POLITICS-ZAMBIA: The Fiscal Conservative or the Firebrand?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Jacklynne Hobbs*

JOHANNESBURG, Sep 28 2006 (IPS) - Elimination of double-digit inflation, economic growth in the region of five percent last year, a reduction of foreign debt from some seven billion dollars to 500 million: these are figures guaranteed to earn the president of a developing country another term in office, not so? Maybe yes, Maybe no.

Voters who go to the polls Thursday for general elections in Zambia might very well decide that this track record isn’t good enough, and oblige President Levy Mwanawasa to return to practicing law again.

The reasons for this can be traced to a disconnect between impressive statistics, and the daily grind that constitutes life for Zambians, about two thirds of whom live on less than a dollar a day (this estimate from the 2005 Human Development Report, produced by the United Nations Development Programme).

While economists delight in a resurgence of the key copper industry, locals bemoan widespread unemployment.

For every donor gratified by belt tightening in the Southern African country, there are residents alarmed by understaffed hospital wards – this as nurses leave in droves for posts abroad, and the nation grapples with an HIV prevalence rate of 17 percent, according to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. Debt relief granted last year has liberated funds for social spending, but apparently not in a way that has really transformed life in the country.

Mwanawasa’s main challenger in the presidential race, former cabinet minister Michael Sata, has not let slip opportunities to capitalise on public discontent – promising lower taxes and increased employment. The Patriotic Front leader has also tapped in to popular frustrations with a threat to deport foreign business people, including Chinese nationals, accused of treating their Zambian employees badly.

Sata’s taste for controversy was further demonstrated when he reportedly said that if elected, he would drop corruption charges against former president Frederick Chiluba, who has endorsed Sata’s candidacy. The two men were founders of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy, a party that is now headed by Mwanawasa.

The current head of state made Chiluba and several other high-ranking persons the target of a protracted investigation in which several of the original charges have since been dropped. The former leader now stands accused of stealing about 500,000 dollars while in office.

Some have labeled the probe a witch hunt, while others have questioned the overall efficiency of government’s anti-corruption initiatives. Nonetheless, Sata’s talk of letting Chiluba off the hook reportedly drew criticism locally, while donors are unlikely to welcome anything that is perceived as condoning graft in Zambia.

Mwanawasa has countered Sata’s broadsides by accusing his rival of making unrealistic promises. Instead, the head of state is asking voters to sign up for more fiscal caution, although he has also promised to improve social services.

Three other candidates are also contesting the presidential vote; but only one of these, Hakainde Hachilema of the United Democratic Alliance, is considered able to make an impression at the ballot box. The remaining aspirants are Ken Ngondo, representing the All People’s Congress, and Godfrey Miyanda of the Heritage Party.

Opinion polls have given both Mwanawasa and Sata the lead in the presidential race at various points in the campaign, which has also been marked by concerns about Mwanawasa’s health. A car accident more than a decade ago impaired the head of state’s speech, and in April this year he suffered a slight stroke.

While Zambia gained independence in 1964, the latest election will be only the fourth multi-party poll in its history, the country having experienced nearly three decades of one-party rule under its first president, Kenneth Kaunda.

Multi-party politics has sometimes proved a bumpy ride. Mwanawasa won the 2001 election with just 29 percent of the votes, a scant two percent more than his closest competitor, Anderson Mazoka, amidst claims of irregularities that encompassed ballot counting and misuse of government resources.

Although a new electoral act was passed this year to improve polling conditions, some still query whether enough safeguards have been put in place to ensure free and fair voting on Thursday. Those who sit on the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) are still appointed by the president, for instance, sparking concerns about the independence of the body.

In addition, the respected Carter Center declined an invitation to monitor the poll – although other groups, including the Southern African Development Community (SADC), African Union and European Union, are deploying observers.

“The Center’s decision not to observe the 2006 elections is based on disappointment over Zambia’s failure to enact meaningful electoral and constitutional reforms, and the demands of current Carter Center commitments on election projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guyana and Nicaragua,” noted a Sep. 19 press release from the grouping. This non-governmental organisation (NGO) was founded by former American president Jimmy Carter to support various developmental causes, and is based in Atlanta.

Three years ago Mwanawasa began a process of constitutional review which recommended, amongst others, that the head of state be elected by an absolute rather than a simple majority. However, the process has floundered in the face of concerns amongst the opposition and civil society about its legitimacy.

As a member of SADC, Zambia is expected to observe regional guidelines on polling, which advise impartial coverage of candidates and political parties by the state media.

An Electoral Code of Conduct which forms part of the new electoral act gives the ECZ the authority to fine and even imprison journalists in both public and private news organisations who dispense biased coverage during the campaign.

But, Kellys Kaunda, chairman of the Zambian chapter of the Media Institute of Southern Africa (MISA), warns against putting all media under the same umbrella – given that when it comes to state outlets, “We own them and have a moral and legal right to demand fair coverage.”

“You cannot exert the same pressure on private media. For a long time, public media have been clearly biased,” he noted. “Public media have been seen to be covering government and the ruling party at the expense of other opinion makers.”

MISA is an NGO which promotes media freedom in the region.

Kaunda believes other steps are necessary to bring state media to a point where coverage is as even-handed as it should be.

“There are certain fundamental changes required…This is something we realised a long time ago. There is a need to change the legal system that governs public media institutions such as the appointment of boards of directors,” he said. “There is also a need for divestiture of shareholdings, so that the public can have a say in the running of these media institutions.”

Almost four million of Zambia’s 11 million inhabitants have registered to cast their votes Thursday; 150 parliamentary seats and many more council seats are also being contested.

Results of the poll are due by the weekend.

* With additional reporting by Nkosi Ngwenyama in Lusaka