Asia-Pacific, Development & Aid, Global, Global Geopolitics, Headlines

TAJIKISTAN: Key to Continued Secularism in Central Asia

Roxana Saberi

DUSHANBE, Nov 29 2006 (IPS) - Tajikistan has few natural resources great powers would fight over, but recent events show that foreign capitals are vying for influence in the land-locked central Asian country, whose internal stability is seen as vital to keeping the peace in the region.

“Tajikistan’s geopolitical role is significant,” said Shabdolov Shodi, the chairman of the Communist Party of Tajikistan. “If someone wants central Asian governments to be calm, secular and progressive, they should help Tajikistan.”

Afghanistan, China, Iran, India and Pakistan have long come face to face with one another here. But in recent years, Tajikistan has become a place where China, Russia and the United States have stepped up competition for influence.

Although Tajikistan is the poorest former Soviet republic, these countries have been eyeing commercial – and sometimes – military opportunities in this country of 7.5 million people.

For the U.S., the significance of Tajikistan rose after the Sep. 11, 2001 attacks, largely because of its shared border with Afghanistan. Washington’s attempts to establish a military base in Tajikistan failed, but Dushanbe allowed the U.S. refuelling and overflight rights to support its operations in Afghanistan.

Washington wants to work with Tajikistan to prevent the spread of Islamic extremism and terrorism in the region – an interest shared in many ways by Russia and China.

The U.S. is also investing in the development of regional infrastructure projects, including hydropower, roads and bridges.

Russia, however, has felt its power being challenged by Western involvement in an area that used to be under its sphere of influence. Moscow has kept a sizable military presence here since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Moscow also has ties to Dushanbe through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a six-nation regional security group led by Russia and China.

For its part, Beijing helps Dushanbe with major infrastructure projects and now exports many Chinese goods to Tajikistan.

The growing importance of Tajikistan to world powers in the region is not lost on secular President Imomali Rahmonov, who was re-elected to a third term earlier this month.

“Even the interests of superpowers coincide here, specifically, in the fight against extremism and international terrorism, drug trafficking, the struggle against cross-border organized crime. It meets the interests of all countries,” he told reporters on Election Day.

“Tajikistan’s foreign policy is a policy of open doors,” he added. “We will cooperate with all countries of the world.”

Rahmonov has been trying to do just that – balance Russia, the U.S. and China off one another, according to Mark Katz, a professor of government at the George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

“Rahmonov’s decision to allow the U.S. military facilities in Tajikistan after 9-11 helped him maintain some distance from Russia and Uzbekistan,” he said. “At the same time, Tajikistan’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization helps him avoid pressures to democratise from America and the West and to play off Russia and China at the same time.”

In October 2004 Russia formally opened a military base in Dushanbe and took back control over a former Soviet space monitoring centre at Nurek in moves seen as reactions to U.S. influence in Central Asia.

The U.S. has said it wants to see more reforms here, and critics say changes have been slow in coming. Still, Washington credits Rahmonov for keeping a secular buffer north of Afghanistan.

Another rival of Washington – Iran – is also playing a growing role in Tajikistan. Iran and Tajikistan share a similar language and culture, and their presidents have visited each other’s countries in the past year. In 2005, the volume of bilateral trade exchanges stood at around 130 million US dollars. Iran has also paid for major infrastructure work in Tajikistan.

In addition, Iran is an observer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and it is a member of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO), a trade and investment group that includes Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In fact, ECO is headquartered in Tehran.

Some observers, however, believe Iran’s present goal is to cultivate ties as part of a diplomatic effort to reduce international pressure over its disputed nuclear programme. Tehran says its nuclear activities are purely peaceful but faces the threat of international economic sanctions or even a U.S. or Israeli military attack.

Doulatali Doulatov, the president of Rahmonov’s People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan, declined to say what the government’s stance would be if those threats materialise.

“We don’t want anyone to attack anyone – not for America to attack Iran or for Iran to attack America,” he said.

And Prof. Katz says Tajikistan enjoys Iran’s economic aid regardless of the international pressures put on the Islamic Republic. “Tajikistan wants as much aid and investment as it can get, which hasn’t been much. So it welcomes whatever it can get from Iran and anyone else.”

Economic development here will be necessary to prevent future unrest in Tajikistan, according to international observers. After the country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it fell into a devastating civil war. The war ended in 1997 with a power-sharing agreement that resulted in the creation of a government led by Rahmonov and including the secular Islamic Revival Party – making Tajikistan the only central Asian country to allow a legal religious party.

Tajikistan has been accused by some of its neighbours of hosting terrorist training camps within its borders but this has been vigorously denied by Dushanbe.

Some critics say the IRP is too Islamic for government. More radical Muslims, however, believe it is not Islamic enough for this mostly Sunni Muslim country. Some observers say that this sentiment – combined with poverty and limited ways for ordinary people to channel discontent – could breed support for Islamic extremism.

“Tajikistan is not so important for what it is now, but for what it could be if things go wrong there,” said Katz. “The remarkable thing about the 1992 to 1997 civil war there was that it didn’t spill over into neighboring countries.”

“If, however, a revolutionary regime – whether religious or Tajik nationalist – came to power there, and if the large Tajik population in Uzbekistan is unhappy, change in Tajikistan could affect Uzbekistan and the rest of the region.”

Still, many Tajiks say they are tired of war and that the revolutionary change seen elsewhere in the former Soviet Union remains illusive here.