POLITICS: Africa’s Big Men Cling to Power

By Ali Idrissou-Toure Reprint | | Print |

Ali Idrissou-Toure

COTONOU, Jul 16 2005 (IPS) - Most people in this tiny West African nation of Benin seem pleased that President Mathieu Kerekou has given up plans to run for another term of office in 2006. But they are wondering if he has done so voluntarily.

Kerekou’s counterpart, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, has not given up. Recently, the parliament passed a law authorising amending the constitution to allow Museveni to run for a third term next year.

Uganda’s move comes after a referendum in Chad last month ratified a law passed a year ago by the National Assembly to allow President Idriss Deby to run for a third five-year term in 2006.

Benin, Uganda and Chad all held presidential elections between March and May 2001. And they all re-elected Kerekou, Museveni and Deby to their second and last terms, in conformity with each country’s constitution. Kerekou announced his decision not to run during a meeting with a teacher group July 11. Over the past two years, debate about a constitutional amendment had raged in the media, and split the nation down the middle between pro and anti-amendment camps.

Kerekou officially ended the debate when he stated: ”The constitution says you’re president for five years, renewable once. You’ve embarked on an adventure. If God should allow you to make it through even one term, by the end of the second, you’re really at the end of your tether.”

He added: ”If you persist in wanting to amend the constitution, you’re not respecting the will of God”. When Kerekou returned to power in 1996, after having been beaten by Nicephore Soglo in 1991 and after serving as a military ruler between 1972 and 1989, he promised to place his mandate under ”the will of God”.

The present constitution, which limits the presidency to two five-year terms, was written by the National Conference in February 1990 and approved in a popular referendum in December of the same year. It sets 70 as the age limit for presidential aspirants. Kerekou will be 73, and Soglo 72, in 2006. The two thus realise that they will be excluded from the race.

During the two years that Kerekou’s intentions to change the constitution were debated, he never gave an official statement on the matter in Benin. The only time he ever alluded to it was in Niamey, Niger, in February, on the sidelines of the ECOWAS summit.

Jokingly, he said: ”Anyone who thinks I’m interested in changing the constitution has to first make me younger.”

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States.

While Kerekou himself was silent on the matter, many people suspected he wanted to amend the constitution because some of his advisors went on national television to justify the need for such a change.

One of them, Sebastien Azondekon, an advisor on economic affairs, suggested in April that it was more economical, given Benin’s meagre resources, to allow Kerekou to remain in power until at least 2008 so that the presidential, legislative and local elections could all be held at the same time.

The presidential poll is scheduled for 2006, the legislative for 2007 and the local election for 2008.

Even after the president denied interest in a constitutional change, Karim da-Silva, a septuagenarian businessman close to Kerekou, urged the head of state to ”reconsider his decision.”

Several private newspapers have run stories saying that, while they approved of Kerekou’s decision, he did not come to it voluntarily. They said Kerekou tried to change the constitution through various means, but he was confronted by ”a fiercely opposed public, which was mobilised against such a move.”

Editorial writers pointed out that a four-fifths majority of deputies or a referendum was necessary for constitutional amendments.

Kerekou himself alluded to the problems of amending the constitution. He said Benin did not have the 17 million dollars necessary to hold a referendum. He also hinted that he did not trust all the deputies who claim to be loyal to him but ”sabotage government programmes.”

He said: ”Since I know in advance what’s going to happen why try to make a fool of myself?”

”In fact, if Kerekou had been sure he could obtain a four-fifths majority of deputies, he would have tried to amend the constitution,” said Issa Mondi-Mondi, an analyst in Cotonou, Benin’s commercial hub.

Civil society groups have remained skeptical about Kerekou’s plan to throw in the towel. ”If civil society had not unified their voice, I think the constitution would’ve been amended a long time ago,” Roger Gbegnonvi, a spokesperson for a coalition of civil society groups, said.

”It’s possible that Kerekou did not want to amend or that he wanted to but changed his mind mid-stream,” said Reckya Madougou, president of the non-governmental organisation ELAN. ”What’s important for us is that every time the overriding interest of the nation is at stake, civil society should remain mobilised. We’re proud of having fought this battle which has borne fruit.”

Civil society groups have called on citizens to remain vigilant, given President Kerekou’s unpredictability. The media nicknamed him "the chameleon" during the years he ruled by fiat, since chameleons change colour according their surroundings.

If he had succeeded, Kerekou would have followed former president Gnassigbe Eyadema of Togo, Ben Ali of Tunisia, Omar Bongo of Gabon, and Lansana Conte of Guinea, who have changed their constitutions so they can run for at least one more term, if not more.