures against North Korea underscored Japan’s growing military dependence on Washington.

”North Korea is talking about returning to the six-party talks but we want this to happen without conditions,” Foreign Minister Taro Aso told the press on Tuesday, referring to reports from China that suggest Pyongyang is ready to abandon a second nuclear test in order to hold talks with Washington.

Aso’s position runs alongside Washington’s demand for an unconditional return to the negotiating table by North Korea and the joint-stance is too suggestive of a possible beefing up of Japan’s defence capabilities with U.S. support – and this is a touchy issue in East Asia.

”Dealing with North Korea is now centre-stage in East Asian regional politics. The Japan-U.S. relationship stand is a powerful combination in the struggle to find a solution to the North Korea threat,” said Prof. Jun Lio at the Japan National Graduate Institute of Politics, a think tank based in Tokyo.

Lio said such a stance runs counter to the policies of China and South Korea. While critical of the communist state and supportive of economic sanctions, both countries want the U.S. to keep the door wide open for a chance to negotiate.

‘’Abe’s position is not necessarily going to gain peace in the region but rather stir uneasiness. What is necessary is a firm, independent policy based on reaching a peaceful solution to the crisis which, unfortunately, Japanese politicians who still think in cold war terms are incapable of ,” said Lio.

Experts also point out that Japan’s strong support for the U.S. position on imposing tough sanctions against Pyongyang works against the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) whose head, Mohamed El Baradei, has warned that enforcing tough sanctions will bring ” hardliners to the driving seat”.

Indeed, during Rice’s visit, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, long an advocate of the big stick approach against North Korea, claimed that the Japanese people have gained a ‘’deeper understanding of the alliance”, meaning that Tokyo would work closer with the U.S. for a joint missile defence system and also facilitate ‘realignment’ of U.S troops in that country.

But reaction in China, despite pledges from Rice and Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing to work for a diplomatic solution, was slightly different with Li calling for ‘’maintaining a cool head” and a “prudent approach”, while Rice stressed that North Korea should return to the table without conditions.

Abe’s talks with Rice were watched with alarm within Japan where the threat of a second nuclear test by Pyongyang has divided the public. Broadly, conservatives support Abe’s thrust to increase Japan-U.S. defence cooperation while others are pushing for a negotiated alternative that may ease East Asian relations.

Immediately, the government’s show of support for Washington’s tough line against North Korea has raised opposition ire especially because this includes moves to revoke a domestic emergency situation law that would allow Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force to intrusively inspect North Korean and other vessels in the region along with U.S. forces.

Ichiro Ozawa, leader of the national opposition, warned Abe in Diet (parliament) sessions last week, against haphazardly following U.S. requests to provide more support, calling it ‘’unjustifiable” and ‘’a misjudgment to take steps for the time being, just because the U.S. wants Japan to do something.”

The debate was highlighted in the Japanese media. ‘’We agree with Ozawa. There is no good justification for applying the law,” wrote the liberal ‘Asahi’ newspaper on Oct. 20.

Prof. Jeff Kingston, Asia expert at Temple University, Tokyo campus, explains that Abe has long been a keen proponent of changing Japan’s pacifist constitution and that North Korea’s Oct. 9 nuclear test has given him the opportunity to push ahead.

‘’The nuclear test has put wind in Abe’s sails making the public see changes in the constitution as legitimate to protect Japan. Kim Jong Il has done Abe a favour,” he told IPS.

Still, Kingston views the growing defence alliance in East Asia as actually working to contain Japan’s activism in the region.

”Japan has publicly stated that it will not go nuclear and this has been reaffirmed by Rice. The position sends the important message of security in East Asia under the leadership of the U.S.,” he pointed out.