Africa, Headlines, Human Rights, North America

ZIMBABWE: Dim Outlook for Power-Sharing Deal

Alison Raphael

WASHINGTON, Jul 1 2008 (IPS) - Ramped up pressure from the West, especially the U.S. and Britain, is having a perverse effect on African leaders gathered in Egypt. The harder the West leans, the more they circle the wagons around Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe.

Mugabe feels so comfortable among peers at the African Union summit at Sharm El-Sheikh that his spokesman Monday told critics to “go hang”, and his bodyguards shoved a British reporter asking pesky questions to the 84-year-old leader.

Thus far most African heads of state attending the meeting have remained mum, at least in public, about Mugabe’s re-election, which Washington calls a “sham” and the AU’s own election monitors have criticised sharply.

“The vote fell short of the African Union’s standards of democratic elections,” the monitors announced Monday in Harare, suggesting that “constructive dialogue” between Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is the best way forward.

Nelson Mandela and his select group of elder statesmen also weighed in Monday, urging the AU to declare the Jun. 27 election illegitimate, appoint a special envoy to pursue “robust mediation”, and pressure the Mugabe government to respect human rights and withdraw its recent ban on activity by humanitarian groups.

Mandela formed a group of “Elders” last year to “speak loudly and freely” about current events. Other elders include former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Brazil’s former leader Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Mozambique’s Graca Machel and former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

In their statement yesterday, the Elders noted that: “The crisis in Zimbabwe affects all Africans. And the fate of all Zimbabweans is on our conscience.”

Underlining the regional commitment to good governance and the rule of law, the Elders stressed that AU “leadership is needed at this pivotal moment. It can help Zimbabwe return to the greatness that inspired so many of us during its proud history.”

Zimbabwe’s history is precisely the sticking point for many African leaders, who recall with respect Mugabe’s role in overthrowing British-ruled Rhodesia in 1980. Since that time, Mugabe has ruled the country without a break.

His most vocal supporter at the AU meeting, Gabon’s Omar Bongo, is the only African leader holding onto power longer – since 1967.

A few heads of state, including Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga, have spoken out in favour of a negotiated settlement between Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), but thus far neither the AU nor the Southern African Development Community has taken a formal stand on the recent election.

South Africa, which under the leadership of President Thabo Mbeki has long pursued the failed strategy of “quiet diplomacy”, has now adopted a public stance calling for dialogue.

Foreign Minister Nkosazana Zuma Dlamini told African leaders gathered in Egypt that: “Zanu-PF and the MDC must enter into negotiations which will lead to the formation of a transitional government that can extricate Zimbabwe from its current political challenges.”

South Africa has been hesitant to criticise Mugabe due to the help received by the ruling African National Congress while pursuing its own goals of self-determination over many years.

But the flow of some 3 million impoverished Zimbabweans across the border has begun to provoke tension and social unrest in South Africa, reflected in several recent outbreaks of xenophobic violence.

Elsewhere in Africa respect for Mugabe’s earlier accomplishments, combined with widely shared distaste and anger over colonial rule, have helped to make leaders wary of criticising him.

Rumours about what the AU will do abound. One report suggests that the leaders will condemn violence and call for dialogue, but stop short of criticising the results of the runoff election.

The MDC, which won more votes than Mugabe’s ZANU-PF during a March election but failed to receive a majority, pulled out of a planned run-off just days before it was held, citing widespread violence against members of the opposition. Thus last Friday’s poll was transformed from a run-off into a walkover by Mugabe, who claims to have won 85 percent of the votes cast by 42 percent of eligible voters.

Although calls for a power-sharing arrangement are growing, the key question is how a unity government would take shape.

Many in the West look to the détente reached after violently disputed elections in Kenya last December. But neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai appear willing to take the back-seat in a unity government.

In a statement from his jail cell Tuesday, MDC second-in-command Tendai Biti vehemently denied that talks between the two parties are taking place, calling reports to that effect “malicious”.

On Friday, Tsvangirai told an African radio station that he has no intention of becoming a “junior partner” in Zimbabwe’s government after winning the March poll.

Mugabe, meanwhile, cites Friday’s election as his mandate to continue in power – despite numerous reports on Zimbabwean voters being forced by intimidation and violence to go to the polls.

Nonetheless, South Africa’s Business Day reported today that Mbeki’s envoys are hard at work in Harare, trying to broker a power-sharing agreement acceptable to the two parties and the AU, and are “on the verge” of a deal.

Washington is also calling for mediation and negotiation, but has other plans as well. Yesterday U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalizad warned that the U.S. will continue pressing for multilateral sanctions against Zimbabwe in the U.N., but may also impose stricter unilateral sanctions.

According to White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, such sanctions could include a travel ban on government officials, economic sanctions aimed at depriving the regime of external funds, and possibly an arms embargo.