POLITICS-EAST TIMOR: Concerns Grow About Transition After Vote

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Aug 16 1999 (IPS) - With two weeks to go until East Timor voters decide whether they prefer autonomy under Indonesian rule or independence, the United Nations and governments are making plans to minimise violence following the result of the ballot.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced last week that he would increase the size of the UN police presence in East Timor following the Aug 30 ballot – from the present level of 270 to 410 officers.

At the same time, he said, deployment of UN military liaison officers should increase to 300 so that they can “cover all areas” and coordinate activities with the Indonesian military, pro-Indonesia militias and the pro-independence armed movement.

Annan’s recommendations, which won acceptance at the 15-nation Security Council, reflected growing optimism that the August ballot – delayed twice, in large part because of violence in East Timor – would indeed take place, coupled with pessimism about the post-vote atmosphere.

“During this interim phase, the situation in East Timor will be rather delicate as the territory prepares for the implementation of the result of the popular consultation, whichever it may be,” Annan wrote in a report to the Council.

“Security concerns will not end when the votes are counted,” agreed US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in a statement in Washington.

“Indonesian officials and anti-independence militia leaders have suggested in recent days that a vote for independence will result in extensive violence or even a civil war,” Albright said.

“This is intimidation, or worse. It is unacceptable … The return of widespread violence to East Timor would be a needless tragedy.”

She added that the United States “will do its part to make the UN presence a robust one” in the aftermath of the vote.

Indonesia – which has occupied East Timor since 1975 and is in charge of security for the ballot – has stated it would accept the results of the ballot, even if as expected a majority of the 440,000 registered East Timorese voters opted for independence.

UN officials worried that pro-Indonesian militias, which have been blamed for a recent surge in violence, and their allies in the Indonesian military may react negatively if the autonomy option is voted down.

Some officials have begun discussions for a possible peacekeeping force to be deployed quickly after a ballot, although so far only unarmed police and civilian officers of the UN Assistance Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) are present.

Still, most Timorese leaders remained confident that Indonesian President Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie’s government wouild be forced to accept even a pro-independence result without major problems.

“Habibie may not be a Jeffersonian democrat, but he is a pragmatist,” argued Jose Ramos Horta, co-winner of the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize. “Those who don’t want this agreement to succeed…are becoming increasingly isolated.”

Although Ramos Horta acknowledged that some factors of the Indonesian military – notably the notorious Kopassus “black beret” special forces – had benefitted from Jakarta’s 23-year occupation, he contended that the Indonesian government had gone too far with the process to turn back.

Even Megawati Sukarnoputri – leader of Indonesia’s main opposition party and a contender to become the country’s next president – has retracted her earlier statements that she would not honour an agreement to allow East Timor’s independence, he noted.

Nevertheless, Ramos Horta added, “the international community must now seriously address the security situation in the territory” and make contingency plans “to intervene if necessary.”

Already, he said, some nearby nations, including Australia and New Zealand, are making plans to act in case of increasing violence in East Timor.

“The United Nations cannot be forced to pack and leave by a gang of thugs,” Ramos Horta said. “The secretary-general cannot afford to lose this test of wills.”

The United Nations – which conducted talks with Indonesian officials last week to plan security in the post-vote phase – has begun to press all sides to accept the results of the elections. At the same time, Jakarta’s allies have tried to convince it that Indonesia has everything to gain by respecting the outcome of the election, even if the independence option wins.

“It would provide a tremendous boost for Indonesia’s own aspirations to respected membership in the international community,” Albright said of the results of a free and peaceful vote.

“It would be an important step toward renewing Indonesia’s partnerships with the United States and other democratic nations,” she added.