THE FUTURE OF THE CAR, AND THE EARTH

By Mark Sommer and - - Reprint | | Print |

This column is available for visitors to the IPS website only for reading. Reproduction in print or electronic media is prohibited. Media interested in republishing may contact romacol@ips.org.

BERKELEY, Oct 1 2004 (IPS) - If oil lubricates the global economy, its increasing scarcity is driving the development of new technologies, writes Mark Sommer, directs the US-based Mainstream Media Project and is host of award-winning syndicated radio programme, A World of Possibilities. In this article, Sommer writes that with crude oil prices soaring and turmoil in oil-rich regions, transition technologies like electric-gas hybrid vehicles are starting to look like a cheap price to pay for salvation. But while current demand for hybrids is rising rapidly, it could yet collapse if its early promise is not followed up by auto makers with major expansion of production capability to meet rising demand, increased R&D to refine the technology, and a wider range of vehicles and models to meet varied user needs. In the case of hybrids, the customer is literally in the driver\’s seat. If we insist on fuel-efficient vehicles and forcefully address our demands to both auto makers and government regulators, we\’ll get them sooner rather than later. And by increasing sales volume, we will drive prices down to achieve mass market affordability. In the process, we will save more than money. We\’ll save ourselves, the author states.

If oil lubricates the global economy, its increasing scarcity is driving the development of new technologies. With crude oil prices pushing past the milestone marker of USD50/barrel, increasing political turmoil in oil-rich regions from the Middle East to Nigeria and Venezuela (and increasing dependence on OPEC supplies), and perfect storms stampeding through the Caribbean and Florida like the Four Housemen of the Apocalypse, transition technologies like electric-gas hybrid vehicles are starting to look like a cheap price to pay for salvation.

Leading the race to bring hybrids to the highways is Toyota, whose Prius saw US sales double in just the first half of 2004. While the first hybrids, from Honda and Toyota, appeared on the market in 1997, they did not immediately catch on. Just 120,000 Prius’s have been sold in the past six years. But this year alone Toyota expects to sell 130,000 hybrids and 300,000 a year by 2006. Running its single Prius production facility 24/7, Toyota plans to open a second soon in Japan and perhaps another in the United States. Meanwhile, Ford is scrambling on board with its Escape, the first fuel-efficient model in its ”E” series of SUVs otherwise best characterised as Ford Excess.

In a global economy that takes pride in its responsiveness to consumer demand, prospective hybrid purchasers express frustration that car makers failed to anticipate demand and invest in adequate production capacity. As one wag put it, their intelligence must have come from the same agencies that failed to predict 9/11 and the absence of weapons mass destruction in Iraq. Detroit’s Big Three auto makers have never much liked the prospect of electric vehicles and have consistently impeded their development as a threat to an oil-based transportation system.

Pressured by stricter pollution and fuel efficiency standards, Detroit has been slow to invest in the essential up-front R&D while Japanese car makers leapt ahead. Until recently, the Big Three have put little into marketing Japanese hybrids in US showrooms because they make less on them than on their vastly more profitable SUVs. Wedded to supersized muscle wagons like the modified military assault vehicle, the ”Hummer”, Detroit seems not to have realised the light has changed. And it appears destined to repeat its costly mistake in wake of the 1973 Arab oil embargo when North American consumers turned en masse from Detroit’s winged chariots to Japan’s fuel-frugal compacts.

Not all hybrids are alike, however. The Toyota Prius and Ford Escape are ”full” hybrids with technologies that take complete advantage of the technology, more than doubling auto fleet fuel efficiency to 55 miles per gallon and reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions by up to 90 percent. Other vehicles marketed as hybrids, like the Honda Civic, are classified as ”mild” since they are incapable of driving solely on electric power, as does the Prius up to 15 mpg. Still others are dubbed ”muscle hybrids” because they use hybrid technology not to reduce fuel consumption but solely to boost peak performance. Consumers seeking not only to save fuel but the earth as well are advised to determine the difference before buying.

Hybrids are not an end-point but a transition technology on the road to a long-term replacement for the ‘infernal’ combustion engine. If fully utilised, conventional technologies could quickly boost the average fuel economy of the passenger fleet to 40 mpg, though a lingering North American cultural obsession with conspicuous consumption continues to impede implementation of these advances. Over the longer term, hydrogen fuel cell technologies are widely considered the best bet since they altogether eliminate oil-based engines. But they are ten to twenty years from mass production and continued use of conventional vehicles for years past the introduction of new technologies will slow cumulative gains in fuel efficiency and pollution control. With worldwide car ownership and travel set to explode during these decades, any gains could be largely offset by increasing mileage on the world’s streets and highways.

Given these constraints, hybrid technologies, if rapidly adopted, could bring near-term relief. Since their electric motors share many features with hydrogen fuel cell technologies, the development of hybrids will advance the longer-term research agenda. But while current demand for hybrids is rising rapidly, it could yet collapse if its early promise is not followed up by auto makers with major expansion of production capability to meet rising demand, increased R&D to refine the technology, and a wider range of vehicles and models to meet varied user needs. In addition, governments need to make large institutional hybrid purchases for their own fleets and offer tax breaks to purchasers to reward them for choosing an alternative that reduce the prohibitive costs societies will ultimately pay for climate change, air pollution, foreign wars, and ever-rising gas prices if they delay the switch to more efficient technologies.

In the case of hybrids, the customer is literally in the driver’s seat. If we insist on fuel-efficient vehicles and forcefully address our demands to both auto makers and government regulators, we’ll get them sooner rather than later. And by increasing sales volume, we will drive prices down to achieve mass market affordability. In the process, we will save more than money. We’ll save ourselves. (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

THE FUTURE OF THE CAR, AND THE EARTH

By Mark Sommer and - - Reprint | | Print |

This column is available for visitors to the IPS website only for reading. Reproduction in print or electronic media is prohibited. Media interested in republishing may contact romacol@ips.org.

BERKELEY, Oct 1 2004 (IPS) - If oil lubricates the global economy, its increasing scarcity is driving the development of new technologies, writes Mark Sommer, directs the US-based Mainstream Media Project and is host of award-winning syndicated radio programme, A World of Possibilities. In this article, Sommer writes that with crude oil prices soaring and turmoil in oil-rich regions, transition technologies like electric-gas hybrid vehicles are starting to look like a cheap price to pay for salvation. But while current demand for hybrids is rising rapidly, it could yet collapse if its early promise is not followed up by auto makers with major expansion of production capability to meet rising demand, increased R&D to refine the technology, and a wider range of vehicles and models to meet varied user needs. In the case of hybrids, the customer is literally in the driver\’s seat. If we insist on fuel-efficient vehicles and forcefully address our demands to both auto makers and government regulators, we\’ll get them sooner rather than later. And by increasing sales volume, we will drive prices down to achieve mass market affordability. In the process, we will save more than money. We\’ll save ourselves, the author states.
(more…)