Coffee Harvest Down by 50 Percent For 1995: COMMODITIES-BRAZIL

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov 9 1994 (IPS) - Brazil’s coffee harvest for next year is projected at 12.0 to 14.8 million 50 kilogramme sacks, although before this year’s drought, a 25 million sack harvest was anticipated.

The Brazilian Industry and Trade Ministry announced the bleak prediction, adding that damage from the prolonged drought would mean three years of low harvests.

Ministry official Frederico Robalinho said the estimate was a preliminary one, and subject to change, but was released in order to avoid further coffee market speculation.

The calculations are based on information provided by the Agriculture Ministry, local authorities in coffee producing provinces and the Industry and Trade Ministry itself, which coordinates the South American nation’s coffee policy.

A definitive forecast will only be possible in February, just before the harvest begins, according to Robalinho.

Given the estimated losses, authorities are predicting a six to nine million sack deficit in 1995, which would be covered by government reserves, currently at nearly 15 million sacks.

Robalinho assured that “there will be no shortage” in the internal market, but Brazil will export less than its usual 18 million sacks.

Authorities in the central-eastern Brazilian state of Espiritu Santo informed Wednesday that the drought – which began in May and has already destroyed two cycles of coffee – has not yet let up in the region.

Espiritu Santo is the leading region in production of conillon, the Brazilian equivalent of “robust” coffee.

Conillon coffee suffered losses of 37 percent from the drought. The province foresees a harvest of just three million sacks next year, although it has reached five million in previous years.