Headlines, Middle East & North Africa | Analysis

MIDEAST: Barak Seeks Redemption in Run-Off Vote

Analysis by Peter Hirschberg

JERUSALEM, May 31 2007 (IPS) - When Ehud Barak announced earlier this year that he was returning to politics and planned to recapture the leadership of Israel’s centre-left Labour Party, he was greeted with a mixture of scorn and distaste.

After all, his brief term as prime minister, from 1999 to 2001, had shattered his one-time “wonder boy” image among Israelis – it ended with the collapse of peace talks with the Palestinians and the eruption of the second intifada uprising.

The opinion polls did not bode well: he would come in a distant third in the party leadership primary, far behind Labour lawmaker and front-runner Ami Ayalon. But Barak went to work, slowly but surely clawing his way into the race for the party helm.

Opinion polls in the days leading up to Monday’s vote, still gave the race to Ayalon by five points. The pollsters got the gap between first and second place right, but were wrong about the “who”: Barak emerged at the head of the pack with 36 percent while Ayalon, a former head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security service, came in second with 31 percent.

Now, going into the Jun. 12 second round – to win the first round outright, a candidate must get 40 percent of the vote – it is Barak who has the momentum and Ayalon who is playing catch-up.

Party leader and Defence Minister Amir Peretz, badly tarnished by the government’s handling of the war in Lebanon last year, came in third. But, having garnered 22 percent of the vote, he could play the role of kingmaker in the run-off vote, if he decides to throw his weight behind one of the two candidates.

Peretz had already made it clear prior to the primaries that even if he won he did not plan to stay on in the Defence Ministry. He had his eye, he said, on a “social” ministry, leading to rumours he was lobbying for a post at the Finance portfolio.

Now there is speculation that procuring a promise from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to give Labour the Finance Ministry could be the price Peretz demands in exchange for giving his support to Barak or Ayalon.

During the campaign, Peretz was particularly critical of Barak and on Wednesday he met with Ayalon at the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv to discuss a possible partnership. Aides to Barak, by contrast, said their man had no intention of meeting Peretz or of offering him a deal, which they argue could actually drive away some of Barak’s supporters.

Whoever wins on Jun. 12 will fill the vacant post of defence minister, which was promised to Labour as part of the coalition agreement. That is if Labour stays in the government. Both Barak and Ayalon called on Olmert to resign after a panel that has been investigating the government’s handling of the war in Lebanon issued an interim report earlier this month that was scathing in its criticism of the prime minister.

Neither man, though, is willing to say he will pull Labour out of the government. Both candidates know that Labour members are loathe to unravel the current ruling coalition for fear it would trigger an early national election. With the centre-right Likud party, under former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, holding a distant lead in the polls, Labour members fear an election will consign them to the opposition benches.

Barak, 65, has had to contend with party members still angry over his failed first term and with his image as an arrogant loner, unwilling to take advice. But his message to Labour voters – it is unlikely to change as he campaigns for the second round – is that as a former army chief, defence minister, foreign minister and prime minister, only he has the experience needed to lead the country.

He told Labourites earlier this week that when inside the polling booth, they should think hard about “who you want more in times of war” – a clear reference to the government’s performance during the war in Lebanon.

By contrast, Ayalon, 61, who was head of the navy, lacks political experience, having entered Parliament just over a year ago. Ahead of the run-off election, he will continue to portray himself as a straight-talking, clean, no-nonsense politician. He runs the risk of tarnishing that image, though, if he is the one who ends up sealing a deal with Peretz, especially if it emerges that he has promised the deposed Labour leader a senior ministerial position in exchange for his backing.

Olmert, it seems, will be hoping for a Barak triumph. Ayalon has been far more critical of the embattled Israeli prime minister, who has been badly damaged not only by the war but also by a series of corruption scandals that have plagued him in the year since he took office. With Barak at his side, as defence minister, Olmert will be hoping that he can recast his governing coalition and possibly even weather the final version of the report on the Lebanon war, expected out in August.

A stint in an Olmert-led government could suit Barak, too. He will want time to do among the general public what he has been trying to do among Labour voters: convince them that he has changed, that he understands the need to consult those around him and that he is worthy of a second chance.